January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

NW of 70 looks to stay snow too? 

We should, except for maybe 2-3 hours of mix worst case. Being conservative obviously. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

My God, is the GFS actually leading the way? 

King GFS?

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

lol some models go one way others go another got to love it 

 That's why we call the 18z model runs this time of day Happy hour,,.... Cause half the models act like they are drunk 

[bncho]

Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z, unless you live far NW

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z

That shouldn't be the case based on those maps.

[wxmeddler]

Euro is trending slower w/ the primary.

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z, unless you live far NW

Looks good to me!

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z, unless you live far NW

Acceptable 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z, unless you live far NW

Looks realistic tbh, can’t say I have anything to pick at against

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Euro is trending slower w/ the primary.

Slower or weaker?

[mitchnick]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Acceptable 

That's thru Sunday 6pm only

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z, unless you live far NW

Is the storm over  ? Or is it still going at that point . It's only 23z Sunday there

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO

[aldie 22]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO

More acceptable 

[Weather Will]

NW zones flipped a little later this run.  Now we wait to see if just noise or a trend for 0Z.

[feloniousq]

Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z, unless you live far NW

Long way left to go. 9.4 at Dulles at 6 PM is pretty sweet


.

[ErinInTheSky]

That's a wild amount of zr. Is it legitimate, or are we thinking more of that falls as sleet?

[wxmeddler]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Slower or weaker?

Mostly slower, what that means yet, I'm not sure. It's getting pretty locked in on the synoptic evolution it seems. A deceleration in the dProg/dT

[Warm Nose]

I'd call that a slight step towards the GFS. Which most of us should be happy with stopping the trend.

[TSSN+]

Just now, ErinInTheSky said:

That's a wild amount of zr. Is it legitimate, or are we thinking more of that falls as sleet?

More is sleet you can see the sleet panels is weird euro doesn’t display sleet correctly on the map. 

[jayyy]

Since 18z most models have surprisingly budged toward the GFS at h5, not the other way around.

00z is gonna be interesting

[wxmeddler]

When in doubt; Trust the Synoptics. And the Synoptics say that there will be a low tracking up the OHV. I don't see the GFS fast coastal solution being defensible when looking at the other guidance.

Edit: I would love to be wrong

[WxUSAF]

Just based on @stormtrackermaps I would have guessed more snow than 12z. Whatever. I’m about done for today. Need a brain break.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Good euro run for the northern tier, keeps them all snow basically the whole storm.  Let’s get another shift. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just based on @stormtrackermaps I would have guessed more snow than 12z. Whatever. I’m about done for today. Need a brain break.

Same. Hope 00z is better for all. Mix events are exasperating to work.

[Ellinwood]

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

[GreyHat]

Is there any data input to these models and if not when does the sampling begin. 

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Ellinwood said:

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

Purpled!! Love your maps and forecasts. Everyone would and should be happy if this come to fruition 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ellinwood said:

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

Nice im not sure I've seen those colors on your maps before. Hopefully you are right im pulling for you

[wxmeddler]

You know what's really interesting... The Euro-AIFS and AIGFS are really similar. Like scarily so.