The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[BornAgain13]

0z GEFS

[AirNelson39]

Dang it, I don’t like it when we have several models in agreement this far out. Fingers crossed this storm will be different but seeing clown maps like this 5 days out sucks!!

[HKY_WX]

This solution is pretty incredible. Its literally a piece of the PV lobe breaking off and phasing with a piece of energy in the STJ. The heights would be anomalously low for our area if it were to actually occur. Its extremely rare and also why we should understand the high bust potential of this. Let's hope it works out for a change. 

[HWY316wx]

37 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

1-3' in a lot of areas.

 

This clown map looks like a guitar.  I think TWC should name this one Prince.  

I will see myself out.

[chris624wx]

3 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

This clown map looks like a guitar.  I think TWC should name this one Prince.  

I will see myself out.

Apparently the next name on their list is Gianna

[wncsnow]

AI Euro is slightly weaker and less precipitation. Not really east just not as negative tilt. Meh

[Snowncanes]

Not bad, just not the Canadian lol. Also this is 10:1 so up those totals a bit 

[lilj4425]

It’s interesting that the Google weather model once again is in the lead and the other models appear to be playing catch up. What is it about that model that is making it verify better than the other weather models? Is there more money being put into it by the private sector or something that is causing it to use better and more up to date technology?

[HKY_WX]

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

It’s interesting that the Google weather model once again is in the lead and the other models appear to be playing catch up. What is it about that model that is making it verify better than the other weather models? Is there more money being put into it by the private sector or something that is causing it to use better and more up to date technology?

I wouldn't crown it yet. The sample size is not very large.

[wasnow215]

0z Euro Kuchera?

[Snowncanes]

Euro OP is a little east on H5 starting about 72 hours. A little too far east and positive tilt  to really bomb it out but not too far off. Still time. Honestly makes me feel better not everything has us in the bullseye at this point lol

[NC_hailstorm]

Euro goes neutral about 117-120 and the shortwave is further east.Not a whiff but the timing could be a tick better.

[Snowncanes]

I don’t have the kuchera but here’s 10:1

[WXNewton]

00z Euro kuchera map...

 

[BornAgain13]

Definitely not good runs on the Euro group during the night going more away.

[BornAgain13]

6z icon is OTS. 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS drops the hammer. Big run incoming 

[JoshM]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS drops the hammer. Big run incoming 

 

[WiseWeather]

So we got a couple east…. And a couple west. Get the coffee pot ready and some 50lb test line. We need to reel this one in.


.

[BooneWX]

Weathernext with another tick east 

[Met1985]

This weathernext needs a bigger sample size than 2 storms. There are a lot of variables and I'd like to see verification scores. Are there any such thing or is this just by word of mouth because some be riding it like it's a perfect model... 

[Met1985]

Also on that note I wouldn't believe anything the GFS spits out until about 2 days before the event.

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Weathernext with another tick east 

Probably a good thing this far out.

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

This weathernext needs a bigger sample size than 2 storms. There are a lot of variables and I'd like to see verification scores. Are there any such thing or is this just by word of mouth because some be riding it like it's a perfect model... 

Weathernext has been outpacing other suite’s since tropical season, and not even relatively close either. I had a chart a while back, I’ll look today and see if it’s still on my computer and share it with you. 

[Met1985]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Weathernext has been outpacing other suite’s since tropical season, and not even relatively close either. I had a chart a while back, I’ll look today and see if it’s still on my computer and share it with you. 

Are there public records were we can look at the verification scores?

[olafminesaw]

Confidence growing for a light to moderate event across central NC. Still relying on early phasing for the higher totals (6" +)

[BooneWX]

16 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Are there public records were we can look at the verification scores?

I believe the chart I had was shared by a meteorologist on X more familiar with the westhernext suite, so I’ll see if I can find that.

[Snowncanes]

6z euro AI looks a few ticks better at 5H. Goes neutral a little earlier and negative a little further SW

[timnc910]

Looking at the 6z icon it did appear to come back west quite a bit compared to 0z.

[Upstate Tiger]

06 GFS much better surface reflection. 
 

Can someone post the Weathernext?