Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Indeed. 06z euro says wake up mid Atlantic and don't shit the blinds just yet!Yea and there was more to come. There is this little ULL over SE Canada that is giving the models fits. Every model run keeps placing it in different locations every run. There is also now the question of a late phase. It would be extremely impactful if models go that way. Euro Ai being so far SE is a pause for concern still, and the OP is an outlier until we see the EPS, but not out of the ballgame yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We’re so back 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Incredible how seasonal trends can hold on, whether in reality or on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Eps. More to come after this too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: We’re so back I don't care about being back i can't wait for tonight's thrilling installment of the Chuck and psu podcast 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps Not much to hate about that until someone chimes in with all of that is from one monster hit and 49 misses 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 We’re so backTechnically this is an Archaumbault event with the NAO change. It argues for a stronger/farther N solution vs the Ai models. Euro Ai gives me the most pause for concern of course, but we’re still at range where we could maybe see some significant changes There’s also a world where the Ukie/cmc solutions are possible, similar 6z euro track but with the initial wave tracking farther N00z Ukie was a MECS for interior to SNE 00z cmc parallel was like the Ukie but also got Philly in the game. Lots to parse. The pieces are there. We have 50/50, but the ULL helping reinforce the cold is a bowling ball and models are all over the place with it. Strong shortwave coming out of the pac, and finally x-factor to me is any northern stream piece that potentially tries to phase in last second. 6z eps comparison vs 00z, you can see that phase trying to happen with the energy over the lakes 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Upgraded CMC is slightly warmer but it's an all snow event NW of I95 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Not much to hate about that until someone chimes in with all of that is from one monster hit and 49 misses Idk, all but a handful of Eps members has the slp in a decent location. In fact, just a few that are way ots skew the mean. We'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nice? Maaaaan ain't nobody but the heat misers want that right now, lol But a pronounced SER would fit nina clomo though... If it ain’t going to snow we might as well torch. I’m done freezing my ass off walking to class. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: I don't care about being back i can't wait for tonight's thrilling installment of the Chuck and psu podcast Please no 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 13 minutes ago, bncho said: Upgraded CMC is slightly warmer but it's an all snow event NW of I95 It's this models turn 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 For now I’m considering 6z euro a “blip” and given thermals, the high snow accums may be a mirage. But there’s still time. We’re starting to enter the inevitable model reshuffling period (D3-5) where things can really change. Maybe for once the reshuffle goes in our favor? 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Terpeast said: For now I’m considering 6z euro a “blip” and given thermals, the high snow accums may be a mirage. But there’s still time. We’re starting to enter the inevitable model reshuffling period (D3-5) where things can really change. Maybe for once the reshuffle goes in our favor? The irony is the need for cold after being so cold. Like being flush with cash one week and then needing a go fund me the next. its chuckle worthy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: For now I’m considering 6z euro a “blip” and given thermals, the high snow accums may be a mirage. But there’s still time. We’re starting to enter the inevitable model reshuffling period (D3-5) where things can really change. Maybe for once the reshuffle goes in our favor? Perfect phase, strong LP, and a perfect track. That has to be the outcome! The temps are just above freezing where it has the heaviest snow. Heavy precip dynamic cooling deal. Clearly the best chance for snow in this pattern is NW with elevation.. if the storm makes it there. Pretty crazy run-to-run variations- busy NS, so its difficult to resolve wave timing and degree of interactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 I did a little comparison on all the models this morning. All the models have that bowing ball in a similar location day 3, but there’s a second shortwave that dives underneath it.Camp GFS, GFS Ai, Euro Ai have the bowing ball not reacting to that shortwave and it just meanders over SE Canada and blocks any attempt at our storm to come up the coast.Camp euro, cmc, Ukie phase that shortwave with the bowling ball and kick it east into our 50/50 locationThis interaction plays a big role on whether our storm can come up the coast or not. There’s other factors, but this is key imo 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 15 hours ago, IronTy said: How much wind tho? 1 pm average 8 - 15 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said: Remember last week when I said you all are tracking a rainstorm and I was accused of negativity and whining and now 5 days of models runs later and you admit that I am in fact....... Correct. And right after this sniveling post, the Euro came back. Will it be right? Probably not, but i don’t know that enough to make declarative statement about what I’m tracking. Go write a nasty PM to ECMWF about it. 7 1 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And right after this sniveling post, the Euro came back. Will it be right? Probably not, but Indont know that enough to make declarative statement la bout what I’m tracking. Go write a nasty PM to ECMWF about it. If we get any snow this weekend even 1/2” he needs to voluntarily delete his account. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Oh my! I was about to give up completely on this. Just checked the Euro for fun thinking it was gonna be showing a major rainstorm or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, bncho said: Upgraded CMC is slightly warmer but it's an all snow event NW of I95 Thank God I live in western Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Thank God I live in western LoudounIt’s done nothing for you the past five years 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Ji said: It’s done nothing for you the past five years I agree. I moved out this way for more snow and it’s done nothing for me. But it eventually has to average out and pay expected dividends. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s done nothing for you the past five years Eastern Loudoun where you live has been worse i hear 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: And right after this sniveling post, the Euro came back. Will it be right? Probably not, but i don’t know that enough to make declarative statement about what I’m tracking. Go write a nasty PM to ECMWF about it. I bet the euro doesn’t even make 150,000 dollars a year 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, TSSN+ said: If we get any snow this weekend even 1/2” he needs to voluntarily delete his account. Careful, he might challenge you to a duel. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Careful, he might challenge you to a duel. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, anotherman said: Please no PSU vs WarmChaserChuck!! Hahahaha -just messin Chuck love reading stuff from both of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 59 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Eastern Loudoun where you live has been worse i hear its the whole county bro...eastern and western(where we live) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 a whiff south is still a possiblity. I counted 20 members that had very little precip in our area here is one panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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