“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[ineedsnow]

ICON  gone wild!

[Masswx]

I know it’s the icon but I really like that look with the low developing behind it

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ICON  gone wild!

LBSNE

[ORH_wxman]

ICON was quite good but not the borderline HECS solution. Develops the coastal pretty good in the low levels but there’s too much ridging ahead of the main shortwave so we don’t get a good conveyor going in the midlevels once the WAA/Overrunning pushes through. That’s why you want to try and keep those heights just a little lower to the north. Not too much or you suppress it….Goldilocks solution is what you are aiming for. Which is why it’s not the likely solution…but still possible.  

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

My Preliminary snowmap will adjust as we get closer!  

Not surprising you got hit with a bag of dicks for posting that map.  Good luck though.  No weenie from me.

[mahk_webstah]

LBChickens?

[Zeus]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON was quite good but not the borderline HECS solution. Develops the coastal pretty good in the low levels but there’s too much ridging ahead of the main shortwave so we don’t get a good conveyor going in the midlevels once the WAA/Overrunning pushes through. That’s why you want to try and keep those heights just a little lower to the north. Not too much or you suppress it….Goldilocks solution is what you are aiming for. Which is why it’s not the likely solution…but still possible.  

It does seem like little steps are being made in that direction run by run with the daytime runs today but we've still got a good amount of clock to eat. There are hints -- whispers! -- of a long duration needle-threader, but most who detect them dare not speak of it. I'm down here just hoping to stop seeing outputs where the primary low is bullying the 1040 high into a beefy cameltoe.

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Not surprising you got hit with a bag of dicks for posting that map.  Good luck though.  No weenie from me.

i'm going with euro ai 

[Layman]

10 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Not surprising you got hit with a bag of dicks for posting that map.  Good luck though.  No weenie from me.

This sounds painful no matter how you approach it...

[HoarfrostHubb]

35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It looked it at hr84.

Crank up the old DGEX!

[CoastalWx]

Models definitely show that weenie CF enhancement.

[moneypitmike]

GyX trying to make me feel less bummed about missing the big dog.

 

Tonight

Snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 21. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[mreaves]

58 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You have trails closed up there?

Mainly in the valleys.  The Champlain and CT River Valleys are lower snow areas.  Lots of early season conditions though.  We have had ok snow but there is some elevation dependency.  Over 1500' and the snow depth increases noticeably.

[UnitedWx]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Crank up the old DGEX!

Crank up the LFM if we're firing the DGEX 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Masswx said:

Why do we think 12z trends were bad? It’s still a 6-10/12 for many

I saw a crap symbol and thought it was from your dad . I totally agree. A general 6 to 12 would be more than welcome

[Kitz Craver]

8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

GyX trying to make me feel less bummed about missing the big dog.

 

Tonight

Snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 21. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

2-4 will definitely freshen things up

[The 4 Seasons]

18 minutes ago, Zeus said:

It does seem like little steps are being made in that direction run by run with the daytime runs today but we've still got a good amount of clock to eat. There are hints -- whispers! -- of a long duration needle-threader, but most who detect them dare not speak of it. I'm down here just hoping to stop seeing outputs where the primary low is bullying the 1040 high into a beefy cameltoe.

Miss you Zeus

[CoastalWx]

Euro has the 850 low into NY state with the 850 WF just off south coast. You want 12”+ then you really want to see closed 850 to our south. Not always the case…but it’s something to keep in mind and a reality check. 

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro has the 850 low into NY state with the 850 WF just off south coast. You want 12”+ then you really want to see closed 850 to our south. Not always the case…but it’s something to keep in mind and a reality check. 

Won’t the 850 low going west introduce dry slot issues?

[wxsniss]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON was quite good but not the borderline HECS solution. Develops the coastal pretty good in the low levels but there’s too much ridging ahead of the main shortwave so we don’t get a good conveyor going in the midlevels once the WAA/Overrunning pushes through. That’s why you want to try and keep those heights just a little lower to the north. Not too much or you suppress it….Goldilocks solution is what you are aiming for. Which is why it’s not the likely solution…but still possible.  

12z CMC and UK also had hints of more potent backend vorticity rounding the trough which would improve coastal development

Just catching up... been a while since we've been staring at a region-wide foot+ with lots of buffer.

Quick look, key variables determining 12"+ vs. 20"+ in SNE include

• proficiency of coastal development, and how well it can vertically stack and better develop a comma head

• ratios: 12-15:1?

• CF enhancement for eastern areas?

Thanks @MegaMike for that link earlier... here's an NBM product I haven't seen before, run 13z Jan 21:

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Won’t the 850 low going west introduce dry slot issues?

More like 700 low but we don’t have a closed H7 low. Sort of like what Will and Seymournhave said…it’s like ASWFE thump followed by lighter snows.

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Won’t the 850 low going west introduce dry slot issues?

If I'm remembering correctly, as long as the warm front stays Southwest of our area we should be okay

[CoastalWx]

18z GFS going flaccid 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is gonna be more tepid...missed phasing out west. 

[UnitedWx]

Anybody have the TPV panel for Sunday? I can't find where I was looking at it yesterday 

[metagraphica]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z GFS going flaccid 

 

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is gonna be more tepid...missed phasing out west. 

"And so it begins."

[ineedsnow]

18Z AI GFS got better atleast

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18Z AI GFS got better atleast

that's the better model, euro ai is the best though

[CoastalWx]

18z AI looks good though 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, metagraphica said:

 

"And so it begins."

Not overly worried about OP GFS being the ugliest model....it usually is in almost every single major event we have (major = widespread double digits totals). But if other guidance starts running the N stream out ahead, then we'll have a problem.