paulythegun Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, hstorm said: ICON and RGEM both seem pretty similar to their 12z runs, at least as to final outcomes. Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, jayyy said: Come on GFS, lift up the mood 9-10 in the metros is a down mood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I feel like confluence is one of those things that never trends stronger going into gametime. Maybe it's just the position we usually watch from, but I feel like we're always watching it weaken. Or maybe I'm totally crazy. Ohhh it did once...when NC got that blizzard in Dec 2018...oof. I remember that lobe up there trending stronger and stronger, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago If the NAM replacement has any clue about the thermal profiles the sleet bomb for Central VA is going to be legit freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: You mean like these convos going on back on Tuesday? Or this? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago We are seeing the snow whittled away. Who says we can't fail? We can fail some.. and win some.. just sucks to get sucked in with pretty colors! Still worry about that last pull north before a little recovery. But I am the Debbie downer, but these situations stink. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM... Oh man that would be a disaster. Thank the gods it's the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This is fun and tragic and fun at the same time. We are at a moment where we are hoping the GFS is right. I love you guys. Prepping for the GFS... I know this is banter and 100% weenie, but that's what the southern folks in TN/NC were rooting for just a couple days ago... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Ohhh it did once...when NC got that blizzard in Dec 2018...oof. I remember that lobe up there trending stronger and stronger, lol Getting dangerously close to banter so mods move if you want but I'm pretty sure that was an instance of confluence weakening. Snowstorm wasn't really supposed to make it as far as it did (i.e., to Cville, Fredericksburg) a day or two before it happened. Folks probably wanted it to weaken more then it did but it weakened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: If the NAM replacement has any clue about the thermal profiles the sleet bomb for Central VA is going to be legit freezing rain. Says sleet as precip type? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Oh man that would be a disaster. Thank the gods it's the RGEM. If snow is the target, 18z RGEM is a step above 12z. Big step for far southern zones. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago RGEM is likely too heavy on QPF. 2.5" total in my yard. .9 snow, 1.1 sleet, and .5 zr. I highly doubt that's right but I can't help having some fun with what kind of glacier that would make down this way. Cleaning up would be a disaster but it almost seems worth it for the experience alone. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WxUSAF said: Says sleet as precip type? No, Freezing rain. Was saying that the other globals with their sleet solutions are wrong according to this high res model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM... RGEM did the same thing at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM... That is a ridiculously crazy CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM... Oh good now I can get some rain to go along with my less than impressive snow amounts. Fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, Paleocene said: It is also a QPF nuke (in my experience, it generally overdoes precip). No matter what kind of precip (minus the frz rain that would be devastating), that amount of liquid would certainly help on the dry/drought situation. Course, that much locked up in snow/sleet with a slow run-off would be the best situation to perk down into the ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Surface temps flirt with the freezing line on RGEM... lol that's awful. The model is generally crappy though, just like its global parent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: No, Freezing rain. Was saying that the other globals with their sleet solutions are wrong according to this high res model. Look at the bottom right of the chart. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: RGEM is likely too heavy on QPF. 2.5" total in my yard. .9 snow, 1.1 sleet, and .5 zr. I highly doubt that's right but I can't help having some fun with what kind of glacier that would make down this way. Cleaning up would be a disaster but it almost seems worth it for the experience alone. There would be a 3 year firewood supply after, minimum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS is rolling. Will it hold or cave? My guess is that it stubbornly holds. The island life is too good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WxUSAF said: Look at the bottom right of the chart. What am I missing? Ah my bad, guess the map just showed freezing rain for funsies. Though with a layer that warm I'd think freezing rain isn't unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Early. No changes at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Mount Holly slightly bullish for here for now- 4-8" Sat night, then snow/sleet Fr rain on Sunday, snow could be heavy at times. Kinda hedging their bets.. seems like they don't really see enough of a consensus among the guidance. Haven't read their AFD yet. First things first- Getting a couple bourbons in me lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Ah my bad, guess the map just showed freezing rain for funsies. Though with a layer that warm I'd think freezing rain isn't unlikely? That is a deep and cold surface layer. I dunno. I remember seeing some of the profiles from the 1994 super cold ZR events and the near surface inversion was bonkers. Upper 10s to like 40-50 a stones throw up above. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 39..confluence or flow out in front is flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, stormtracker said: 39..confluence or flow out in front is flatter Gimme flat. Need flatter flow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ready for the GFS 12 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS is definitely flatter a tad further south with the precip shield so far 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, stormtracker said: GFS is definitely flatter a tad further south with the precip shield so far Further east NS and further S SW. Seems to want to stick to its guns. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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