“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[bristolri_wx]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

So if like in 30-32 go with Kuchie but below that go off QPF? thanks for the knowledge, now I see why Kuchie has such an abtibias

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Look at both and compare. If Kuchera is higher, then expect that there will be higher than 10-1 ratios, but probably not to the extreme that KR is depicting. Then look at QPF and compare the three. CT Rain described other things to look at that are the factor.

There isn’t going to be one model generated map that will accurately show snowfall in most forms. It’s why in most cases maps are made by each site/station/service.

The NBM may come close as NOAA does have some formulas built into that but it’s not perfect either, as you may have seen from earlier NMB map posts about this storm.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

WTTTE 

Not sure our there

[CoastalWx]

Nam may be amped agin. 

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

So if like in 30-32 go with Kuchie but below that go off QPF? thanks for the knowledge, now I see why Kuchie has such an abtibias

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There isn’t a lot of science in kuchera. It’s just based on the premise that the colder the max temp in the column is, the higher the ratio will be. But there’s a point where it goes too far the other end…especially in a setup like this where the low levels are so cold. It sorta assumes normal lapse rates in a storm and not something inverted. Usually a temp of 15-20° is a sweetspot here for mid level temps in the DGZ. But if the column is sitting at 5° or colder all the way up it just keeps assuming ratios are getting higher and higher. -18°C in the growth zone is the bottom limit for dendritic crystal habit. -20°C and colder you start getting bullets that are small and accumulate more densely. Yet if you look at the estimated kuchera ratios in Canada with -30C throughout the column it tries to paint 50:1. 

[dryslot]

It is.

[CoastalWx]

Sweet. Lets get 3” of sleet 

[CT Rain]

Nam is perilously close to a ton of sleet for most of CT/RI/SE Mass.

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Talk about a juiced up system, 12z Nam.

Bring the juice. Sling it up and in and don’t stop. 

[ROOSTA]

MIDNIGHT Monday

HRRR keeps giving. Looking good. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

When nne is yanking a couple times to the nam, it comes at a cost for some of us…

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That isn’t 10:1 either. That’s a built in snow total the HRRR puts out

I miss posted . 

[Damage In Tolland]

The NAM is very concerning. Hopefully 3k is nothing like that 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When nne is yanking a couple times to the nam, it comes at a cost for some of us…

I just look who’s posting 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When nne is yanking a couple times to the nam, it comes at a cost for some of us…

I was going to say the cost is pennies but the're not made anymore so its nickels.

[CoastalWx]

Actually cuts the sleet off a bit south of 6z

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The NAM is very concerning. Hopefully 3k is nothing like that 

It's worse.

[Johnno]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The NAM is very concerning. Hopefully 3k is nothing like that 

Once she locks in on these…

[RDRY]

Averaging all the models, the mix line is centering in RIGHT OVER the city. Old-school storm.

[MJO812]

Pope said I will be jackpotting.

He has to stop jixing me 

[mattm4242]

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Again, I think we’re running into people trying to extrapolate before it even happens. It actually looks a bit south of 6z with the sleet, and the thump looks better 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who’s horny?

Should have said not 10 to 1. Kev seriously. How many big storms have they under estimated snow. It's their MO to stay conservative we don't give a shit. LFG 

[dryslot]

Instead of sniffing glue, The Nam is snorting coke.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Actually cuts the sleet off a bit south of 6z

Phew 

[CT Rain]

From 6z to 12z the NAM is certainly juicier with QPF but no real change in the sleet penetration. So overall a plus I guess.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Again, I think we’re running into people trying to extrapolate before it even happens. It actually looks a bit south of 6z with the sleet, and the thump looks better 

Who did?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Should have said not 10 to 1. Kev seriously. How many big storms have they under estimated snow. It's their MO to stay conservative we don't give a shit. LFG 

Well now we’ve got to stress and worry and wring hands over sleet up to ORH

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pope said I will be jackpotting.

He has to stop jixing me 

Whatever he blesses should be scrubbed and thrown out. 

[dendrite]

Let’s keep cranking that convection in the south. Lots of latent heating being released from the ZR too.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, dryslot said:

Who did?

There were like 5 posts it was amped. Lol. And then it was pretty much the same, maybe a bit south of the prior run.