January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[winter_warlock]

Here's my forecast for this storm!! 

[RIC_WX]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Sorry, I forgot to respond last night…I don’t think it’s the greatest upslope setup with the departing storm track but certainly will have snow showers on Monday.  

You mchenry or Alexandria for this one?  I was told to stay in Leesburg because “it snows at wisp every weekend dad”.  Oh well.

[Amped]

This storm is a bust if there is a gap in the 12" snow swath anywhere between Ruidoso,NM and Portland,ME. 

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

You mchenry or Alexandria for this one?  I was told to stay in Leesburg because “it snows at wisp every weekend dad”.  Oh well.

Alexandria, I think it’ll be fun with the snow/sleet and freezing rain (to end).  If McHenry was getting 2-3’, I would have chased.

[AlexD1990]

The Arctic front means business. Wind is howling!

[RIC_WX]

Just now, nj2va said:

Alexandria, I think it’ll be fun with the snow/sleet and freezing rain (to end).  If McHenry was getting 2-3’, I would have chased.

If next weekend materializes, I am heading back west.  Enjoy!

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@mattie g update on Fairfax school status for Monday-Friday??

They're already off on Thursday and Friday. No way they have school Monday. Half of the elementary schools have early release on Wednesday. It's going to be cold AF and people won't shovel their sidewalks.

[bncho]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Imma pass out early tonight so I can be ready for tomm.  Got a feeling we ain't getting much sleep this upcoming period

Do you want me to do PBP for 0z? I'm more than happy to do so.

[LeesburgWx]

If the NAM is correct, the public will have pitchforks out for all the Mets instead of the apps

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

If the NAM is correct, the public will have pitchforks out for all the Mets instead of the apps

Yep, lol And it's unfortunate because that scenario would be impossible to predict. Like a model bust like that would just be one of those things

[nw baltimore wx]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Trick, the FV3 is almost always similar to the gfs inside 48 hours. Similar to the rgem/ggem. So if you want to know about what the gfs is going to look like just look at the FV3 now. 

I'll happily take what the FV3 is showing.

[Brianonymous]

My photo album service just reminded me that on this very day, 10 years ago, we had a butt ton of snow. Edgewater - 1/23/2016

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

The snow and sleet combo would be a warning level "snow" 

Doesn't count. Sleet is not snow and that's a troll way to get to a warning...I just want 6+" of snow. Been 10 years. It should not be this hard

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Doesn't count. Sleet is not snow and that's a troll way to get to a warning...I just want 6+" of snow. Been 10 years. It should not be this hard

You haven't had a 6" snow in ten years?

[mikeg0305]

Seriously, given all the modern technology and computing power…how do the models and foresters continue to get forecasting so wrong?

I know Mother Nature is in charge but this is looking more and more like a snow bust with the heavy amounts well north of us. Some of the models earlier in the week had us missing the heavy snow to our south.

Sorry…just complaining.

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You haven't had a 6" snow in ten years?

I have not. Now OFFICIALLY yes BWI has had ONE (may have been in 2022) But that was a northern fringe job so bad that the airport a mere 13 miles south of me got more than my yard did, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, mikeg0305 said:

Seriously, given all the modern technology and computing power…how do the models and foresters continue to get forecasting so wrong?

I know Mother Nature is in charge but this is looking more and more like a snow bust with the heavy amounts well north of us. Some of the models earlier in the week had us missing the heavy snow to our south.

Sorry…just complaining.

Well it's not on the forecasters...I mean they can only follow the latest data and use their expertise to make a prediction. But some shift no other model saw, and one hard to pinpoint like how fast a changeover occurs...that's on the models. This close in they oughta be better than that

[stormtracker]

36 minutes ago, bncho said:

Do you want me to do PBP for 0z? I'm more than happy to do so.

I'm up.  Was falling asleep ,but bf had other ideas.  I'm up now.  But idc regardless of I'm I'm around.

Was about to make an ravens joke, but i'll let it go   

 

[nw baltimore wx]

Upon seeing the nam:

 

But then...

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z RRFS pounds DC metro between 09z and 13z

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm up.  Was falling asleep ,but bf had other ideas.  I'm up now.  But idc regardless of I'm I'm around.

Was about to make an ravens joke, but i'll let it go   

 

Jesus man this is a family channel!

[DSF]

1 hour ago, snowfan said:

All of the 0Z runs will look amazing after I'm done enjoying this beast.

D...does that say 17%?

Sounds tasty though, I might have to try to track that down.

44 minutes ago, mattie g said:

They're already off on Thursday and Friday. No way they have school Monday. Half of the elementary schools have early release on Wednesday. It's going to be cold AF and people won't shovel their sidewalks.

Yeah, unless this storm busts hard I don't see school being in the cards for Fairfax.  I'm a teacher and a memo went out already saying the county knows that canceling the last days of the grading period causes problems and they have several contingency plans in the works.

Edit: Just to be clear, Fairfax has not canceled anything for the week yet, but it seems clear they expect to be off multiple days.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Jesus man this is a family channel!

Hey, I restrained myself.

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I have not. Now OFFICIALLY yes BWI has had ONE (may have been in 2022) But that was a northern fringe job so bad that the airport a mere 13 miles south of me got more than my yard did, lol

I had no idea.

[mappy]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

But do the homework for Monday! 

Lol I def told my kid that her homework needed to be done regardless of Monday possible closing. 

[paulythegun]

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Wow said:

Enjoy ice!

Booooo, lol

Hey I commented in the technical help thread but didn't hear anything (do you run that?): The "yes" emoji gid has been broken for awhile and I was wondering if there was any fixing to it.

And I've always been curious: What character is your profile pic showing?

[aldie 22]

Fascinating watching the human condition in full display in the threat thread. It's a little sad honestly watching people get so down over modeled snow

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

Rats

I'll be sure to add a contour for 1-2" of rain around Georgetown. 

[pazzo83]

anyone got the current conditions in Magnolia Delaware?

[Jebman]

Not only have the LES bands been blasting for over a week, but the LES areas will get snow from OUR storm, in effect padding their totals then get even MORE LES that will impact the snow belts into next week!

That locality is starting to make Mammoth Mountain look bad. lol

 

292
FXUS61 KBUF 240139
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
839 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Winter Storm Warning was issued for heavy snow across western NY
Sunday through Monday, and areas southeast of Lake Ontario and
the Eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A band of locally heavy lake effect snow off Lake Ontario will
move south across the southern shore of Lake Ontario counties
through tonight, while snow showers weaken east of Lake Erie.

2) Dangerously cold airmass will last into Sunday morning.

3) Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday and Sunday night, with wrap
around lake effect/enhanced snow through at least Monday.

4) Following the widespread snow, moderate to heavy lake effect snow
is possible off Lake Ontario Monday night through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A band of locally heavy lake effect snow off Lake
Ontario will move south across the southern shore of Lake Ontario
counties through tonight, while snow showers weaken east of Lake
Erie.

Regional radar shows multiple bands of lake effect snow extending
off the Great Lakes as an arctic airmass builds into the region this
evening. Locally, lake effect snow will become weaker with the
passage of a trough axis through tonight.

A deep closed low over Quebec will move east through tonight.
A wind shift has caused the lake bands to move south through
this evening with heavy snow moving into the counties south of
Lake Ontario. A sudden burst of snow will occur from Orleans to
northern Cayuga counties before the band weakens and becomes
more multi-band with a shorter fetch and diminishing winds. A
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the southern shore of
Lake Ontario counties tonight.

A northwesterly flow has setup across Lake erie with upslope
snow showers and a weakening band of lake effect snow across
the western Southern Tier. Snow showers will continue to weaken
through the evening hours with an inch or so of additional
accumulation.


Gusty winds will support blowing and drifting snow, especially in
open spaces.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerously cold airmass will last into Sunday
morning.

Strong cold advection will force temperatures to drop into the
single digits from west to east. Lows tonight will bottom out
in the single digits above and below zero in most areas, and
teens below zero for the North Country that will miss the
benefit of the warming influence of the lakes. Highs will
eventually recover to the single digits and lower teens by late
Saturday afternoon.

Wind chills will bottom out in the 15 to 20 below zero range on the
lake plains, and 20 to 25 below across the higher terrain of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. The North Country will be coldest,
with wind chills dropping to near 30 below at times. The worst wind
chills will be later today through tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread heavy snow expected Sunday and Sunday
night, with wrap around lake effect/enhanced snow through at least
Monday.

The forecast for Western and North-Central NY remains on track for
the major winter storm that will impact a truly impressive swath of
the CONUS. Models and their respective ensembles remain in good
agreement on the track and overall timing of the storm, with just a
few subtle differences noted in the intensity of the secondary low
that will develop off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday. Being well to
the north of the two sfc lows and the sandwiched trough extending
down the spine of the Appalachians, we will remain clear of the
warmer air intruding to our south and southeast, with very high
confidence in precipitation type remaining all snow across the CWA.
Behind the system, cold air will remain locked in place with
reinforcing moisture promoting lake effect and upslope snows through
Monday, and likely into Monday night as well. With confidence
continuing to increase in the general forecast, the previous Watch
has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for the entire region.

Timing...Some potential lingering lake snows near the southern Lake
Ontario shoreline Saturday night as the synoptic snow begins its
initial push into the forecast area from the south. Still a bit of
uncertainty in exact onset time, though by daybreak much of the
Southern Tier should be seeing light to moderate snow, while areas
east of Lake Ontario will likely remain (synoptic) snow-free until
the early afternoon. Synoptic snows will then continue across the
entire area for most, if not through all of Sunday night. In the
wake of the system, winds will become northwesterly which should
direct multiple bands of weaker lake effect downwind of Lake Ontario
through Monday. This will continue the threat for lesser
accumulating snow just about everywhere through the day.

Amounts and Snowfall rates...Impressive northward moisture transport
overlapping with the right-entrance quadrant of an emerging strong
190+kt ULJ and incipient broad scale height falls will enhance
snowfall as the event progresses. The heaviest peak snowfall rates
(around 1" per hour) are generally expected areawide Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening, especially if and where mesoscale
banding sets up. For this synoptic portion of the event, a
widespread 7-12" is currently forecast, though locally higher
amounts will be possible. For the fairly widespread lake
effect/upslope portion Monday, an additional 2-4" may accumulate in
most areas, possibly a bit more southeast of the lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Following the widespread snow, moderate to heavy
lake effect snow is possible off Lake Ontario Monday night through
midweek.

The lake effect off Lake Ontario Monday night is expected to congeal
into an area southeast of the lake behind a passing 850mb ridge as
deep moisture increases and low level wind fields back. Despite the
passage of this ridge, temps aloft will dip back to near -20C, more
than cold enough for a solid lake response. The backing winds should
direct this more focused lake effect area due east of the lake late
Monday night into Tuesday. This lake effect is expected to persist
through midweek, though a passing clipper will likely cause the band
to make another southward push between Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Still a fair amount of uncertainty in the strength, track and timing
of this clipper so uncertainty is high in how the lake effect will
play out though there will be a potential for localized moderate to
heavy additional snowfall east and/or southeast of Lake Ontario.

For Lake Erie...The recent Arctic airmass over the Great Lakes has
caused the amount of ice coverage on the lake to rapidly increase
over the past week. With above-freezing temps nowhere to be found
and calming winds ahead of the major storm, this trend is expected
to continue. Will need to see how exactly the ice changes over next
couple of days, but the thickening and expanding coverage should
greatly mute the response from the lake throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The Lake Ontario lake band will sag southward across the
southern shore of Lake Ontario and persist there tonight,
becoming a multi band setup at times. This will occur as an
upstream connection with Lake Huron sets up with the northwest
flow. IFR or below is expected in the bands which will likely
reach KROC through tonight. The lake effect snow off of Lake
Erie continues to weaken this evening, but is bringing brief
moderate snow showers to the western Southern Tier, including at
KJHW. With the northwest flow over the region, lake clouds will
persist through the night, with some lowering to MVFR at times
outside of the lake bands. Farther away from the lake bands off
of the lakes, breaks in the clouds will allow VFR conditions at
times.

Lake effect snow showers are possible along the southern shore of
Lake Ontario Saturday morning, with localized MVFR/IFR at KROC.
Mainly VFR conditions expected elsewhere Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR deteriorating to widespread LIFR from south to north
with heavy snow developing.

Monday...LIFR in widespread moderate to heavy snow, diminishing
later in the day.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Localized lake effect snow and IFR southeast
of Lake Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
High end Small Craft Advisory conditions are present this
evening on both Lake Erie & Ontario. High pressure will build
into the eastern Great Lakes tonight through Saturday, allowing
for the wind to finally diminish.

A light easterly flow will begin across the Lakes Sunday in response
to a large area of low pressure south of the region. East-northeast
flow will continue through Sunday night, before winds increase out
of the northwest by late Monday. Small Craft conditions are likely
on the western side of Lake Ontario Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -11 (1976)                         5(1976)
January 24                         -11 (1976)                         1(1963)
January 25                         -14 (1884)                         5(1884)

Rochester
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -14 (1976)                         5(1976)
January 24                         -10 (1963)                         2(1963)
January 25                         -6  (1945)                         7(1884)

Watertown
                      Record low minimum temperature          Record low high temperature

January 23                         -31 (1976)                        -1(1976)
January 24                         -30 (2014)                         0(2004)
January 25                         -18 (2007)                         3(1992)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for NYZ001>006-
     010>014-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ001-002-010-011.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for
     NYZ002>005.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ003>008.
     Extreme Cold Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ007-008.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST Monday for
     NYZ012>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LOZ043-
         044.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hitchcock/HSK/PP
AVIATION...HSK/SW
MARINE...Hitchcock/HSK
CLIMATE...HSK