wxlvr Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, wxlvr said: Amazing! Thank you so much for helping me understand the dynamics of this storm! (not banter). From a scientific perspective, about this storm. I am trying to understand how three days ago people were posting "no temp issues with this storm", only to have the storm morph into snow/sleet/freezing rain storm. I understand that there are many variables built into the models that we have difficulty understanding their interactions, but what changed to cause us to go from "no temp issues" to an inch or more of non-snow freezing precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, wxlvr said: From a scientific perspective, about this storm. I am trying to understand how three days ago people were posting "no temp issues with this storm", only to have the storm morph into snow/sleet/freezing rain storm. I understand that there are many variables built into the models that we have difficulty understanding their interactions, but what changed to cause us to go from "no temp issues" to an inch or more of non-snow freezing precip. Its complex, but the simple answer is that the storm is phasing much farther west than ideal for an all snow event with no temp issues. It’s still cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, wxlvr said: From a scientific perspective, about this storm. I am trying to understand how three days ago people were posting "no temp issues with this storm", only to have the storm morph into snow/sleet/freezing rain storm. I understand that there are many variables built into the models that we have difficulty understanding their interactions, but what changed to cause us to go from "no temp issues" to an inch or more of non-snow freezing precip. I would recommend watching some of Fox 5's Mike Thomas's Facebook lives. You will learn a lot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Cmon @stormtracker let’s do this Present. Just gonna do sfc comparisons. Eyes going crossways at this point and I just wanna lay the fuck down. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 NAM replacement held serve with other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 00z RGEM finally coming in... ripping at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 About the same thru 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: About the same thru 24 Isotherms trended north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Isotherms trended north. a smidge, yes, nothing note worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z RGEM finally coming in... ripping at 12z Looks like .75" QPF before flip DC metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS actually wetter out west so far 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 It's a hold...and just a smidge cooler...nothing noteable 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Hour 33 is nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I wasn't trying to be a smart-ass, but I look forward to your tutelage. Dude, the sass that was thrown your way in that post was teenage level 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 0z Monday, hair wetter in some areas S and E of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlvr Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I would recommend watching some of Fox 5's Mike Thomas's Facebook lives. You will learn a lot! I have been daily active in this forum for 16 years. I have always thought that we could do a better job of educating each other. It was kinda my point. How can I use the skew T charts to understand the dymanics of this storm. I could go get a degree in meteorology, or go to Mike Thomas's Facebook page. I just think we have the expertise in this group that we should leverage. Ok, sorry folks, done pushing this issue. going back to lurking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 all in all a hold 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, mappy said: Dude, the sass that was thrown your way in that post was teenage level 28 years as a teacher and you learn that it isn't your issue. It must be rough to be that defensive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Really wish we could abscond with the GFS snow map again 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 1 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: 28 years as a teacher and you learn that it isn't your issue. It must be rough to be that defensive. Send me tips for how to handle my teenager lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS is running out of time to cave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlvr Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Its complex, but the simple answer is that the storm is phasing much farther west than ideal for an all snow event with no temp issues. It’s still cold though. Thank you so much Terpeast! That is partially what I assumed. I assumed this was because the modeled HP to the north is not as high as was modeled a few days ago, when we were worried about suppression, so the lower HP lets the low track more north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1.2qpf IMBY before any flip. Amazing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 hours ago, WVclimo said: I think that's now the 8th run in a row of the GFS showing 18"+ (Kuchera) for the eastern panhandle of WV Make that 9 runs in a row for the GFS. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Lock it up lock it in! Love it! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: GFS is running out of time to cave. If you adjust the snow/ice line 20-30 miles NW to account for its inability to see mid level warm layers it’s not that far from the ggem and EC anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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