“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[ORH_wxman]

The messenger shuffles are usually in coastals. Not SWFEs. Though this is a little bit of a hybrid. More SWFE, but there’s also a crazy anomalous airmass too. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not with SWFEs usually....if there is, it doesn't work out.

This is one of the more intense SWFE (hybrids)  we have seen in quite some time.  But yeah, they don't really tic south. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The messenger shuffles are usually in coastals. Not SWFEs. Though this is a little bit of a hybrid. More SWFE, but there’s also a crazy anomalous airmass too. 

Lol, we hit send at the same time. 

[George001]

Note to self: Do NOT write off winter and check out in mid Jan, even if things don’t look great and it started slow. Peak climo in SNE is late Jan to mid Feb, historically that’s the timeframe where most of our huge storms happen. Winter doesn’t just end after mid January just because it’s a La Niña. 17-18, 21-22, hell even last year (not snowy, but our snowiest month was Feb, not December). 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Reggie in the box looking confident.

[wxsniss]

ICON!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The beauty of these hybrid type SWFE evolution's for SNE is there is rarely a big "Lucy type" rug pull.  Sure, some areas can get relatively screwed with a bit of mixing, but it's generally a solid winter event from W -> E.

[RDRY]

Don't want to get political, but this is ridiculous:

“We are expecting precipitation to begin late Saturday or early Sunday and to possibly last into Monday. The forecast is predicting anywhere from 3 to 12 inches of snow,”  Mamdani said at a press conference Thursday.

“It is entirely possible that we get less than three inches — and it is just as possible that we get over a foot,” he said.  “New Yorkers know that forecasts do not always get it right.”

 

Meanwhile:

Forecaster Ben Noll said there was roughly a 100 percent chance of 6 inches of snow, an 80 percent chance of more than a foot of snow — and a 20 percent chance of more than 18 inches in the area, according to the outlet.

 

[ariof]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Reggie in the box looking confident.

Reggie at 72h in EMA looks … not too bad.

[ScituateMA]

Hey everyone, I use to go by @HullMA

 

I lost access to the account. I will be reporting in from Scituate MA. I have some crazy pics from 2015. I saw @CoastalWxmention them not long ago. 

 

Are there any flood risks with this storm? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

ICON!

12"+ for all of SNE. 

[ariof]

Just now, ariof said:

Reggie at 72h in EMA looks … not too bad.

Reggie at 78h looks like a dry slot south of the New England Mason Dixon Line.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ariof said:

Reggie at 78h looks like a dry slot south of the New England Mason Dixon Line.

Pike or NH border?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ScituateMA said:

Hey everyone, I use to go by @HullMA

 

I lost access to the account. I will be reporting in from Scituate MA. I have some crazy pics from 2015. I saw @CoastalWxmention them not long ago. 

 

Are there any flood risks with this storm? 

No flood risks

[40/70 Benchmark]

Geez...12z EURO gave me 20"+

[SouthCoastMA]

RGEM brings the hammer before any mixing here. 

[ORH_wxman]

Reggie looked like it was redeveloping a lot of low level precip at 84h. 

[Scott Koziara]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

RGEM brings the hammer before any mixing here. 

How far inland are you?

[78Blizzard]

Looking at the 0z suite thus far, it appears that by 12Z Monday it is basically over, with a couple of inches after that.  Not the best models, but just saying.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, Scott Koziara said:

How far inland are you?

nw corner of Cape. not very

[wxsniss]

ICON spread goods a tick more north in CNE

1.2+ most of SNE, 1.3-1.6 eastern areas

Kuchera widespread 14-20

[wxsniss]

ICON has not recovered it's best look for Monday coastal development from 24 hours ago (0z Jan 22). Trough tilt was too progressive this run

[Ocean Effect]

9 minutes ago, ScituateMA said:

Hey everyone, I use to go by @HullMA

 

I lost access to the account. I will be reporting in from Scituate MA. I have some crazy pics from 2015. I saw @CoastalWxmention them not long ago. 

 

Are there any flood risks with this storm? 

Just avoid Cole Parkway, a nice mist and that place is underwater.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

ICON has not recovered it's best look for Monday coastal development from 24 hours ago (0z Jan 22). Trough tilt was too progressive this run

Yet it keeps ticking up QPF....wonder if that increase is suspect then...

[Scott Koziara]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

nw corner of Cape. not very

It makes a difference. I was in fall river/Westport today. Bare ground near Horseneck beach in Westport and 2 to 3 inches on the ground in shaded areas in Fall River. I'm expecting the under on snow totals along south coastal beaches Newport on east.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yet it keeps ticking up QPF....wonder if that increases is suspect then...

Most of it happens in 6 hours too.

[tavwtby]

many will be over a foot by 7 Sunday evening, not including any synoptic snows or ivt overnight into Monday, this gon be fun!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Speed of meaningful precipitation exit is still a cap on 20+ totals but parts of E MA have a shot.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just hoping we don’t get another north trend. Can’t really handle another down here.

[wxsniss]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yet it keeps ticking up QPF....wonder if that increases is suspect then...

I think the isoentropic lift portion is slightly better (despite less cyclogen-CCB Monday) hence the relatively stable / slightly increased in CNE QPF in this run

But the coastal portion of the storm... 0z last night has the best depiction of coastal portion I could find, mini CCB into Tuesday 6z... that portion of the storm I haven't seen recovered yet, but there are varying hints of it across the models. Need the energy to round trough and interact sooner