Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: New post in the *technical* thread for those interested in the pattern progression/storm chances going forward. and miss out on Wills snow maps without context? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Ji said: and miss out on Wills snow maps without context? Take a quick peak! The maps will most likely be disappointing, but probably wrong, so still some hopium! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 The 18z GFS is just ugly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, stormtracker said: The 18z GFS is just ugly Thankfully it's the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: The 18z GFS is just ugly i heard the GFS at 144 has accuracy issues 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i heard the GFS at 144 has accuracy issues Yeah, same with hour 36. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The 18z GFS is just ugly its missing the 50/50 low that locks the high in...other than that--its a great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The 18z GFS is just ugly Wave timing is terrible. There is no block so the vortex moving though the (nearly) 50/50 region is exiting and with that the surface HP is sliding off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The 18z GFS is just ugly If it’s ugly it’s probably right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Wave timing is terrible. There is no block so the vortex moving though the (nearly) 50/50 region is exiting and with that the surface HP is sliding off the coast. It’s pretty obvious at this point that we’re gonna need to wait at least a week or two for a snowstorm. We’re due for a late season triple phaser anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, 87storms said: It’s pretty obvious at this point that we’re gonna need to wait at least a week or two for a snowstorm. We’re due for a late season triple phaser anyway. Check out the other thread. Reason for some optimism. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 It’s an ugly run but we wouldn’t trust the GFS if it showed a snowstorm at hr 144 so why trust it now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, rjvanals said: It’s an ugly run but we wouldn’t trust the GFS if it showed a snowstorm at hr 144 so why trust it now? Ehhhh its progression makes sense sadly. Not saying its right but with this pattern we are relying solely on timing so a situation where the 50/50 is too progressive and we end up without any cold at all is possible. Though I guess it's a less damning storm in terms of PSU's climate change book if that happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Check out the other thread. Reason for some optimism. You're such a tease. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Ehhhh its progression makes sense sadly. Not saying its right but with this pattern we are relying solely on timing so a situation where the 50/50 is too progressive and we end up without any cold at all is possible. Though I guess it's a less damning storm in terms of PSU's climate change book if that happens. I was just thinking the same: As long as it's not a logbook fail, I'll take that if need be, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 The WB 18Z GFS is awful for several reasons. 1. The high is way off the east coast allowing for SE winds 2. The upper level low is tracking too far south and therefore so is the surface low. 3. The surface low is weak. 4. We have marginally cold air at best so without a near perfect alignment of the high, upper level low, and surface low, we get rain or nothing at all. Looking for the more perfect alignment? How about the New Canadian model at 12Z. (Pictures below 10pm Sunday.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The WB 18Z GFS is awful for several reasons. 1. The high is way off the east coast allowing for SE winds 2. The upper level low is tracking too far south and therefore so is the surface low. 3. The surface low is weak. 4. We have marginally cold air at best so without a near perfect alignment of the high, upper level low, and surface low, we get rain or nothing at all. Looking for the more perfect alignment? How about the New Canadian model at 12Z. (Pictures below 10pm Sunday.) If you keep this up Randy will give you a raise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Wave timing is terrible. There is no block so the vortex moving though the (nearly) 50/50 region is exiting and with that the surface HP is sliding off the coast Nice west coast trough. Really a strong -PNA pattern there, even when the low is well to our SW. 564dm heights going into PA is not what you want to see. The Pac pattern being in a strong state, means not much fluctuation downstream in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Meanwhile the AIs continue to show something completely different...I don't get it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Meanwhile the AIs continue to show something completely different...I don't get it, lol Yeah, AIFS even more suppressed. Hard to bet against it locked in, but we’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 9 Author Share Posted February 9 WB 18Z GEFS says it is over for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12z EPS is at least trying to cool us down from the north for the last few days of February Unfortunately we need a little bit more of a cold anomaly for snow by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18z Euro looks like a nice rainstorm. I’ll give it another day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z Euro looks like a nice rainstorm. I’ll give it another day Now there's how the MA does February. Enough of these Manitoba temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18z Euro a little cooler than 12z with slp a bit further south and slightly weaker. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Euro a little cooler than 12z with slp a bit further south and slightly weaker. still too early to give up on----i would wait till wednesdsay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Meanwhile the AIs continue to show something completely different...I don't get it, lol AI= Reliance on Historical data/much faster processing/better with resolving general patterns Physics based = Slower processing but superior wrt complex, small scale details/unusual weather events Just my take from what I have read. Personally, I rely on NWP/physics based models over AI. When I want granular details, NWP is where its at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Euro a little cooler than 12z with slp a bit further south and slightly weaker. Just takes too long to get precip into the region. GFS has been more delayed as well since yesterday. I haven't looked at other models that snow on us to see if they are earlier with onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Just takes too long to get precip into the region. GFS has been more delayed as well since yesterday. I haven't looked at other models that snow on us to see if they are earlier with onset. Yeah, delay usually means denied unless there's a northern stream heading down to deliver a fresh dump of cold. But since it's all we've got at this point, we give up our seats on the lifeboat and wait safely on board the Titanic for the Carpathia to arrive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10 Author Share Posted February 10 WB 18Z AI EPS tanked like the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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