January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage JV/Banter Thread!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Genuinely do not know your issue with me man. You’ve been on my ass when you yourself offer no commentary on our setups and haven’t been on the forum in years. It’s bullshit. As for the CMC point go back to model runs Monday and tell me which one is the closest to our current runs. It is the CMC as by and far it involved the cleanest phase out west and includes the NS lobe which the others didn’t even have at that point. Either way, you gotta chill out man; as it turns out I’ve changed since you last checked the forum and actually know what I’m talking about now. If you’d like to contest that please refer to the top 2 most popular posts in the old thread and tell me the synoptic faults I made as I am more than willing to concede I’m not perfect. 

It's not you, man. That's how he is--like @nw baltimore wxsaid just put him on ignore. Not worth the brain space--you are doing a fantastic job!

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Genuinely do not know your issue with me man. You’ve been on my ass when you yourself offer no commentary on our setups and haven’t been on the forum in years. It’s bullshit. As for the CMC point go back to model runs Monday and tell me which one is the closest to our current runs. It is the CMC as by and far it involved the cleanest phase out west and includes the NS lobe which the others didn’t even have at that point. Either way, you gotta chill out man; as it turns out I’ve changed since you last checked the forum and actually know what I’m talking about now. If you’d like to contest that please refer to the top 2 most popular posts in the old thread and tell me the synoptic faults I made as I am more than willing to concede I’m not perfect. 

Just ignore him, he is a complete asshole. I feel bad for his family, if he even has any. 

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Put that guy on ignore.  I have very few people on that list, but he's one of them.  

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's not you, man. That's how he is--like @nw baltimore wxsaid just put him on ignore. Not worth the brain space--you are doing a fantastic job!

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Just ignore him, he is a complete asshole. I feel bad for his family, if he even has any. 

Thank you guys. 

[bncho]

42 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

The storm is 3 days away with an unknown outcome, so it hasn't won anything. Do they teach common sense over at UVA?

CMC also has a known bias to over-phase in the medium range

I would generally agree with the fact that the CMC hasn't won anything yet, but you don't have to be a complete asshole and add that "common sense" remark. Come on...

[EHoffman]

This post from the first storm thread:

Quote

 

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago"

 

Makes me laugh so hard.  I'm gonna use it as copypasta in future storms.

 

 

[Cobalt]

Looking back at the Feb 21, 2015 storm someone mentioned in the other thread.. woof, quite the boom. Let's hope a similar thump is in store this time around, but area-wide.

Accompanying article for anyone interested https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/22/the-meteorology-behind-saturdays-multiple-choice-winter-storm/

[benjammin]

It's the final countdown...

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[LordBaltimore]

15 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

This post from the first storm thread:

Makes me laugh so hard.  I'm gonna use it as copypasta in future storms.

 

 

when I was at UMD for grad school we'd have weekly department meetings and sometimes Louis Uccellini - or as I call him - Louis Uccellini - would show up. I gave a research update one time and he told me, and I quote, "good job"

[Yeoman]

29 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Genuinely do not know your issue with me man. You’ve been on my ass when you yourself offer no commentary on our setups and haven’t been on the forum in years. It’s bullshit. As for the CMC point go back to model runs Monday and tell me which one is the closest to our current runs. It is the CMC as by and far it involved the cleanest phase out west and includes the NS lobe which the others didn’t even have at that point. Either way, you gotta chill out man; as it turns out I’ve changed since you last checked the forum and actually know what I’m talking about now. If you’d like to contest that please refer to the top 2 most popular posts in the old thread and tell me the synoptic faults I made as I am more than willing to concede I’m not perfect. 

Hey man - I'm really sorry.. I'm just a little frustrated because my family disowned me after I used my dad's credit card to DoorDash a yardstick from Ace hardware. Now all I'm left with is spending most of my day on the forum trying to make funny posts using sexual innuendo. 

In all seriousness (which is rare from me), congrats on getting into UVA and all the best

[bncho]

13 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Hey man - I'm really sorry.. I'm just a little frustrated because my family disowned me after I used my dad's credit card to DoorDash a yardstick from Ace hardware. Now all I'm left with is spending most of my day on the forum trying to make funny posts using sexual innuendo. 

In all seriousness (which is rare from me), congrats on getting into UVA and all the best

Excuse me sir, I bought it from Lowes. 

[Wxtrix]

26 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

EC continues to support initial snow thoughts on where the heaviest will occur. I may have to adjust my 10” line further southeast, but there’s time! 
 

I need to make it out to the WV Panhandle for this thing. It looks immaculate out there for this one. Anyone want to take in a meteorologist? I’ll bring some booze @clskinsfan ?  

 

not clskinsfan but here in the EP:

the Hampton Inn just outside town has good reviews, and you can walk to restaurants and a grocery store.

we've stayed in Hilton Home2 Suites elsewhere and they have kitchens. it's in the same shopping center as the Hampton Inn.

there's an inn in town and you can walk to restaurants and our locally-sourced grocery store but I don't know what will actually open on Sunday/Monday. but there will be great photo ops of the old part of town.

my husband is recovering from emergency surgery (a great Christmas!! not) and is doing well, so we can't have guests right now.

and of course the storm could shift away from us too. 

 

[Mrs.J]

So have now seen two MD Universities, Frostburg and Salisbury, both put out messages to their students. Frostburg is opening up their dorms a day early on Saturday to accommodate students getting back to campus before the snow. Also opening up the dinning hall early and not charging. Salisbury is having a week of virtual classes starting Monday so that students do not need to rush back. Both the Ms. J’s are back on their campuses already as both of them started back within the last couple of weeks. I am making a run up to PA to drop off something for the kid up there and decided to go on Friday. Told the DC kid to get to the store and get what she needs. 

[davidjd1114]

Winter Storm Watch for York County


.

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, davidjd1114 said:

Winter Storm Watch for York County


.

Area wide watches are up.

[Ji]

Winter Storm Watch for York County


.

How is this banter

[Siesta Key]

Moved from Maryland to Florida four years ago, but old winter-tracking habits die hard. Still watching and rooting for you all up there.

[aldie 22]

Im really struggling with expectations out here. This will be my first winter event in the area after so many years in central/eastern Loudoun. I think we hold onto temps better so more snow than sleet probably. I really had a good feel for winter and rain events in leesburg and aldie but zero clue out here in Stephenson. Good luck to everyone 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

If you read the 2nd part of that I said I’d be back in if 6z stopped the bleeding. So far so good.

Keep us posted each model run please!

[WxUSAF]

Needed a break by about 7pm yesterday. Think I was mostly scrolling this forum for like 13-14 hours 

Thankfully things didn’t go to shit overnight. 8-14” still looks like a solid range for most of us in the metro area at this stage. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Keep us posted each model run please!

It’s contingent on the euro. I saw it’s 0z run and it was a massive improvement, if it continues then in 100% back in. If it’s still looking good at 12z then consider me on board the hype train.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

8-14” still looks like a solid range for most of us in the metro area at this stage.

Might bump up if the euro improvements stick.

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Needed a break by about 7pm yesterday. Think I was mostly scrolling this forum for like 13-14 hours 

Thankfully things didn’t go to shit overnight. 8-14” still looks like a solid range for most of us in the metro area at this stage. 

Yeah I had to step away for a bit too 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

Might bump up if the euro improvements stick.

To use CWG’s terms, there’s definitely a boom scenario with high ratios and stronger WAA thump than modeled. Bust scenario is faster sleet mixing. Combine both options and I’m back to 8-14”. 

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Needed a break by about 7pm yesterday. Think I was mostly scrolling this forum for like 13-14 hours 

Thankfully things didn’t go to shit overnight. 8-14” still looks like a solid range for most of us in the metro area at this stage. 

Passed out at 945 back up at 530 and at it again. We a bunch of sickos! 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yeah I had to step away for a bit too 

WBAL slightly increasing? Low end now 6”, same likely range, high end now “15+”

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

To use CWG’s terms, there’s definitely a boom scenario with high ratios and stronger WAA thump than modeled. Bust scenario is faster sleet mixing. Combine both options and I’m back to 8-14”. 

I think CWG snow index is still only 8/10 for an inch of snow

[mappy]

Have a meeting at 1 this afternoon 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

WBAL slightly increasing? Low end now 6”, same likely range, high end now “15+”

I saw that. Wouldn’t surprise me if they increased it inch by inch over the next couple days. 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WBAL slightly increasing? Low end now 6”, same likely range, high end now “15+”

Does it really matter what they show? I don’t even look at other stations forecast cause I can forecast for myself hahaha 

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Does it really matter what they show? I don’t even look at other stations forecast cause I can forecast for myself hahaha 

I’m mostly curious what info the normies are getting. Family friend that visited last night was lamenting the rapid Apple weather app snow total changes…