January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

If the Nam flips the same time as the other models it would be a huge hit

Yup..we need one more panel....2 more like the GFS and we all would have been in here celebrating

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

700s and 850s below 0 at 12z. Why the sleet

Could be just mis aligned on the model. But ur right it's clearly below 0c 

[LP08]

It’s only like 0.3-0.4 qpf pre flip.  That won’t do it

[stormtracker]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12K NAM at 63- my snow hole is back

Well, that's a kick in the balls.   BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far out

[LP08]

Just now, LP08 said:

It’s only like 0.3-0.4 qpf pre flip.  That won’t do it

Near the city I meant to add.

[balltermen]

3K is clean when it truncates

[DDweatherman]

Just now, balltermen said:

3K is clean when it truncates

Definitely an all snow sounding there.

[stormtracker]

Before anybody panic, why not just wait until the entire 0z suite is over...and also remember what we're talking about here

[NorthArlington101]

3k precip through 7am is anemic. Jeez.

[StormyClearweather]

3K is definitely slower on the changeover, still has most of us in snow (including DCA) at 60. 

[Ji]

Well, that's a kick in the balls.   BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far out

Since when is the Nam dry lol it need to retire better than Jordan with the wizards

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Sorry off the topic here High Risk but since you're a met maybe you can help.

Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then?

Are they basing it solely on the Euro?

In this area many businesses and obviously hospitals etc. etc. are making some difficult decisions, grocery stores have been ransacked with everything bought off the shelves in cases, because we keep being told that we are going to have a massive ice storm, and that it's not possible but actually probable most of the area loses power.

Because let's face a few inches of snow here and then sleet that is not a big deal at all.

     

       The Euro and its ensemble contribute heavily to the NBM, which is the starting point for these forecasts.   And I disagree with you:  several inches of snow followed by a ton of sleet would be a very big deal at these temperatures.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Sorry off the topic here High Risk but since you're a met maybe you can help.

Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then?

Are they basing it solely on the Euro?

In this area many businesses and obviously hospitals etc. etc. are making some difficult decisions, grocery stores have been ransacked with everything bought off the shelves in cases, because we keep being told that we are going to have a massive ice storm, and that it's not possible but actually probable most of the area loses power.

Because let's face a few inches of snow here and then sleet that is not a big deal at all.

From the POV of NWS, their mission is to protect life and property. Given a difficult call between forecasting a few inches of plowable snow/sleet and a devastating ice storm, where it could really go either way or have both in the same region, I think they would rather warn people of the worst case scenario. Because if they don’t, and the ice storm happened, that would be a mission failure on their part, and it may cost people lives and property. Yes, there is also risk of a busted ice storm forecast in the eyes of the public, but that would be preferable over the former scenario. 

[DDweatherman]

The NAM’s run to run differences are amusing to say the least. I’m not that worried after seeing most of what the 18z suite had to offer us.

[Yeoman]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, that's a kick in the balls.   BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far out

NAM too dry? That would be a first..

[LP08]

They are so far removed from the upper level support they kind of peter out as it moves east.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z 3K NAM 7am Sunday (much colder) compared to 12K

[Ji]

Sorry but this is insanely low

[balltermen]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Definitely an all snow sounding there.

i think the non-weenie move is to go with the earliest flip time if it's not a major outlier.  and then maybe some people get lucky.  mid morning?  for DC 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Yeoman said:

NAM too dry? That would be a first..

Exactly and I'm honestly not even concerned....yet.    I mean, I'm sure there's a reason as to how it arrived there, but still

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

Sorry but this is insanely low

Ud think with 850s that low that warm air wouldn't be able to erode  so quickly 

[Nomz]

Here's why its changing over to snow:

[87storms]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z 3K NAM 7am Sunday ( colder) compared to 12K

Of course it is lol.  We're gonna be fine.  It's gonna be in the teens and negative dews Saturday evening.

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Exactly and I'm honestly not even concerned....yet.    I mean, I'm sure there's a reason as to how it arrived there, but still

Yup I should total go with the nam and toss the euro. Come on the nam is a pathetic model. 

[ChillinIt]

FV3 !

[MillvilleWx]

10 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said:

What are expected rates per hour? Is 2" possible during the heaviest time frame?

Yes. 1-2”/hr will be common in bands during the WAA thump and even some bands could hit 2-3”/hr at peak intensity. 

[Weather Will]

After seeing the 3K comparison, think we are wasting our time looking at the 12K.  Need to wait for the 3K to be in range tomorrow.

[peribonca]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Sorry but this is insanely low

That'll make some hard sleet pellets

[balltermen]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Yup I should total go with the nam and toss the euro. Come on the nam is a pathetic model. 

there's really no reason to use a low res meso model outside of its range for granularity.  But it is a red flag.

fortunately the 3k is a bit colder  

[LP08]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Exactly and I'm honestly not even concerned....yet.    I mean, I'm sure there's a reason as to how it arrived there, but still

Earlier runs brought the souther Baja low quicker, providing support for moisture transport (I’m not saying this right but whatevs) Every subsequent run has been holding it back, keeping the long wave trough more positive. System turns into two events.