February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

New post in the *technical* thread for those interested in the pattern progression/storm chances going forward.

and miss out on Wills snow maps without context?

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

and miss out on Wills snow maps without context?

Take a quick peak! The maps will most likely be disappointing, but probably wrong, so still some hopium!

[stormtracker]

The 18z GFS is just ugly

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The 18z GFS is just ugly

Thankfully it's the GFS. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

The 18z GFS is just ugly

i heard the GFS at 144 has accuracy issues

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i heard the GFS at 144 has accuracy issues

Yeah, same with hour 36.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The 18z GFS is just ugly

its missing the 50/50 low that locks the high in...other than that--its a great run

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The 18z GFS is just ugly

Wave timing is terrible. There is no block so the vortex moving though the (nearly) 50/50 region is exiting and with that the surface HP is sliding off the coast.

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The 18z GFS is just ugly

If it’s ugly it’s probably right 

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Wave timing is terrible. There is no block so the vortex moving though the (nearly) 50/50 region is exiting and with that the surface HP is sliding off the coast.

It’s pretty obvious at this point that we’re gonna need to wait at least a week or two for a snowstorm. We’re due for a late season triple phaser anyway.

[CAPE]

Just now, 87storms said:

It’s pretty obvious at this point that we’re gonna need to wait at least a week or two for a snowstorm. We’re due for a late season triple phaser anyway.

Check out the other thread. Reason for some optimism.

[rjvanals]

It’s an ugly run but we wouldn’t trust the GFS if it showed a snowstorm at hr 144 so why trust it now? 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, rjvanals said:

It’s an ugly run but we wouldn’t trust the GFS if it showed a snowstorm at hr 144 so why trust it now? 

Ehhhh its progression makes sense sadly. Not saying its right but with this pattern we are relying solely on timing so a situation where the 50/50 is too progressive and we end up without any cold at all is possible. Though I guess it's a less damning storm in terms of PSU's climate change book if that happens. 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Check out the other thread. Reason for some optimism.

You're such a tease. 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ehhhh its progression makes sense sadly. Not saying its right but with this pattern we are relying solely on timing so a situation where the 50/50 is too progressive and we end up without any cold at all is possible. Though I guess it's a less damning storm in terms of PSU's climate change book if that happens. 

I was just thinking the same: As long as it's not a logbook fail, I'll take that if need be, lol

[Weather Will]

The WB 18Z GFS is awful for several reasons.  1. The high is way off the east coast allowing for SE winds 2. The upper level low is tracking too far south and therefore so is the surface low. 3. The surface low is weak. 4. We have marginally cold air at best so without a near perfect alignment of the high, upper level low, and surface low, we get rain or nothing  at all.

Looking for the more perfect alignment?  How about the New Canadian model at 12Z. (Pictures below 10pm Sunday.)

 

[bncho]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The WB 18Z GFS is awful for several reasons.  1. The high is way off the east coast allowing for SE winds 2. The upper level low is tracking too far south and therefore so is the surface low. 3. The surface low is weak. 4. We have marginally cold air at best so without a near perfect alignment of the high, upper level low, and surface low, we get rain or nothing  at all.

Looking for the more perfect alignment?  How about the New Canadian model at 12Z. (Pictures below 10pm Sunday.)

 

If you keep this up Randy will give you a raise.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Wave timing is terrible. There is no block so the vortex moving though the (nearly) 50/50 region is exiting and with that the surface HP is sliding off the coast

Nice west coast trough. Really a strong -PNA pattern there, even when the low is well to our SW. 564dm heights going into PA is not what you want to see. The Pac pattern being in a strong state, means not much fluctuation downstream in future runs. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Meanwhile the AIs continue to show something completely different...I don't get it, lol

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Meanwhile the AIs continue to show something completely different...I don't get it, lol

Yeah, AIFS even more suppressed. Hard to bet against it locked in, but we’ll see

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS says it is over for this weekend.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12z EPS is at least trying to cool us down from the north for the last few days of February

Unfortunately we need a little bit more of a cold anomaly for snow by then. 

[NorthArlington101]

18z Euro looks like a nice rainstorm. I’ll give it another day 

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z Euro looks like a nice rainstorm. I’ll give it another day 

 

Now there's how the MA does February. Enough of these Manitoba temps

[mitchnick]

18z Euro a little cooler than 12z with slp a bit further south and slightly weaker.

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Euro a little cooler than 12z with slp a bit further south and slightly weaker.

still too early to give up on----i would wait till wednesdsay

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Meanwhile the AIs continue to show something completely different...I don't get it, lol

AI= Reliance on Historical data/much faster processing/better with resolving general patterns

Physics based = Slower processing  but superior wrt complex, small scale details/unusual weather events

Just my take from what I have read. Personally, I rely on NWP/physics based models over AI. When I want granular details, NWP is where its at.

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Euro a little cooler than 12z with slp a bit further south and slightly weaker.

Just takes too long to get precip into the region. GFS has been more delayed as well since yesterday. I haven't looked at other models that snow on us to see if they are earlier with onset.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Just takes too long to get precip into the region. GFS has been more delayed as well since yesterday. I haven't looked at other models that snow on us to see if they are earlier with onset.

Yeah, delay usually means denied unless there's a northern stream heading down to deliver a fresh dump of cold. But since it's all we've got at this point, we give up our seats on the lifeboat and wait safely on board the Titanic for the Carpathia to arrive. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI EPS tanked like the GEFS.