Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[ineedsnow]

ICON looking better at hr66 but was pretty meh at 12z

[SouthCoastMA]

The ICON should be better, but almost had to be. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I put phone down for 20 minutes , logged back on , saw all the posts and knew the NAM was good . This place is freaking classic 

[Wxbear25]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just keep amplifying that western ridge...lets drop the kicker s/w like due south so our storm fujiwaras around it...almost like Jan 27, 2015. 

Yeah. Synoptically the 18z ICON and NAM look very similar in terms of positioning of the main ULL, but the ridging both over the West Coast and off the Eastern Seaboard are definitely lower on the ICON, so I’d imagine it won’t look nearly as good as the NAM would have extrapolated

[ineedsnow]

18z ICON  Way West of 12z but 12z was so far east

[Ginx snewx]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Did you advise the Weymouth DPW that? They came by to widen my street and put all this shit at the end of my driveway. 

Omg that sucks lol. 

[dendrite]

ICON didn’t dig very south again. Not believing it until other models do the same. 

[ineedsnow]

not enough on the ICON but closer

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Bubbalinski in the game for 6-10”.

I’m riding the Euro/GFS and NBM. See if we can stabilize and improve on what is modeled.

LFG 

[Kitz Craver]

Icon still a whiff but at least it didn’t shoot straight to Bermuda this run

[Baroclinic Zone]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I think NAM would be close to a slay here. But, NAM

That was a tasty look. We look but don’t touch.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, Digityman said:

Please pardon my ignorance in advance.... my only real model knowledge is what I've read on this forum in the last 14 years.

In your post are you referring to the low being off of Myrtle Beach, SC on the NAM vs Morehead City, NC on the Euro? 
I was playing with Pivotal and am wondering if this is what you are referring to.
(~130 miles west longitudinally)

I was comparing the 18z Nam with the 12z Euro at 500MB

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I put phone down for 20 minutes , logged back on , saw all the posts and knew the NAM was good . This place is freaking classic 

Kev its Aerosmith in here.  Same old song and dance my friend 

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

ICON didn’t dig very south again. Not believing it until other models do the same. 

It seems like it gets the ULL to the same latitude as the GFS and NAM between like Atlanta and Greenville, no? just not as strong with the feature

[Hoth]

Perhaps my memory is wrong, but didn’t the models struggle with convection and multiple lows before the Jan ‘18 storm? It was practically go time when they converged on the western low as dominant. Maybe this is something similar. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z ICON  Way West of 12z but 12z was so far east

Take that as a huge win

[dryslot]

Maybe a trend west on guidance is starting at 18z.

[ineedsnow]

ICON EPS shifting west of 12z

[MaineJayhawk]

37 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

NAM is showing the way...

 

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM went east of 12z....but I thought 12z looked pretty amped. The ridge out west is better though, so we may be able to slingshot it north. 

[mahk_webstah]

36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Spend all that time cleaning it out and they plow 36 hrs later.

Are you new to this? It isn’t that why one has children?

[Baroclinic Zone]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I put phone down for 20 minutes , logged back on , saw all the posts and knew the NAM was good . This place is freaking classic 

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Kev its Aerosmith in here.  Same old song and dance my friend 

That would make for a great thread. Place a song to each forum member 

[JKEisMan]

Man I just looked at the Rufus (RRFS), what a pile of monkey dung.

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

It seems like it gets the ULL to the same latitude as the GFS and NAM between like Atlanta and Greenville, no? just not as strong with the feature

Fricken pivotal reset me back to 12z

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Man I just looked at the Rufus (RRFS), what a pile of monkey dung.

LOL it has no storm at all.

[mikem81]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM went east of 12z....but I thought 12z looked pretty amped. The ridge out west is better though, so we may be able to slingshot it north. 

I thought the 18Z RGEM was much improved and about 100 miles north with precip shield int SNJ

 

[JKEisMan]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

LOL it has no storm at all.

It’s either a sign that this setup is tricky/hard to model or that model is a pos.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

I thought the 18Z RGEM was much improved and about 100 miles north with precip shield int SNJ

 

We cant compare 84h on the 18z to 12z since it doesn't go beyond 84...but you are correct that 78h on the 18z run was north of the 12z run but it was also east...so I think in the end it wouldn't end up as good, but probably still a hit. Anyways, not really relevant anyway given the model itself isn't that useful beyond 48. 

[ineedsnow]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM went east of 12z....but I thought 12z looked pretty amped. The ridge out west is better though, so we may be able to slingshot it north. 

Seemed the Reggie had competing lows though