winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Ji said: 700s and 850s below 0 at 12z. Why the sleet Could be just mis aligned on the model. But ur right it's clearly below 0c 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 It’s only like 0.3-0.4 qpf pre flip. That won’t do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM at 63- my snow hole is back Well, that's a kick in the balls. BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, LP08 said: It’s only like 0.3-0.4 qpf pre flip. That won’t do it Near the city I meant to add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3K is clean when it truncates 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, balltermen said: 3K is clean when it truncates Definitely an all snow sounding there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Before anybody panic, why not just wait until the entire 0z suite is over...and also remember what we're talking about here 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3k precip through 7am is anemic. Jeez. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3K is definitely slower on the changeover, still has most of us in snow (including DCA) at 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Well, that's a kick in the balls. BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far outSince when is the Nam dry lol it need to retire better than Jordan with the wizards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Sorry off the topic here High Risk but since you're a met maybe you can help. Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then? Are they basing it solely on the Euro? In this area many businesses and obviously hospitals etc. etc. are making some difficult decisions, grocery stores have been ransacked with everything bought off the shelves in cases, because we keep being told that we are going to have a massive ice storm, and that it's not possible but actually probable most of the area loses power. Because let's face a few inches of snow here and then sleet that is not a big deal at all. The Euro and its ensemble contribute heavily to the NBM, which is the starting point for these forecasts. And I disagree with you: several inches of snow followed by a ton of sleet would be a very big deal at these temperatures. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Sorry off the topic here High Risk but since you're a met maybe you can help. Why do you think Wakefield is using such strong verbiage about concern with an ice storm for Richmond then? Are they basing it solely on the Euro? In this area many businesses and obviously hospitals etc. etc. are making some difficult decisions, grocery stores have been ransacked with everything bought off the shelves in cases, because we keep being told that we are going to have a massive ice storm, and that it's not possible but actually probable most of the area loses power. Because let's face a few inches of snow here and then sleet that is not a big deal at all. From the POV of NWS, their mission is to protect life and property. Given a difficult call between forecasting a few inches of plowable snow/sleet and a devastating ice storm, where it could really go either way or have both in the same region, I think they would rather warn people of the worst case scenario. Because if they don’t, and the ice storm happened, that would be a mission failure on their part, and it may cost people lives and property. Yes, there is also risk of a busted ice storm forecast in the eyes of the public, but that would be preferable over the former scenario. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The NAM’s run to run differences are amusing to say the least. I’m not that worried after seeing most of what the 18z suite had to offer us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, that's a kick in the balls. BUT...it's the NAM and hopefully it's too dry this far out NAM too dry? That would be a first.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 They are so far removed from the upper level support they kind of peter out as it moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 WB 0Z 3K NAM 7am Sunday (much colder) compared to 12K 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Sorry but this is insanely low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Definitely an all snow sounding there. i think the non-weenie move is to go with the earliest flip time if it's not a major outlier. and then maybe some people get lucky. mid morning? for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: NAM too dry? That would be a first.. Exactly and I'm honestly not even concerned....yet. I mean, I'm sure there's a reason as to how it arrived there, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Ji said: Sorry but this is insanely low Ud think with 850s that low that warm air wouldn't be able to erode so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Here's why its changing over to snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM 7am Sunday ( colder) compared to 12K Of course it is lol. We're gonna be fine. It's gonna be in the teens and negative dews Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, stormtracker said: Exactly and I'm honestly not even concerned....yet. I mean, I'm sure there's a reason as to how it arrived there, but still Yup I should total go with the nam and toss the euro. Come on the nam is a pathetic model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 FV3 ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 10 minutes ago, Miss Pixee said: What are expected rates per hour? Is 2" possible during the heaviest time frame? Yes. 1-2”/hr will be common in bands during the WAA thump and even some bands could hit 2-3”/hr at peak intensity. 5 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 After seeing the 3K comparison, think we are wasting our time looking at the 12K. Need to wait for the 3K to be in range tomorrow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Sorry but this is insanely low That'll make some hard sleet pellets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
balltermen Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Yup I should total go with the nam and toss the euro. Come on the nam is a pathetic model. there's really no reason to use a low res meso model outside of its range for granularity. But it is a red flag. fortunately the 3k is a bit colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Exactly and I'm honestly not even concerned....yet. I mean, I'm sure there's a reason as to how it arrived there, but still Earlier runs brought the souther Baja low quicker, providing support for moisture transport (I’m not saying this right but whatevs) Every subsequent run has been holding it back, keeping the long wave trough more positive. System turns into two events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM 7am Sunday (much colder) compared to 12K Thanks for pointing that out. The 12k and 3k might as well be two different models. May sound like a weenie, but I’d lean more on the 3k within 48 hours of onset. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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