January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[katabatic]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

First flakes on top of Meadow Mountain!   Actually picking up in a little intensity.  5F.  

Excellent! You and @nj2va have several hundred feet on me but it's close for mby. Thanks for the update! DP is 'up' to -5.9 so we're getting there. Ice box cold at 6.4.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Reminder that this was supposed to start after midnight.

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Thats my bar. An hour or two extra of all snow during heavy precip before the flip is how we hit our high ends

18/-3

we would only have to bust -0.5*C cold on upper level temps for that to happen IMO... how hard is that?

[winter_warlock]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

That must be why they have such high totals!

That's what I was thinking. I'm curious to see what the upper air data shows for the 00z model suite!!

[umdterps29]

Reminder that this was supposed to start after midnight.

It’s still going to start after midnight


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[balltermen]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Virga pushing north into Fairfax County.  We’re close.

CWG was suggesting an 11:30-ish start for Alexandria/Arlington.  I think that's probably too late. 

[Nomz]

Reflectivity region-wide has definitely increased in the last 15 minutes or so. Tiny little band moving w-e into Woodbridge right now.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, umdterps29 said:

It’s still going to start after midnight


.

It's on the doorstep of DC right now...

[Skidude]

18/0 Cloverly Md. cloudy parked at the top of the hill!  Locked and loaded!

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, balltermen said:

CWG was suggesting an 11:30-ish start for Alexandria/Arlington.  I think that's probably too late. 

My guess is first flakes here in next 30 minutes. Virga overhead Alexandria right now.

[balltermen]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

we would only have to bust -0.5*C cold on upper level temps for that to happen IMO... how hard is that?

It's really hard. We've faded modeled warm noses before, but the setups were a little different and models were not as skilled.  2/25/07 was an all snow event that was supposed to flip.  But that's almost 20 years now. 

[umdterps29]

It's on the doorstep of DC right now...

Dry air is going to take a while to saturate until heavier returns come in


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[Another Field]

18.1°F/-0.2°F in the center of Baltimore City

[wawarriors4]

Light Snow, truck and driveway are dusted

15/7

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, umdterps29 said:

Dry air is going to take a while to saturate until heavier returns come in


.

Flakes have been spotted in Stafford.

[wxdude64]

Temp still dropping, 13.7/9.3 at 9:55 pm. Moderate snow.

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

My guess is first flakes here in next 30 minutes.

Perhaps sooner, someone here reported flakes in Stafford.

[MilitantApathist]

Just started here in Catlett. Lots of tiny flakes with a few larger ones mixed in. Picking up in intensity pretty quickly, and immediately sticking to everything.

[wawarriors4]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Perhaps sooner, someone here reported flakes in Stafford.

It’s more than just flakes now in Stafford.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Light Snow, truck and driveway are dusted

15/7

This is good stuff.  Nothing here.  14F

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, wawarriors4 said:

It’s more than just flakes now in Stafford.

Yeah. I’ve met some normal people there once  

[das]

First flakes in Clarksburg!

 

 

[wxmeddler]

Not much so far:

[konksw]

[Scraff]

18 minutes ago, bncho said:

We’re in the Endgame. Let’s gooo!!

[Jrlg1181]

I dont recall ever seeing it this cold with snow falling before - temp still hovering around 13 down here in Waynesboro... Still pixie snow so its not adding up fast... Might light a oil lamp just for the smell and old time feeling.......

[umdterps29]

Flakes have been spotted in Stafford.

If giving yourself hope that you’re going to see accumulating snow earlier makes you feel better, go right ahead. In MY opinion, the flip time is going to be what really impacts the results


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[bncho]

JFC look at that 2z NAM... really thumpy for Bobby Chilly Land!

[paulythegun]

Mrs. PacMan, as expected. Everything is on schedule. Waiting until about midnight for this to fill in

[IronTy]

Just now, Jrlg1181 said:

I dont recall ever seeing it this cold with snow falling before - temp still hovering around 13 down here in Waynesboro... Still pixie snow so its not adding up fast... Might light a oil lamp just for the smell and old time feeling.......

I've got two oil lamps burning right now.  I swear I have gallon jugs of shabbos lamp oil all over the place.