WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The sun is definitely melting snow right now lol. If your yard spends most of the day in the sun, it’s going. Even at 25 degrees. Sun doing sun things. Driveway and roof are almost completely melted out Lol…not here. Go find a storm to Debbie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Wolfie will be happy to know my street is completely snow packed. Feels like a dirt road in Hubbardston. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It says it outperforms all other models. I am riding this bitch all night NWP output from both the National Center of Environmental Prediction’s (NCEPs) operational job stream and several non-American NWP weather sources. The NBM ingests and bias corrects a host of weather elements and determines the optimum weights to be assigned to each model when generating a final blended forecast. Simply put, the NBM takes whatever models are available from 31 different model systems (for rainfall forecasts a total of 171 inputs) and combines the information into a single forecast. Intense research into model performance over time has given today’s meteorologists a baseline of known model biases. Verification of the NBM output has shown that this methodology consistently outperforms individual model runs over time leading to a more accurate and consistent dataset of available Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe it's weighted heavily from previous runs and on the euro? I honestly don't know why it has that output. yeah those time lagged members are skewing it. But good luck with Kevin's 6-10 EOR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, CT Rain said: yeah those time lagged members are skewing it. But good luck with Kevin's 6-10 EOR. Ride it like a boar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, CoastalWx said: Wolfie will be happy to know my street is completely snow packed. Feels like a dirt road in Hubbardston. Good to hear bro. Our sidewalks and driveways at my school are a mess too…usually it melts off much more quickly, but hasn’t due to the very cold temps. That’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The sun is definitely melting snow right now lol. If your yard spends most of the day in the sun, it’s going. Even at 25 degrees. Sun doing sun things. Driveway and roof are almost completely melted out So a heated black shingle roof and a scrapped driven on with salt on tires driveway is melted. Call me surprised 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Man .. Wolfie is just ripping heads off chickens tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Go to this link, https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-weather-elements then click the parameter you're curious about. If the field has a 'CONUS' option, click it. You'll get a table that specifies model weights. Despite the description, I still can't make sense of the NBM snowfall maps that correspond to their model weights. Something else seems missing... The map seems too high and I don't see much that supports those values b/n the SREFs, EPS, GEFS, and GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: yeah those time lagged members are skewing it. But good luck with Kevin's 6-10 EOR. Still don't understand. 31 time lagged members that come out 18z show up on 23z output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: yeah those time lagged members are skewing it. But good luck with Kevin's 6-10 EOR. I don’t think you understand it at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The sun is definitely melting snow right now lol. If your yard spends most of the day in the sun, it’s going. Even at 25 degrees. Sun doing sun things. Driveway and roof are almost completely melted out I'm not going to deny the sun's handiwork but if your roof is almost clear already, you may need to get your insulation checked. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, MegaMike said: Go to this link, https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/nbm-weather-elements then click the parameter you're curious about. If the field has a 'CONUS' option, click it. You'll get a table that specifies model weights. Despite the description, I still can't make sense of the NBM snowfall maps that correspond to their model weights. Something else seems missing... The map seems too high and I don't see much that supports those values b/n the SREFs, EPS, GEFS, and GFS. Whomever designed it was definitely drinking heavily . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I am John Travolta level confused at these last few pages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its actually heavier at 23Z model lol 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We need to investigate what goes into this . NWS uses this extensively Well, they tossed it this time. That map has me at 5"...here is my P&C: Sunday A chance of snow, mainly after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 24. North wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I am John Travolta level confused at these last few pages. sun angle effects, only explanation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, MegaMike said: 6 hr Snow below ECMWFE P1 undefined ECMWFE P10 undefined ECMWFE P11 undefined ECMWFE P12 undefined ECMWFE P13 undefined ECMWFE P14 undefined ECMWFE P15 undefined ECMWFE P16 undefined ECMWFE P17 undefined ECMWFE P18 undefined ECMWFE P19 undefined ECMWFE P2 undefined ECMWFE P20 undefined ECMWFE P21 undefined ECMWFE P22 undefined ECMWFE P23 undefined ECMWFE P24 undefined ECMWFE P25 undefined ECMWFE P26 undefined ECMWFE P27 undefined ECMWFE P28 undefined ECMWFE P29 undefined ECMWFE P3 undefined ECMWFE P30 undefined ECMWFE P31 undefined ECMWFE P32 undefined ECMWFE P33 undefined ECMWFE P34 undefined ECMWFE P35 undefined ECMWFE P36 undefined ECMWFE P37 undefined ECMWFE P38 undefined ECMWFE P39 undefined ECMWFE P4 undefined ECMWFE P40 undefined ECMWFE P41 undefined ECMWFE P42 undefined ECMWFE P43 undefined ECMWFE P44 undefined ECMWFE P45 undefined ECMWFE P46 undefined ECMWFE P47 undefined ECMWFE P48 undefined ECMWFE P49 undefined ECMWFE P5 undefined ECMWFE P50 undefined ECMWFE P6 undefined ECMWFE P7 undefined ECMWFE P8 undefined ECMWFE P9 undefined GEFS P1 undefined GEFS P10 undefined GEFS P11 undefined GEFS P12 undefined GEFS P13 undefined GEFS P14 undefined GEFS P15 undefined GEFS P16 undefined GEFS P17 undefined GEFS P18 undefined GEFS P19 undefined GEFS P2 undefined GEFS P20 undefined GEFS P21 undefined GEFS P22 undefined GEFS P23 undefined GEFS P24 undefined GEFS P25 undefined GEFS P26 undefined GEFS P27 undefined GEFS P28 undefined GEFS P29 undefined GEFS P3 undefined GEFS P30 undefined GEFS P4 undefined GEFS P5 undefined GEFS P6 undefined GEFS P7 undefined GEFS P8 undefined GEFS P9 undefined GFS Global Forecast System Deterministic HIRESW FV3 High Resolution Window (Finite Volume) HRRR High Resolution Rapid Refresh HRRRX High Resolution Rapid Refresh Extended Run NAMH North American Mesoscale (Nest) RAP Rapid Refresh RAPX Rapid Refresh Extended Run SREF ARW N1 undefined SREF ARW N2 undefined SREF ARW N3 undefined SREF ARW N4 undefined SREF ARW N6 undefined SREF ARW P1 undefined SREF ARW P2 undefined SREF ARW P3 undefined SREF ARW P4 undefined SREF ARW P6 undefined WRF ARW WRF Deterministic (ARW Core) WRF MEM2 WRF Deterministic (ARW Core Member 2) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Its actually heavier at 23Z model lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There literally is none. Oh there's one.. She says it's gonna snow and i fucking believe her 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I am John Travolta level confused at these last few pages. No snow and all cold make weenies a dull boy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlashFreeze Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago on my way back to South Carolina and coming down route 8 through Thomaston pretty good snow squall that’s not showing up on radar, I guess it’s getting me ready for the five or 6 inches of snow forecast for North Myrtle Beach 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I thought the models would correct west today. They didn’t, but it’s still a massive ocean storm where even a 50 mile NW bump would make a huge difference. It’s too early to throw in the towel especially for eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, FlashFreeze said: on my way back to South Carolina and coming down route 8 through Thomaston pretty good snow squall that’s not showing up on radar, I guess it’s getting me ready for the five or 6 inches of snow forecast for North Myrtle Beach Please check radars and post and drive as safely as you can 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 minutes ago, mreaves said: I'm not going to deny the sun's handiwork but if your roof is almost clear already, you may need to get your insulation checked. Got a ton of snow on roofs here…he’s all messed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3-6 for Atlanta and 1” in Tampa from this . Seems Normal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, George001 said: I thought the models would correct west today. It didn’t, but it’s still a massive ocean storm where even a 50 mile NW bump would make a huge difference. It’s too early to throw in the towel especially for eastern areas. I still think advisory is on table for Cape but its tenuous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The sun is definitely melting snow right now lol. If your yard spends most of the day in the sun, it’s going. Even at 25 degrees. Sun doing sun things. Driveway and roof are almost completely melted out It really is. I face South, and the last 2 days where the spots where pavement is exposed have expanded drastically. Lots of refreezed crust ice at the edges, a tell tale sign of melting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Ginx snewx said: OK this just came out. What is going on? @RUNNAWAYICEBERGLet WPC get into his weed stash it seems . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 3-6 for Atlanta and 1” in Tampa from this . Seems Normal Tampa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Tampa? Gulf of America effect snow . It’s actually modeled . Crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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