January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Duca892]

18 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

CMC drives the primary up to Erie, that's why. Scranton will flip to IP if that's the case. With the level of cold and the banana high in place, I would be surprised but it isn't unprecedented. The CMC solution honestly reminds me of a less juiced VD 2007.

that would be gross, remember that sleetfest even in Bethlehem well 

[ChescoWx]

Our best storms always have some non-snow in the mix.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Anyone smarter than me care to extrapolate the 84hr NAM? Looks like it's ejecting the Baja low, but that might be me with weenie goggles on 

I fed the 84hr data into Gemini and it gave me a 3000 word diatribe that essentially said SE PA is a sleetfest if we extrapolation the NAM with New England getting the golden shovel .

[JTA66]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I fed the 84hr data into Gemini and it gave me a 3000 word diatribe that essentially said SE PA is a sleetfest if we extrapolation the NAM with New England getting the golden shovel .

I'll wait for the CRAS to get in range.

[coastal front]

Let’s hope we are now seeing the northern most envelope of possible solutions and can shift H5 slightly south while just upping the precip when mesos are in range. I’m not worried about where we are at right now but more so if it keeps trending in the more amped direction. Todays gonna be a long day lol


.

[MGorse]

It is going to be a long rest of the week! 

[Eskimo Joe]

20 minutes ago, MGorse said:

It is going to be a long rest of the week! 

No pressure, just the hopes and dreams of every Delaware Valley snow weenie resting on your shoulders.

[No Snow Flo]

1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

Bro you've posted it multiple times now, we get it, you're hoping for a miss so that your plans aren't ruined. This is a snow board though so keep it to yourself honestly. We don't want those bad vibes.

Bro, I hope that was a sarcastic, joking post because I thought this was a forecast board not a personal wishcast board for you. I guarantee his plans won't be the only ones ruined as this thing comes together. If not, go put your big boy snow pants on and get over the fact that others may have a different take on the impact of the weather. Funny how the Pro's in these boards don't mention "bade vibes" in their opinions, what's that tell you? 

[anthonyweather]

ill take the next 20-30" storm GFS advertises next weekend too!

[RedSky]

The accordion snowman guy on the New England side had a nuke meltdown over this storm earlier not wanting it to snow

 

[RedSky]

They got the euro fixed it's running 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12z euro is another bomb for the area. Euro AI also in line with the op and is a massive hit.

[RedSky]

Euro held the line from 6z a good sign

 

[Violentweatherfan]

NYC forum posted this 

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

12z euro is another bomb for the area. Euro AI also in line with the op and is a massive hit.

Yup. When the euro AI locks in, inside 5 days it's been deadly 

[rcostell]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Our best storms always have some non-snow in the mix.

Usually- but not Always.  Our #1 storm- Jan. 1996 had no taint at PHL.  (or in nearby western NJ). 

[Duca892]

9 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

NYC forum posted this 

Know it isn't a forecast... but that has to be one of the widest swaths of 12-18in that i have ever seen 

[The Iceman]

52 minutes ago, No Snow Flo said:

Bro, I hope that was a sarcastic, joking post because I thought this was a forecast board not a personal wishcast board for you. I guarantee his plans won't be the only ones ruined as this thing comes together. If not, go put your big boy snow pants on and get over the fact that others may have a different take on the impact of the weather. Funny how the Pro's in these boards don't mention "bade vibes" in their opinions, what's that tell you? 

Who are you? Btw “I hope it misses so it doesn’t ruin my plans” isn’t a forecast. I won’t derail the thread further though on some clueless troll. 

[Duca892]

Stolen from our friends on the MA Forum. Believe it is done at this point

 

[anthonyweather]

mixing line really creeping on euro too

 

[CoolHandMike]

Yikes. And my work is still planning on waiting until the last minute Sunday to decide if we're going to be working outside on Monday.

OT, but can anyone please clue me in as to what a "FOLKS" is? I keep seeing it in the MA forum. (I swear every time we all start tracking an event like this they just keep making up new acronyms...)

[JTA66]

21 minutes ago, rcostell said:

Usually- but not Always.  Our #1 storm- Jan. 1996 had no taint at PHL.  (or in nearby western NJ). 

That's another reason '96 is #1 in my book -- no taint! Even PDII had a period of IP.

Now, back to the drool-worthy maps...

[LVblizzard]

Canadian is really the only 12z model that gets a prolonged period of sleet north of I-95. Euro and UKMET push it a little past Philly but it’s when the bulk of the precip is already done.

[JTA66]

Stolen from a red tagger in the MA forum...

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago"

[Kevin Reilly]

11 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Yikes. And my work is still planning on waiting until the last minute Sunday to decide if we're going to be working outside on Monday.

OT, but can anyone please clue me in as to what a "FOLKS" is? I keep seeing it in the MA forum. (I swear every time we all start tracking an event like this they just keep making up new acronyms...)

“Folks” is what Randy Stormtracker Admin would call a beat down 15-20”+ snow event.  Glad I could help!

Pretty entertaining actually!

[NJHurricane]

1 hour ago, MGorse said:

It is going to be a long rest of the week! 

I could swear this week has already been a month.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Canadian is really the only 12z model that gets a prolonged period of sleet north of I-95. Euro and UKMET push it a little past Philly but it’s when the bulk of the precip is already done.

I think this is the typical as the precip tapers lightens up it no longer can pull the cold air through the column and resulting in a little Frz snizzle pellets then cold air crashes back down for another period of snow 1-2” typical in lot of our 12”+ storms. 

[Mikeymac5306]

5 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

“Folks” is what Randy Stormtracker Admin would call a beat down 15-20”+ snow event.  Glad I could help!

Pretty entertaining actually!

Good peeps down there in that form with some pretty reliable info. Entertaining as well. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Stolen from a red tagger in the MA forum...

I had lunch with Louis Uccellini about an hour ago. He's very concerned about a westward trend going forward. Especially with an 850 low going into the OV. He's not convinced (at all) that the current evolution will hold. 

"I'd rather be in Chicago"

Spoken from the Godfather of KU storms, the literal U in KU, the man who co-authored the NE US snowstorm "bible". I am preparing now for the massive letdown over the next 90 hrs. 

[CoolHandMike]

9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

“Folks” is what Randy Stormtracker Admin would call a beat down 15-20”+ snow event.  Glad I could help!

Pretty entertaining actually!

Thanks! So it's not an acronym for anything?