January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[paulythegun]

Just now, hstorm said:

ICON and RGEM both seem pretty similar to their 12z runs, at least as to final outcomes.

Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM...

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, jayyy said:

Come on GFS, lift up the mood

9-10 in the metros is a down mood?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I feel like confluence is one of those things that never trends stronger going into gametime. Maybe it's just the position we usually watch from, but I feel like we're always watching it weaken. Or maybe I'm totally crazy.

Ohhh it did once...when NC got that blizzard in Dec 2018...oof. I remember that lobe up there trending stronger and stronger, lol

[SnowenOutThere]

If the NAM replacement has any clue about the thermal profiles the sleet bomb for Central VA is going to be legit freezing rain. 

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

You mean like these convos going on back on Tuesday?

Or this?

[midatlanticweather]

We are seeing the snow whittled away. Who says we can't fail? We can fail some.. and win some.. just sucks to get sucked in with pretty colors! Still worry about that last pull north before a little recovery. 

But I am the Debbie downer, but these situations stink. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM...

Oh man that would be a disaster. Thank the gods it's the RGEM.

[Wxdavis5784]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This is fun and tragic and fun at the same time.   We are at a moment where we are hoping the GFS is right.

I love you guys.    Prepping for the GFS...

I know this is banter and 100% weenie, but that's what the southern folks in TN/NC were rooting for just a couple days ago... 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Ohhh it did once...when NC got that blizzard in Dec 2018...oof. I remember that lobe up there trending stronger and stronger, lol

Getting dangerously close to banter so mods move if you want but I'm pretty sure that was an instance of confluence weakening. Snowstorm wasn't really supposed to make it as far as it did (i.e., to Cville, Fredericksburg) a day or two before it happened. Folks probably wanted it to weaken more then it did but it weakened. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

If the NAM replacement has any clue about the thermal profiles the sleet bomb for Central VA is going to be legit freezing rain. 

Says sleet as precip type?

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Oh man that would be a disaster. Thank the gods it's the RGEM.

If snow is the target, 18z RGEM is a step above 12z. Big step for far southern zones.

[Bob Chill]

RGEM is likely too heavy on QPF. 2.5" total in my yard. .9 snow, 1.1 sleet, and .5 zr.  I highly doubt that's right but I can't help having some fun with what kind of glacier that would make down this way. Cleaning up would be a disaster but it almost seems worth it for the experience alone. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Says sleet as precip type?

No, Freezing rain. Was saying that the other globals with their sleet solutions are wrong according to this high res model. 

[hstorm]

4 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM...

RGEM did the same thing at 12z.

[wxdude64]

8 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM...

That is a ridiculously crazy CAD. 

[umdterps29]

9 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM...

Oh good now I can get some rain to go along with my less than impressive snow amounts. Fun

[wxdude64]

10 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

It is also a QPF nuke (in my experience, it generally overdoes precip).

No matter what kind of precip (minus the frz rain that would be devastating), that amount of liquid would certainly help on the dry/drought situation. Course, that much locked up in snow/sleet with a slow run-off would be the best situation to perk down into the ground. 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM...

lol that's awful. The model is generally crappy though, just like its global parent.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

No, Freezing rain. Was saying that the other globals with their sleet solutions are wrong according to this high res model. 

Look at the bottom right of the chart. What am I missing?

[wxdude64]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

RGEM is likely too heavy on QPF. 2.5" total in my yard. .9 snow, 1.1 sleet, and .5 zr.  I highly doubt that's right but I can't help having some fun with what kind of glacier that would make down this way. Cleaning up would be a disaster but it almost seems worth it for the experience alone. 

There would be a 3 year firewood supply after, minimum. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

GFS is rolling. Will it hold or cave? My guess is that it stubbornly holds. The island life is too good. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Look at the bottom right of the chart. What am I missing?

Ah my bad, guess the map just showed freezing rain for funsies. Though with a layer that warm I'd think freezing rain isn't unlikely? 

[stormtracker]

Early.     No changes at all.

[CAPE]

Mount Holly slightly bullish for here for now- 4-8" Sat night, then snow/sleet Fr rain on Sunday, snow could be heavy at times. Kinda hedging their bets.. seems like they don't really see enough of a consensus among the guidance. Haven't read their AFD yet. First things first- Getting a couple bourbons in me lol.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Ah my bad, guess the map just showed freezing rain for funsies. Though with a layer that warm I'd think freezing rain isn't unlikely? 

That is a deep and cold surface layer. I dunno. I remember seeing some of the profiles from the 1994 super cold ZR events and the near surface inversion was bonkers. Upper 10s to like 40-50 a stones throw up above.

[stormtracker]

39..confluence or flow out in front is flatter

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

39..confluence or flow out in front is flatter

Gimme flat. Need flatter flow.

[SnowenOutThere]

Ready for the GFS

 

[stormtracker]

GFS is definitely flatter a tad further south with the precip shield so far

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS is definitely flatter a tad further south with the precip shield so far

Further east NS and further S SW. Seems to want to stick to its guns.