January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[NorthArlington101]

Didn't realize how late the flip was for 6z... this is actually a bit earlier of a flip. Still later than most guidance. Hug to your heart's content.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS 1 pm flip DC

DC is a good bit north of the 546 height lines for sleet vs usual. Gotta be ultra shallow layer at that point.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

That is exactly what we want to see, and hopefully models respond as such. 

[CAPE]

12z GFS gets heavier precip in quicker- nice thump

[LP08]

I think we want it to amp early.  The low is way way west of us. Toggle the full us map at 39. That stream of overrunning is what we want and not some disjointed flat system. If it’s flat it sends the best early stuff south and we wait for the second and that comes with the warmth.  

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

I think we want it to amp early.  The low is way way west of us. Toggle the full us map at 39. That stream of overrunning is what we want and not some disjointed flat system. If it’s flat it sends the best early stuff south and we wait for the second and that comes with the warmth.  

I agree in some ways, especially since no one’s complaining if we get a 2014 10-14” thump 

[clskinsfan]

GFS is flipping back to snow to the west as well. Interesting change. 

[Shad]

GFS is a crippling Ice event for me down in the Northern Neck   5 inches snow, 1 inch sleet, 3/4 inch freezing rain

[balltermen]

For DC and South - precip after hypo 10 am flip

[Ji]

did some post the RGEM...good grief

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

I don't think its that because Kuchera is lower than snow depth as well

It's the sleet, if you add up the just snow and the just sleet panels...it looks close to that depth map 

[NorthArlington101]

The GFS and the RGEM/GEM aren't world's apart. 3hr difference on the flip. Both pretty solid on the thump. If the EURO shows a 5-6" thump I'll chillax.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is flipping back to snow to the west as well. Interesting change. 

Okay so here we are at what...48 hrs? Are there any signs of a cave so far?

[LP08]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I agree in some ways, especially since no one’s complaining if we get a 2014 10-14” thump 

For sure. The coastal transfer is a pipe dream for the majority of the form excluding far and nw. Some of the best runs snowfall wise were those early Ukie runs than ran the primary way west but were super amped with the overrunning. 
 

I think it’s a lost cause of trying to get it south of us-transfer and hope.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Gonna hug the terrible GFS 

It has incrementally moved towards the Euro- gets plain rain on the lower eastern shore for a time with the low closer to the coast.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, LP08 said:

For sure. The coastal transfer is a pipe dream for the majority of the form excluding far and nw. Some of the best runs snowfall wise were those early Ukie runs than ran the primary way west but were super amped with the overrunning. 
 

I think it’s a lost cause of trying to get it south of us-transfer and hope.

Yeah I know my BY can afford a little wiggle room vs metros obviously, but I am okay with everyone winning and getting 10+ OTG and rolling dice from there; see where the chips fall. RGEM thumped super hard at 12z too. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

It has incrementally moved towards the Euro- gets plain rain on the lower eastern shore for a time with the low closer to the coast.

The low is tucked there

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

For sure. The coastal transfer is a pipe dream for the majority of the form excluding far and nw. Some of the best runs snowfall wise were those early Ukie runs than ran the primary way west but were super amped with the overrunning. 
 

I think it’s a lost cause of trying to get it south of us-transfer and hope.

A second reply to say the coastal is closer to the coast and the models are trending in the gfs direction of giving a change back to snow for some and adding several inches, it’s at least something to watch. 

[jayyy]

WSW for 12-18! Bullish

[Ji]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

18z prob isn't snow...i wish it was tho..another great panel

i think 18z could be snow. If its heavy enough may it fights off the sleet

[jayyy]

Also, the GFS is wildly consistent. Expect the GEFS to be lit up (albeit way less important)

[DDweatherman]

Can someone post a total QPF map for the 12z runs, at least NAM and GFS? GFS seemed pretty damn wet. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This is rather concerning. I really thought a low end forecast would be roughly 4 inches of sleet/snow for Nova down along the wedge to Cvill. We need the NAM to fold, and for every run where it doesn't it gets more and more worrying. 

So a minimum 4" snowfall all along i95. What exactly is the issue here? I assume the fantasy runs earlier in the week skewed our expectations quite a bit?

[balltermen]

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Doesn't want to flip D.C. til right after 1pm. Hope it's not the worst model in the world.

It's marginal.  For DC and southern burbs, I'm going with 16z flip to hedge against the scary models. I have a feeling that will be about right. 

We'll know tomorrow. I don't foresee a situation where models have settled on say a noon flip and we go to sleet at 8 am.  

[TowsonWeather]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It has incrementally moved towards the Euro- gets plain rain on the lower eastern shore for a time with the low closer to the coast.

Not really.

It's just as accurate to say the Euro has incrementally moved to the GFS.

The GFS, for better or for worse, has been one of the most consistent models over the last couple of days (once it finally figured out there was a storm for us, lol) in terms of how it sees the evolution of this thing unfolding. And yeah, the raw snowfall output has crept down a bit and the ice component crept up a bit, but the Euro (and some other models) have taken clear steps toward the GFS in terms of expanding the frozen precip shield more back to the S and SE and not being as aggressive with driving the low into Toledo and initiating a lower latitude transfer to the coast.

 

(edited to add: I'm  not ENDORSING the GFS - either this current solution or the model more generally - I'm just kind of puzzled by the extent to which people analyze model trends through their preconceptions. We all "know" the GFS is "bad" so we frame things through the prism of it "folding" even when better models have trended more towards it than otherwise...)

[peribonca]

8 minutes ago, Shad said:

GFS is a crippling Ice event for me down in the Northern Neck   5 inches snow, 1 inch sleet, 3/4 inch freezing rain

Thinking of leaving Colonial Beach and going to DC for this one. I hate freezing rain and the forested roads around the area are primed for a severe pruning

[hstorm]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Can someone post a total QPF map for the 12z runs, at least NAM and GFS? GFS seemed pretty damn wet. 

GFS:

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

CMC looks nice and thumpy.  8 inches for DC and a foot for the favored spots NW. 

[hstorm]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Can someone post a total QPF map for the 12z runs, at least NAM and GFS? GFS seemed pretty damn wet. 

12k NAM:

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TowsonWeather said:

Not really.

It's just as accurate to say the Euro has incrementally moved to the GFS.

The GFS, for better or for worse, has been one of the most consistent models over the last couple of days (once it finally figured out there was a storm for us, lol) in terms of how it sees the evolution of this thing unfolding. And yeah, the raw snowfall output has crept down a bit and the ice component crept up a bit, but the Euro (and some other models) have taken clear steps toward the GFS in terms of expanding the frozen precip shield more back to the S and SE and not being as aggressive with driving the low into Toledo and initiating a lower latitude transfer to the coast.

I actually agree with this. I find they’re meeting in the middle and have moved towards each other since yesterday, including some of the aspects where the Euro has moved more towards the GFS (snow on the backside of the storm).