“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[metagraphica]

It's gonna snow.

[dryslot]

Did get a cold weather advisory though for Saturday.

[Typhoon Tip]

Of course ... ( haha ) come to think about it that's all based upon greed, anyway. LOL

I mean, Jebus. The isentropic snows alone are fairly high probability for a successful forecast and we're talking a major snow event from that, already.  

[moneypitmike]

It appears that the northward trending has halted.  At least for now.  Probably any adjustments from now on will be minor.

[EastonSN+]

AI takes longer to transfer/remove the primary.

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

[Masswx]

Euro looks good

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z Euro still a big hit, I don't know why its doing this though, But for the last few days, When it gets to hr84, It jumps to hr96 or so/

It's the super computer halting to recompute, utilizing the doctoring/fix by the model operators.

( )

[dryslot]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's the super computer halting to recompute the doctoring/fix by the model operators.

( )

Ha, Yeah, Its only been the last few cycles when they delayed the run 2 days ago.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Masswx said:

Euro looks good

Dad?

[Masswx]

Funny how Im more active in forum then dad even when Im in school and not allowed to have my phone (doesn’t stop me) lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Masswx said:

Funny how Im more active in forum then dad even when Im in school and not allowed to have my phone (doesn’t stop me) lol

lol.. get craaazzyyy!

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Funny how Im more active in forum then dad even when Im in school and not allowed to have my phone (doesn’t stop me) lol

grounded! 

[mahk_webstah]

26 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

12z AIFS crushes and continues to hint at lingering coastal through Monday evening

Seems the GFSAI has a deeper and closer coastal low than the euro AI

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

grounded! 

The worst punishment for a snow weenie would be no phone or computer and no looking out the window

[ariof]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm thinking that'll get more ironed out by the near terms, like <--48 hours... 

There is a ton of UVM associated with the initial ...stunningly powerful isentropic explosion moving overhead with that deep south source forced over this artic dome we're about to slab into place.  And the models are developing a low pressure underneath all the rising motion as they should. 

But there's not a ton of actual Q-G forcing ( diffiuence mechanical/synoptic lift) so we end up with the weak low.... The problem is transitioning from that to then actually having Q-G forcing them moving into the region...It's sort of overlapping the isentropic lift region moving off...  verrrrrry complex in there as the situation relays from being one mechanism, to a different kind associated with cyclogen. Timing being key ... lending to having enough for the 2nd.  The problem with the latter is that cyclogen needs the dynamics ( moisture and instability), which the leading stuff is escaping with the food, seaward ... kind of serving a plate not sufficient enough to feed the second circumstance.   

However, as we get closer, these two might overlap yet more... ie, consolidate... ?  questions that may be better answered in the 48 hour window.  How much or in time..  The more the consolidation the bigger the 2nd low.  Hell ... even 25% doesn't reduce the lead but will add a ton to the 2nd.  

Wasn't the December 2020 storm a weak low setup that put that insane fronto band over CNE (and then all evaporated with one of the Grinchiest Grinches a few days later)? That setup was different, of course, without the huge storm impacting the SE, and came more up the coast, but might this have some kind of meso front that dumps 30" of fluff somewhere?

[DomNH]

Man that EC AI is a total weenie solution. Days and days and over a foot for all. 

[andyhb]

12z Euro essentially stalls the coastal as the primary ascent from the jet results in redevelopment closer to the coast, long period of high ratio fluff results and gets the entire region above 1" QPF/15" on Kuchera.

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One of the luxuries of having a crazy frigid antecedent airmass is small moves don’t really change anything all that much. We can handle some decent wiggle room with these temp profiles. 

I think my forecast has it around four or 5° on Sunday night during the heaviest snow. Don’t think I’ve seen that since maybe 2013 or 14.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO has been hinting at a 1/7/24 type band placement...not that it screws anyone else, so don't throw laptops at me.

[MuddyWx]

outputs have been really consistent the past couple of cycles

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think my forecast has it around four or 5° on Sunday night during the heaviest snow. Don’t think I’ve seen that since maybe 2013 or 14.

P&C has Snow, Low 3°F sunday night..............

[EastonSN+]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

AIFS trend 

Ai trend

[mahk_webstah]

I wish the bulk of this wasn’t falling overnight

[ORH_wxman]

Euro was very good for trying to squeeze out a few inches later Monday into Monday night. Keeps that low level circulation south of us. 

[Henry's Weather]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think my forecast has it around four or 5° on Sunday night during the heaviest snow. Don’t think I’ve seen that since maybe 2013 or 14.

Probably January 1st, 2014

[ineedsnow]

12zEPS starts between 7am and 10am Sunday and ends Tuesday morning

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Funny how Im more active in forum then dad even when Im in school and not allowed to have my phone (doesn’t stop me) lol

Phone gone 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, andyhb said:

12z Euro essentially stalls the coastal as the primary ascent from the jet results in redevelopment closer to the coast, long period of high ratio fluff results and gets the entire region above 1" QPF/15" on Kuchera.

wtf... I was just describing the differences between the lead isentropic snow not having that, to Wxsniss, and how the 2nd low in some of the guidance was in wait of the the Q-G forcing arriving later  - can it be in time to catch that before it leaves, concept.

Then is shows up  ...kind of.