bristolri_wx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: So if like in 30-32 go with Kuchie but below that go off QPF? thanks for the knowledge, now I see why Kuchie has such an abtibias Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Look at both and compare. If Kuchera is higher, then expect that there will be higher than 10-1 ratios, but probably not to the extreme that KR is depicting. Then look at QPF and compare the three. CT Rain described other things to look at that are the factor. There isn’t going to be one model generated map that will accurately show snowfall in most forms. It’s why in most cases maps are made by each site/station/service. The NBM may come close as NOAA does have some formulas built into that but it’s not perfect either, as you may have seen from earlier NMB map posts about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: WTTTE Not sure our there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nam may be amped agin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: So if like in 30-32 go with Kuchie but below that go off QPF? thanks for the knowledge, now I see why Kuchie has such an abtibias Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk There isn’t a lot of science in kuchera. It’s just based on the premise that the colder the max temp in the column is, the higher the ratio will be. But there’s a point where it goes too far the other end…especially in a setup like this where the low levels are so cold. It sorta assumes normal lapse rates in a storm and not something inverted. Usually a temp of 15-20° is a sweetspot here for mid level temps in the DGZ. But if the column is sitting at 5° or colder all the way up it just keeps assuming ratios are getting higher and higher. -18°C in the growth zone is the bottom limit for dendritic crystal habit. -20°C and colder you start getting bullets that are small and accumulate more densely. Yet if you look at the estimated kuchera ratios in Canada with -30C throughout the column it tries to paint 50:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Sweet. Lets get 3” of sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nam is perilously close to a ton of sleet for most of CT/RI/SE Mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Talk about a juiced up system, 12z Nam. Bring the juice. Sling it up and in and don’t stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 MIDNIGHT Monday HRRR keeps giving. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 When nne is yanking a couple times to the nam, it comes at a cost for some of us… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, dendrite said: That isn’t 10:1 either. That’s a built in snow total the HRRR puts out I miss posted . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The NAM is very concerning. Hopefully 3k is nothing like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When nne is yanking a couple times to the nam, it comes at a cost for some of us… I just look who’s posting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When nne is yanking a couple times to the nam, it comes at a cost for some of us… I was going to say the cost is pennies but the're not made anymore so its nickels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Actually cuts the sleet off a bit south of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The NAM is very concerning. Hopefully 3k is nothing like that It's worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: The NAM is very concerning. Hopefully 3k is nothing like that Once she locks in on these… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Averaging all the models, the mix line is centering in RIGHT OVER the city. Old-school storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Pope said I will be jackpotting. He has to stop jixing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattm4242 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Again, I think we’re running into people trying to extrapolate before it even happens. It actually looks a bit south of 6z with the sleet, and the thump looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who’s horny? Should have said not 10 to 1. Kev seriously. How many big storms have they under estimated snow. It's their MO to stay conservative we don't give a shit. LFG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Instead of sniffing glue, The Nam is snorting coke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Actually cuts the sleet off a bit south of 6z Phew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 From 6z to 12z the NAM is certainly juicier with QPF but no real change in the sleet penetration. So overall a plus I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Again, I think we’re running into people trying to extrapolate before it even happens. It actually looks a bit south of 6z with the sleet, and the thump looks better Who did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Should have said not 10 to 1. Kev seriously. How many big storms have they under estimated snow. It's their MO to stay conservative we don't give a shit. LFG Well now we’ve got to stress and worry and wring hands over sleet up to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Pope said I will be jackpotting. He has to stop jixing me Whatever he blesses should be scrubbed and thrown out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Let’s keep cranking that convection in the south. Lots of latent heating being released from the ZR too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, dryslot said: Who did? There were like 5 posts it was amped. Lol. And then it was pretty much the same, maybe a bit south of the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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