January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[stormtracker]

Looks to be begining to phase/interact more at 45 but it's still noticeably further west and less so than 18z

[snowfan]

Good background info from Jeremy on winter recon....

https://x.com/i/status/2014061179061092580

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks to be begining to phase/interact more at 45 but it's still further west and less so than 18z

Wonder if we actually want the phase further west or further east. I think further east is better as it gives it less time to pump the ridge in front? Conversely, a further west phase may leave more energy behind so who knows.

[LVblizzard]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So the heres a run of the euro from way back when it had the snow max in southern virginia...

Here is the 0z NAM

Clearly they are not the same setup. Need to see how that NS entering the Pac NW interacts with it. Additionally, the huge jumps north are from a different NS lobe that only enters our viewing angle at hour 60. 

The northern stream feature on that Euro run was likely much different from what most guidance is showing now. It has really trended west in the last 2 days.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Wonder if we actually want the phase further west or further east. I think further east is better as it gives it less time to pump the ridge in front? Conversely, a further west phase may leave more energy behind so who knows.

I was just contemplating the same and yes, farther east. May make for a shorter duration system but will limit the heights rising and mix threat

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I was just contemplating the same and yes, farther east. May make for a shorter duration system but will limit the heights rising and mix threat

True, but I wonder if having the SW come east quicker just raises the ability for it to phase while if it stays west long enough the NS will interfere destructively. Honestly I have no idea anymore. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

True, but I wonder if having the SW come east quicker just raises the ability for it to phase while if it stays west long enough the NS will interfere destructively. Honestly I have no idea anymore. 

We just need a partial phase not full. Grab some of the sw energy but trail some behind as well. 

[LVblizzard]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wonder if we actually want the phase further west or further east. I think further east is better as it gives it less time to pump the ridge in front? Conversely, a further west phase may leave more energy behind so who knows.

We really want the confluence to be stronger and the high to stick around for longer. That will give us the long duration blizzard we all want.

[stormtracker]

yeah the differences between 18z and now out west are pretty evident with that s/w

[87storms]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

True, but I wonder if having the SW come east quicker just raises the ability for it to phase while if it stays west long enough the NS will interfere destructively. Honestly I have no idea anymore. 

I don’t get paid to do this, but that map says (and has said) to me that suppression/sheared is still the more likely outcome. But if it cuts to Detroit, then I was just kidding.

[Scraff]

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Looks like TWC ingested the data as they are honking about 1-2 ft in our area. They gotta keep viewers 

That’s literally the only place I get my weather. Good to know! But I could use a change. Man, if only there were some cool-ass, like-minded weather nerds out there—ranging in age from fresh baby diapers all the way to Depends—who actually knew what they were talking about. Anyone have an idea where I might find something like that? 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

yeah the differences between 18z and now out west are pretty evident with that s/w

It’s taking a detour to Mexico. 

[nj2va]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

It’s taking a detour to Mexico. 

The NS at H51 is also a bit west of 18z so I wonder if they offset.  I have no clue what to look for as others have stated.

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wonder if we actually want the phase further west or further east. I think further east is better as it gives it less time to pump the ridge in front? Conversely, a further west phase may leave more energy behind so who knows.

None of us know, lol.  I guess we're about to find some things out.

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

yeah the differences between 18z and now out west are pretty evident with that s/w

Biggest difference is that it still has two closed isobars on the vort map compared to 18z being a completely open wave 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Nomz said:

I would not encourage the level of NAM extrapolation that I'm seeing right now. Go say your final goodbyes before we all have a mass aneurysm over the 00z suite.

Not sure anybody is extrapolating as we all are admitting we don't know what we're looking for, but rather just talking about what we're looking AT

[stormtracker]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Biggest difference is that it still has two closed isobars on the vort map compared to 18z being a completely open wave 

It's also further south west than it was at 18z

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I would not encourage the level of NAM extrapolation that I'm seeing right now. Go say your final goodbyes before we all have a mass aneurysm over the 00z suite.

The nam is just our dry run for the globals.

[Quasievil]

The last few days of model watching have left me exhausted.

[LVblizzard]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The NS at H51 is also a bit west of 18z so I wonder if they offset.  I have no clue what to look for as others have stated.

I would think that’s not a good thing. If both of those pieces are slower, it gives more time for the confluence to move out and room for this thing to come pretty far north.

[TSSN+]

This is different… lol 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Confluence is displaced a little N this run with higher heights. Not sure we r going to love this. Initial thump will be nice.

[stormtracker]

It's coming out now and starting to interact...looks like it's prob going to go all in  soon and raise height lines

[mitchnick]

I do notice ridging out front in the SE is weaker too in addition to other obs.

[Warm Nose]

Even if this one goes Lucy pull, it's been fun tracking it for a few days.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

I would think that’s not a good thing. If both of those pieces are slower, it gives more time for the confluence to move out and room for this thing to come pretty far north.

The confluence is worse as well. Look at the position of the 50/50 in that animation above. I mean its the NAM. But I think you are right and it ends up north. 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I do notice ridging out front in the SE is weaker too in addition to other obs.

slight decrease since 12z, certainly cant hurt, though probably related to timing differences also. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

slight decrease since 12z, certainly cant hurt.

The shaded colors illustrate it well. I think its an offset and they cancel each other out

[NorthArlington101]

Snowing at NAM at 75. Mix line VA/NC border 

[stormtracker]

Surface maps don't look as bad as I thought so far..