“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’d feel good with 12-18 forecast but not good about brushing 18”+ over anyone. I do think the south shore and Cape Ann have a pretty decent shot though with the extra OES enhancement. Still uncertain about how efficient monday is….on one hand, we’re synoptically dryslotted, but OTOH, you are literally in the DGZ sfc-700mb so it might not matter that much if you can generate some steady light precip…you could stack another 4-6” with maybe a quarter inch of QPF. 

Yep agree. 

[dryslot]

06z runs look good so far.

[amarshall]

Ok Mets put your money where your mouth is . Kalshi app.


.

[The 4 Seasons]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The NWS forecasts have sort of been a mess. Watch text not matching maps, maps changing quickly, etc. 

Seems like it's NBM gone awry. 

Looks almost like a copy and past of the NBM stuff. I knew they were going to go big when i saw the NBM yesterday. Then i read the WSW and its for 6-12 which is extremely confusing to the public when its like half the amounts the maps have. Theyve already started walking those numbers back across NYC/LI and south shore, i suspect that will continue to be the case in the next 24hrs.

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks almost like a copy and past of the NBM stuff. I knew they were going to go big when i saw the NBM yesterday. Then i read the WSW and its for 6-12 which is extremely confusing to the public when its like half the amounts the maps have. Theyve already started walking those numbers back across NYC/LI and south shore, i suspect that will continue to be the case in the next 24hrs.

It's a real mess. PHI put out a map and then annotated on it to expect less due to mixing. Like huh? 

[Chrisrotary12]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still some red flags for me to go 18-24. Things anSWFE type deal after all with no closed 700 low. Just a thump of big time WAA. You really need a good CCB to help with that. The monday stuff is light as modeled even if you add a fluff factor. Not to mention it slots aloft as well. 

This is why I’m still hesitant. I told everyone 8-12 originally. Slowly started saying around 12 now. 

[The 4 Seasons]

First call from yesterday morning, about 72 hours out. Not changing or updating this am. Likely will be splitting up into 8-12/12-16 with the 8-12 running north of NYC/LI into S/SE Coast. Question is how far north we'll end up bringing that line and if it makes it into Connecticut. For now started with wider range to account for uncertainty with track + snow/mix line, ratios and Monday's light snow. 

There will be a full SNE/Tri-State final map as well as CT.

[Chrisrotary12]

All of the NWS maps I see on website are through 7a Monday still.

[wx_observer]

20 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The NWS forecasts have sort of been a mess. Watch text not matching maps, maps changing quickly, etc. 

Seems like it's NBM gone awry. 

Yeah, it seems like they used to do a better job of putting out a consistent package update.  Now there's a lot more disconnect between forecast products / shifts, etc.  It's too bad.  I always felt like we had an above average NWS office here.  Not necessarily perfect, and at times overly cautious.  But generally solid as far as weather forecasting goes.  I still like reading their forecast discussions, though.   

[bristolri_wx]

Looks like map has been re-generated for what they are actually forecasting:
 

[tavwtby]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

First call from yesterday morning, about 72 hours out. Not changing or updating this am. Likely will be splitting up into 8-12/12-16 with the 8-12 running north of NYC/LI into S/SE Coast. Question is how far north we'll end up bringing that line and if it makes it into Connecticut. For now started with wider range to account for uncertainty with track + snow/mix line, ratios and Monday's light snow. 

There will be a full SNE/Tri-State final map as well as CT.

yeah my first call was 8-14 like last week, but then it seemed to disappear, and then went to HECS status, now back to idk, could be, could be a foot, don't get me wrong, I'll take it, but a monster measuring with yardsticks is what we all want and were hoping, didn't like the no closed off look though, we'll see, perhaps a rug pull or we end up with 2'...

[wx_observer]

4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

All of the NWS maps I see on website are through 7a Monday still.

That almost makes it more confusing, doesn't it?  If maps have a 7a cutoff, you'd think that any additional snow after that would make the winter storm watches predict storm totals higher than the maps.

[UnitedWx]

30 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

noticed ALY has taken the map away from the watch page, and the regional map doesn't match other offices maps, odd

Inter office  fights??

[tavwtby]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Inter office  fights??

yeah who knows, the text don't match the map either, we'll have a better idea tomorrow I guess, in fairness, their maps only went to Sun 7pm...and that showed probable 7", 1/10 of 13", unless it's changed by now.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, wx_observer said:

That almost makes it more confusing, doesn't it?  If maps have a 7a cutoff, you'd think that any additional snow after that would make the winter storm watches predict storm totals higher than the maps.

i was just thinking the same thing. The watches encompass the whole event, i dunno my guess is those maps imply event total regardless of the timestamp at the top.

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah my first call was 8-14 like last week, but then it seemed to disappear, and then went to HECS status, now back to idk, could be, could be a foot, don't get me wrong, I'll take it, but a monster measuring with yardsticks is what we all want and were hoping, didn't like the no closed off look though, we'll see, perhaps a rug pull or we end up with 2'...

Litchfield county? Definitely would be in the higher end of that range and will probably be in the 12-16 final call. I dont see how northern CT, esp Litchfield makes it out of this with anything less than a foot...but 8" is definitely the basement, i think the chances of a rug pull or near rug pull are virtually zero. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

First call from yesterday morning, about 72 hours out. Not changing or updating this am. Likely will be splitting up into 8-12/12-16 with the 8-12 running north of NYC/LI into S/SE Coast. Question is how far north we'll end up bringing that line and if it makes it into Connecticut. For now started with wider range to account for uncertainty with track + snow/mix line, ratios and Monday's light snow. 

There will be a full SNE/Tri-State final map as well as CT.

Tomorrow you’ll likely have 20.+ in a zone 

[wx_observer]

6 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Looks like map has been re-generated for what they are actually forecasting:
 

Better agreement with their forecast, at least.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Who do folks get so wild about the NWS maps? They’re not the governing voice and it’s well known they rip and read the HREF/ NBM

[bristolri_wx]

For those interested in the NBM, this page allows you to pick the parameter on a dashboard page, and it provides you the model blend for that particular hour's model output.  It does change depending on how close or far our the forecast range is:

https://blend.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/nbm-dashboard

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who do folks get so wild about the NWS maps? They’re not the governing voice and it’s well known they rip and read the HREF/ NBM

Oddly the NBM says I'll be getting more than the map or the text forecast.

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Tomorrow you’ll likely have 20.+ in a zone 

doubtful. but a lot change in 24 hours. Me and @Sey-Mour Snoware on the same page completely with this one. I'm sure N CT will be in the 12+ area. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Who do folks get so wild about the NWS maps? They’re not the governing voice and it’s well known they rip and read the HREF/ NBM

lmao, i always forget about that model, i said that a couple storms ago too. They love the HREF and esp the NBM. 

[dryslot]

06z Euro looks good.

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

yeah who knows, the text don't match the map either, we'll have a better idea tomorrow I guess, in fairness, their maps only went to Sun 7pm...and that showed probable 7", 1/10 of 13", unless it's changed by now.

Yeah, I always forget about the time range listed on their maps. I've always felt there's stormed up maps should be the entire event, and they should separate out time frames in the text

[moneypitmike]

I think the naps should akways reflect forecasted event totals, even after the storm begins.

[dryslot]

12-18" is more then reasonable, These SWFE's like to move around a bit the last 48hrs or so.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Decent overnight runs here

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

06z Euro looks good.

We need mire color commentary, Jeff.  

[Brewbeer]

good map

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

We need mire color commentary, Jeff.  

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, dryslot said:

 

Wow, that seems to have gotten dramatically better for Maine.