Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[TSSN+]

Just now, high risk said:

The blanket "the NAM sucks" stuff is wild to me when the strength of the NAM Nest is nailing thermal profiles inside of Day 2.   Maybe it's going to be too fast with the changeover, but complete dismissing of it makes no sense.

Thermals could be right, but also doesn't matter if it is not modeling the storm correctly or qpf. It is significantly drier than all the other models and the other ones are getting wetter each run. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

There is snow breaking out in eastern KY to SW WV on NWS observation stations. Nam doesn't have snow there for another 4 hours. lol

virga?

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

The blanket "the NAM sucks" stuff is wild to me when the strength of the NAM Nest is nailing thermal profiles inside of Day 2.   Maybe it's going to be too fast with the changeover, but complete dismissing of it makes no sense.

Trust me, learned my lesson.  Not dismissing it at all wrt thermals

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

virga?

NWS obs don't report virga. SW  WV stations reporting light snow. Eastern KY moderate. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, high risk said:

The blanket "the NAM sucks" stuff is wild to me when the strength of the NAM Nest is nailing thermal profiles inside of Day 2.   Maybe it's going to be too fast with the changeover, but complete dismissing of it makes no sense.

I agree it’s had value before, but that doesn’t diminish the horrible accuracy of the NCEP short term model suite. The blanket NAM sucks might be silly, but it’s also the anomaly on precipitation amounts vs the other suites. There’s a reason they’re all being decommissioned, and SOME of them don’t even make it to commissioning at all. 

[jlewis1111]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Thermals could be right, but also doesn't matter if it is not modeling the storm correctly or qpf. It is significantly drier than all the other models and the other ones are getting wetter each run. 

Of course you gonna lead into the models that have more snow for you. However you betting on longer range models now then shorter range models? Nam is in range gfs and euro arent. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

NWS obs don't report virga. SW  WV stations reporting light snow. Eastern KY moderate. 

Ah. hmm

[SnowenOutThere]

Seems that the precip shield is ahead of schedule? SW Va appears to be getting ready to snow soon as precip is visible on 511 cams near Wytheville

[Ji]

Trust me, learned my lesson.  Not dismissing it at all wrt thermals

Is it the thermals because it’s dry?

[high risk]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Thermals could be right, but also doesn't matter if it is not modeling the storm correctly or qpf. It is significantly drier than all the other models and the other ones are getting wetter each run. 

    The fact that it's one of the driest solutions is absolutely odd, and I don't mind treating it as a massive outlier.    But I'm not sure that missing how significant the initial thump is will matter with how quickly we changeover, and I also don't think that it makes sense to compare radar to model forecast 400 miles away to determine what will happen here.    Anyhow, you'll change over way later than we will no matter what......

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Thermals could be right, but also doesn't matter if it is not modeling the storm correctly or qpf. It is significantly drier than all the other models and the other ones are getting wetter each run. 

Especially important when the thermal profile is determined by rate dependencies…everything in a WAA thump with advancing ML warm intrusion. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Seems that the precip shield is ahead of schedule? SW Va appears to be getting ready to snow soon as precip is visible on 511 cams near Wytheville

Someone mentioned that the snow in Kentucky right now is ahead of schedule compared to recent NAM runs.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Ah. hmm

 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said:

Of course you gonna lead into the models that have more snow for you. However you betting on longer range models now then shorter range models? Nam is in range gfs and euro arent. 

Just like HighRisk reminded us that the short term US models do know thermals, do need we to remind you the Euro’s resolution is better than that of all models outside the 3k NAM?

[MDphotog]

You can see some snow coming down on the traffic cams.  US 460 & US 52 in Southern WV. Traffic Cameras

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

maybe @high risk can explain.  Maybe lends to NAM being too dry.   Weenie hope

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I agree it’s had value before, but that doesn’t diminish the horrible accuracy of the NCEP short term model suite. The blanket NAM sucks might be silly, but it’s also the anomaly on precipitation amounts vs the other suites. There’s a reason they’re all being decommissioned, and SOME of them don’t even make it to commissioning at all. 

            The reason that the NAM and Hires Windows are being retired is because it's impossible to maintain a model suite with so many different cores.     That said, I need to figure out why I'm spending time defending the NAM....   

[MDsnowPRO]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s like you’ve done this a couple times before 

[notvirga!]

It’s been snowing in Wise VA for about an hour. 

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Just like HighRisk reminded us that the short term US models do know thermals, do need we to remind you the Euro’s resolution is better than that of all models outside the 3k NAM?

       Not true:   HRRR and the three HiResWindows are all 3km.    That said, I don't trust any of those for thermal profiles.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Just like HighRisk reminded us that the short term US models do know thermals, do need we to remind you the Euro’s resolution is better than that of all models outside the 3k NAM?

I feel sorry for the new members in here, they must be confused AF

[Grothar of Herndon]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

virga?

I have a place in Southwest VA near Eastern KY boarder and confirm light snow. 

[mitchnick]

My sister, half way between Richmond and Williamsburg, is currently getting rimed flakes (mini snowballs as she described them.) Her current NWS forecast is for snow to start before 3am tonight with no mention of precip during the day today. Anyway, radar is all lit up over VA moving west to east with some dark echoes over her in SE VA. Does seem ahead of schedule. 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[VA Mad Man]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Newercomers  must act with restraint or get the boot 

THIS

[EHoffman]

I maintain we always start ahead of schedule on these WAA events 

[osfan24]

Weenie alert, but it would be huge if we could get the snow in here this evening instead of after midnight. The delay in this storm definitely hurt us getting to those bigger totals.

[MDphotog]

Just now, EHoffman said:

I maintain we always start ahead of schedule on these WAA events 

We do, but not usually this far ahead.  Mitchnick's radar seems to have virga breaking out in the WV panhandle.  

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

            The reason that the NAM and Hires Windows are being retired is because it's impossible to maintain a model suite with so many different cores.     That said, I need to figure out why I'm spending time defending the NAM....   

that actually made me laugh out loud. Serious question for a sec, why did the FV3 GFS replacement never game big time? 
 

on this storm, it has been consistently colder and snowier for most than the other suites, but not all that different than the OP GFS. Does it have a published cold bias that just can’t be corrected? 

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I feel sorry for the new members in here, they must be confused AF

I’ve been here since the days of EasternWX. I’m still fuckin confused! Or it could be the RAR double IPA kickin in.  
 

ETA—forgot to contribute something weather like. Ummmm. It’s cold out and feels like snow. Boom! 

[Solution Man]

Just now, Scraff said:

I’ve been here since the days of EasternWX. I’m still fuckin confused! Or it could be the RAR double IPA kickin in.  

Damn, spit out my drink