It's coming 1/31-2/1

[SACRUS]

00Z GFS AI

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

00z GEFS

That's a healthy grouping

[nycsnow]

Just now, Nibor said:

That's a healthy grouping

[Rjay]

Just now, Nibor said:

That's a healthy grouping

If only the gfs wasn't an ass model

[SACRUS]

 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

If only the gfs wasn't an ass model

Need another step west coming up from the euro. It did it at 18z. One more here be great 

[psv88]

34 minutes ago, David-LI said:

00z GFS

I mean 12”+ for Long Island is not out to sea but sure 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Rjay said:

If only the gfs wasn't an ass model

This would kind of be an epic fail by the GEFS though.  I do feel most cases of the GFS dropping the ball on big storms the GEFS has tended to not really support iy most of the time.  

[SACRUS]

1/28 00z GEFS total mean QPF

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

UKMET way southeast

Normal for Ukie. 
 

im riding the GFS here

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If only the gfs wasn't an ass model

There are 2 types of ass models. The GFS is not the type I like.

[Rjay]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

Need another step west coming up from the euro. It did it at 18z. One more here be great 

I'm not backing down yet. I still think it's coming. The Canadian is fixable.  The gfs continues to improve even though it's a total trash model.  The ukie looks lost.  The Euro needs to show something by 12z tomorrow or the threat is in trouble. 

[SnoSki14]

GFS is best for these southern stream coastals but we need some major shifts soon or this threat is done 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Normal for Ukie. 
 

im riding the GFS here

As you should.  What fun is it riding the ukie here. 

[psv88]

Just now, Rjay said:

As you should.  What fun is it riding the ukie here. 

Haha yup.

its definitely coming. I’ll go out on a limb. Islip sees 6”+ from this storm. 

[SACRUS]

GGEM with the 2 low conundrum 

 

 

 

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

GGEM with the 2 low conundrum 

 

 

 

I want to say convective feedback but I don't know enough and it might just be a weenie coping term. So maybe someone more knowledgeable can chime in on that double barrel solution.

[Mo Snow]

Good westward trends from GEFS last 24 hours

 

 

[Rjay]

Just now, Nibor said:

I want to say convective feedback but I don't know enough and it might just be a weenie coping term.

It had no chance of making up here that run anyway. 

[SACRUS]

GFS

 

[203whiteout]

This thing is going south. This has southern mid Atlantic and Boston/Cape special written all over it. Not one model is being “stubborn” showing us in the heavier snows. This is not our storm. Will the precip shield expand as we get closer? Sure, but we are not seeing more than 2-4” from this set up. It’s too cold. I can see the Carolina’s doing well even


.

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

This thing is going south. This has southern mid Atlantic and Boston/Cape special written all over it. Not one model is being “stubborn” showing us in the heavier snows. This is not our storm. Will the precip shield expand as we get closer? Sure, but we are not seeing more than 2-4” from this set up. It’s too cold. I can see the Carolina’s doing well even


.

glad you fully explained your reasoning

[203whiteout]

Mostly a hunch honestly. Anyone telling you otherwise is lying. Very strong high to the north. When the trough tilts neutral and goes negative off the east coast and bombs out it’s off the Carolina coast on both major models. We need it to crawl and hug the coast. I currently don’t see that with that strong high and the temps during this storm. Hope I’m wrong


.

[Nibor]

Euro is east by a hair. Want to see the EPS more.

[DreamBig]

Seems west and deeper.

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Euro is east by a hair. Want to see the EPS more.

Really would want to see this close off over North Carolina and not GA or even SC.  

[Nibor]

9 minutes ago, DreamBig said:

Seems west and deeper.

West of 12z, basically in line/slightly east of 18z

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, 203whiteout said:

This thing is going south. This has southern mid Atlantic and Boston/Cape special written all over it. Not one model is being “stubborn” showing us in the heavier snows. This is not our storm. Will the precip shield expand as we get closer? Sure, but we are not seeing more than 2-4” from this set up. It’s too cold. I can see the Carolina’s doing well even


.

So your reason is it’s too cold? lol 

[Nibor]

GEFS vs EPS FWIW

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 hours ago, 203whiteout said:

This thing is going south. This has southern mid Atlantic and Boston/Cape special written all over it. Not one model is being “stubborn” showing us in the heavier snows. This is not our storm. Will the precip shield expand as we get closer? Sure, but we are not seeing more than 2-4” from this set up. It’s too cold. I can see the Carolina’s doing well even


.

A lot of us just received 15-18 inches of snow and the temperature never went above 12. Do better than it's too cold.