Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The sun is definitely melting snow right now lol. If your yard spends most of the day in the sun, it’s going. Even at 25 degrees. Sun doing sun things.

Driveway and roof are almost completely melted out 

Lol…not here. Go find a storm to Debbie. 

[CoastalWx]

Wolfie will be happy to know my street is completely snow packed. Feels like a dirt road in Hubbardston.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It says it outperforms all other models. I am riding this bitch all night 

NWP output from both the National Center of Environmental Prediction’s (NCEPs) operational job stream and several non-American NWP weather sources. The NBM ingests and bias corrects a host of weather elements and determines the optimum weights to be assigned to each model when generating a final blended forecast. Simply put, the NBM takes whatever models are available from 31 different model systems (for rainfall forecasts a total of 171 inputs) and combines the information into a single forecast. Intense research into model performance over time has given today’s meteorologists a baseline of known model biases. Verification of the NBM output has shown that this methodology consistently outperforms individual model runs over time leading to a more accurate and consistent dataset of available

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe it's weighted heavily from previous runs and on the euro? I honestly don't know why it has that output.

yeah those time lagged members are skewing it. But good luck with Kevin's 6-10 EOR. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

yeah those time lagged members are skewing it. But good luck with Kevin's 6-10 EOR. 

Ride it like a boar.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Wolfie will be happy to know my street is completely snow packed. Feels like a dirt road in Hubbardston.

Good to hear bro. Our sidewalks and driveways at my school are a mess too…usually it melts off much more quickly, but hasn’t due to the very cold temps. That’s all. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The sun is definitely melting snow right now lol. If your yard spends most of the day in the sun, it’s going. Even at 25 degrees. Sun doing sun things.

Driveway and roof are almost completely melted out 

So a heated black shingle roof and a scrapped driven on with salt on tires driveway is melted. Call me surprised 

[Damage In Tolland]

Man .. Wolfie is just ripping heads off chickens tonight 

[MegaMike]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Go to this link, https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-weather-elements then click the parameter you're curious about. If the field has a 'CONUS' option, click it. You'll get a table that specifies model weights. 

Despite the description, I still can't make sense of the NBM snowfall maps that correspond to their model weights. Something else seems missing... The map seems too high and I don't see much that supports those values b/n the SREFs, EPS, GEFS, and GFS.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

yeah those time lagged members are skewing it. But good luck with Kevin's 6-10 EOR. 

Still don't understand. 31 time lagged members that come out 18z show up on 23z output?

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

yeah those time lagged members are skewing it. But good luck with Kevin's 6-10 EOR. 

I don’t think you understand it at all 

[mreaves]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The sun is definitely melting snow right now lol. If your yard spends most of the day in the sun, it’s going. Even at 25 degrees. Sun doing sun things.

Driveway and roof are almost completely melted out 

I'm not going to deny the sun's handiwork but if your roof is almost clear already, you may need to get your insulation checked.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, MegaMike said:

Go to this link, https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-weather-elements then click the parameter you're curious about. If the field has a 'CONUS' option, click it. You'll get a table that specifies model weights. 

Despite the description, I still can't make sense of the NBM snowfall maps that correspond to their model weights. Something else seems missing... The map seems too high and I don't see much that supports those values b/n the SREFs, EPS, GEFS, and GFS.

Whomever designed it was definitely drinking heavily . 

[WxWatcher007]

I am John Travolta level confused at these last few pages. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its actually heavier at 23Z model lol

 

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We need to investigate what goes into this . NWS uses this extensively 

Well, they tossed it this time.

That map has me at 5"...here is my P&C:

Sunday A chance of snow, mainly after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 24. North wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I am John Travolta level confused at these last few pages. 

sun angle effects, only explanation

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

6 hr Snow below

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GFS	Global Forecast System Deterministic
HIRESW FV3	High Resolution Window (Finite Volume)
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WRF ARW	WRF Deterministic (ARW Core)
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[SouthCoastMA]

29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its actually heavier at 23Z model lol

[tomcatct]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There literally is none. 

Oh there's one..

She says it's gonna snow and i fucking believe her

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I am John Travolta level confused at these last few pages. 

No snow and all cold make weenies a dull

boy.

[FlashFreeze]

on my way back to South Carolina and coming down route 8 through Thomaston pretty good snow squall that’s not showing up on radar, I guess it’s getting me ready for the five or 6 inches of snow forecast for North Myrtle Beach

[George001]

I thought the models would correct west today. They didn’t, but it’s still a massive ocean storm where even a 50 mile NW bump would make a huge difference. It’s too early to throw in the towel especially for eastern areas. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, FlashFreeze said:

on my way back to South Carolina and coming down route 8 through Thomaston pretty good snow squall that’s not showing up on radar, I guess it’s getting me ready for the five or 6 inches of snow forecast for North Myrtle Beach

Please check radars and post and drive as safely as you can 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'm not going to deny the sun's handiwork but if your roof is almost clear already, you may need to get your insulation checked.

Got a ton of snow on roofs here…he’s all messed up. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3-6 for Atlanta and 1” in Tampa from this . Seems Normal 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

I thought the models would correct west today. It didn’t, but it’s still a massive ocean storm where even a 50 mile NW bump would make a huge difference. It’s too early to throw in the towel especially for eastern areas. 

I still think advisory is on table for Cape but its tenuous 

 

[NoCORH4L]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The sun is definitely melting snow right now lol. If your yard spends most of the day in the sun, it’s going. Even at 25 degrees. Sun doing sun things.

Driveway and roof are almost completely melted out 

It really is. I face South, and the last 2 days where the spots where pavement is exposed have expanded drastically.  Lots of refreezed crust ice at the edges, a tell tale sign of melting. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

OK this just came out.  What is going on? 

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGLet WPC get into his weed stash it seems . 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6 for Atlanta and 1” in Tampa from this . Seems Normal 

Tampa? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Tampa? 

Gulf of America effect snow . It’s actually modeled . Crazy