January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[nj2va]

00z NBM Paralell, highest snow totals N/W of 95 which matches climo/sensible outcomes in these setups.  LFG! 

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

RRFS A looks better thru 68 hours. Brought the STJ piece more south and looks like it's less interested in a quick phase. Lower heights out front.

Listen man I'd hope its south considering this is its 18z run that ends with the sleet line through NOVA

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

00z NBM, highest snow totals N/W of 95 which matches climo/sensible outcomes in these setups.  LFG! 

Can.you please post the kuchera on that with a slightly more NE view?

[baltosquid]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Listen man I'd hope its south considering this is its 18z run that ends with the sleet line through NOVA

Lol I mentioned how rough it was earlier. Idk I have a suspicion this thing ain't ready for prime time but I guess I have to look closer at <48 hrs to see how it really fares. Or maybe we will get skunked.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

00z NBM, highest snow totals N/W of 95 which matches climo/sensible outcomes in these setups.  LFG! 

whats flat ice?

[baltosquid]

ICON ensembles. Love that high. Verbatim less low signaling in WV/OHV

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Listen man I'd hope its south considering this is its 18z run that ends with the sleet line through NOVA

that model is not ready for the big leagues yet. Needs to spend a few more years in A Ball

[clskinsfan]

The cold is just unrelenting on the ICON. Brutal. 

[bncho]

Can anybody confirm whether this is legit?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Can anybody confirm whether this is legit?

Check date on that 12.23.25

[Army Mike]

If Cranky puts that out i would assume so

[bncho]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Check date on that

1/21/2026. It's today.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

whats flat ice?

Actually that was the NBM Parallel, so many models geez.  Here’s the ‘regular’ NBM…never knew there were multiple NBMs.

 

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Lol I mentioned how rough it was earlier. Idk I have a suspicion this thing ain't ready for prime time but I guess I have to look closer at <48 hrs to see how it really fares. Or maybe we will get skunked.

       

            The issue is that any regional model is likely to struggle beyond Day 2 due to the influences of the boundaries.    People love to punch the NAM, but a lot of good mets realize that the NAM Nest can do some great things inside of Day 2.    I suspect we're going to find out the same for RRFS......

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

1/21/2026. It's today.

Then no I cannot confirm lol. Timestamp is different 12.23.25

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Army Mike said:

If Cranky puts that out i would assume so

He's Content now 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Can anybody confirm whether this is legit?

why would he lie?

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

1/21/2026. It's today.

He means the red at the bottom, but it’s just a date range. 

[pazzo83]

just to clarify - RRFS is the NAM repalcement?

[high risk]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Actually that was the NBM Parallel, so many models geez.  Here’s the ‘regular’ NBM…never knew there were multiple NBMs.

   

             I recommend using the parallel for the winter stuff - it's much improved for those products

[bncho]

Just now, weathercoins said:

The Tweet, not the sounding 

The sounding was today as well, though.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Actually that was the NBM Parallel, so many models geez.  Here’s the ‘regular’ NBM…never knew there were multiple NBMs.

 

That’s got to be kuchera, right?

[ravensrule]

Just now, pazzo83 said:

just to clarify - RRFS is the NAM repalcement?

Yes. 

[Nomz]

NWS LWX posted an AFD about an hour ago. Too much to fit in one post but anyone who hasn't seen it should check it out.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

just to clarify - RRFS is the NAM repalcement?

Yes

[nj2va]

Just now, high risk said:

   

             I recommend using the parallel for the winter stuff - it's much improved for those products

It seemed way more reasonable than the ‘regular’ NBM.  Are they retiring the ‘regular’ in favor of the parallel?

[high risk]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

That’s got to be kuchera, right?

     

      The NBM does not use Kuchera.   It uses a mix of different SLR techniques.

[Ji]

this has amazing music

 

[high risk]

Just now, nj2va said:

It seemed way more reasonable than the ‘regular’ NBM.  Are they retiring the ‘regular’ in favor of the parallel?

        It's not really a retirement.   It's an upgrade, just like is done routinely with models.    Goal is to live in April.

[Army Mike]