February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[GreyHat]

ICON 0z positive and flat out front allows system go ots.

NAM 0z not as positive and has heights rising in the Atlantic and allows system to come up north. Of course it's at the long range that isn't accurate. 

Wait for AI models. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Which probably explains why I am so hateful right now. I got 28. Under climo. In fact my climo has dropped over an inch and a half in the past decade. That is ridiculous. 2016 is the last year I beat climo. And it was because of one storm. Yes it was an amazing 40 inch storm. But generally, it doesnt matter here anymore. Cold winter too far south, warm winter too far north. We just cant score here anymore. Add in the fact that i CHOSE this place to live 25 years ago for climate and it makes it that much more frustrating. Regardless I am really close to moving north soon. I am done with Virginia anyways. 

I hear you. But the last 2 ninos did you no good. My only point was assuming a Nino fixes this seems flawed. The issue hasn’t been enso. 

[GreyHat]

The 0z AIGFS looks like the NAM with heights rising in front. 

Cleaner more NE

[Ji]

Gfs trending wrong way. 1 step forward 3 back

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs trending wrong way. 1 step forward 3 back

It was one step forward, one step back. literally shifted south 50 miles, which is noise for the GFS.

[Ji]

It was one step forward, one step back. literally shifted south 50 miles, which is noise for the GFS.

It was more the noise. We went from 3 inches to a non event

[GreyHat]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs trending wrong way. 1 step forward 3 back

Yeah, but the AIGFS doesn't back it and is more like the NAM

[GreyHat]

The 0z Canadian says nada. Looks like a system coming down from Canada keeps the system south and ots.

[Nomz]

you know you can do copy image on the map

[RevWarReenactor]

It was so obvious the gfs was going to turn that little swath of precip mid week into nothing. Next run it will probably  be gone entirely.

[Cobalt]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like it.  But..84hr NAM and all.  Need the Euro on board.  Fuck the GFS

AI Euro looks better than 18z

[bncho]

Just now, Cobalt said:

AI Euro looks better than 18z

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, bncho said:

It’s gonna be the worst inch ever!