February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

And those are skewed numbers with the prolonged warm up. We could be at -8 now

[eduggs]

The GFS is bringing down the ULL at day 5 pretty far west. Could be interesting for New England days 6 and 7.

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

And those are skewed numbers with the prolonged warm up. We could be at -8 now

That’s not how it works…10 days of January was warm. The second half we froze. Nothing was skewed. 

[eduggs]

The AIGFS has 1-1.5" liquid total for its run across our region. 
Almost all rain 

[SnowGoose69]

Below 0 temps possible next weekend with that setup

[NEG NAO]

40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Below 0 temps possible next weekend with that setup

then a few days later a rain storm ? do you buy that ?

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The AIGFS has 1-1.5" liquid total for its run across our region. 
Almost all rain 

hard too believe that will happen so close after that Arctic cold shot next weekend - especially with the snow/ice still on the ground and the narrow window it has before the next cold front - would expect freezing issues close to ground level - potential ice storm.

[Stormlover74]

Euro shows it too. We rebound very quickly 

[NEG NAO]

Most of that falls on 2/13-2/14