Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[bringmesnow1]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It has actually adjusted steadily north with both primary and secondary lows for several cycles in a row. I see no reason why it won't continue to do so.

This. 

Clear trend with the best snows moving N and W with each of the last 4 model runs.

It's caving, as is tradition.

[eduggs]

RGEM and NAM are 10-12 hours of snow before a flip to sleet. There could be a few hours of heavy snow. RGEM begins transitioning in NYC by around 3pm with the NAM a few hours later. 

[SACRUS]

 

The Euro is running

 

[Prue11]

33 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Closing in on 48 hours until go time for some of us. Here's my initial dartboard throw. Never underestimate the jacuzzi that is the Atlantic, even if the buoys are only reading 40. 12 hours of ENE wind, it's going to bring some rain to the coast. Feel free to throw some Oscar Meyers.

Not gonna lie I’m gonna be disappointed if I get under 10”

[Nibor]

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[SACRUS]

[DreamBig]

Has us mixing even earlier 

[Nibor]

Just now, DreamBig said:

Has us mixing even earlier 

It's more or less in line with 18z

[TriPol]

I think the NWS really needs to adjust the forecast. Every single model shows mixing. The EURO shows freezing rain which is a lot worse than sleet.

[winterwx21]

Euro very aggressive in bringing in the sleet Sunday afternoon. Still a good thump before then, but it cut back snow amounts compared to the 12z run. The trends are not good with the mid level warming. Thank goodness we have such an extreme arctic airmass in place or else this event would fall apart. 

[Prue11]

Who’s to say it won’t trend back in our favor. The European model

hasnt been great the last few stoms

either 

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I think the NWS really needs to adjust the forecast. Every single model shows mixing. The EURO shows freezing rain which is a lot worse than sleet.

They mentioned they may need to shave off 3 to 6 from their forecast

[Snowlover11]

9 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Who’s to say it won’t trend back in our favor. The European model

hasnt been great the last few stoms

either 

The trend hasnt been our friend for the last day.

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

Who’s to say it won’t trend back in our favor. The European model

hasnt been great the last few stoms

either 

Happy to be convinced otherwise, but while I've seen storms trend consistently north, and less frequently storms trend consistently south, have we seen many storms trend consistently in one direction in all the major models 96-72 hours out, then suddenly and significantly reverse course?  I assume that we don't see that much because as we get closer and closer to the event, the more likely the models are to be accurate?

[eduggs]

23 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I think the NWS really needs to adjust the forecast. Every single model shows mixing. The EURO shows freezing rain which is a lot worse than sleet.

Ptype isn't accurately depicted for the Euro on Pivotal. It's a 3rd party vendor issue not a model issue. Most of what is shown as ZR is actually IP.

[nycwinter]

trends can easily change 24 hours before a event we seen that happen many times in the past..

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

The trend hasnt been our friend for the last day.

Ugh I don't want an ice storm 

[nycwinter]

 a snow and sleet storm will be worse for people in  cars and walking then snow alone..

[Snowlover11]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ugh I don't want an ice storm 

Imo I dont see you flipping to prolonged ZR. Sleet? Sure but thats after 6-8”

[KeithB]

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

We can hope to dry slot at the end

We never hope to dry slot 

[weatherpruf]

23 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Imo I dont see you flipping to prolonged ZR. Sleet? Sure but thats after 6-8”

From storm of the century in the media to 6-8… so when do we all end with a March 2017 situation….im never comfortable when sleet is on the table.

[TriPol]

I guess with this storm dumping sleet and freezing rain all over the country, it's just decided that it's going to do the same thing here. Fun times.

[Snowlover11]

Trust me I want the highest totals out of anybody lol, but reality is we have seen a warming trend, again we could be sitting here tomorrow night happier than a pig in shit, it could get worse as well. Hopefully we get the first rather than the latter. See you guys for 6z.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

I think the NWS really needs to adjust the forecast. Every single model shows mixing. The EURO shows freezing rain which is a lot worse than sleet.

Oh they will, but the damage has been done. In the past they have dug in and said so it was mostly sleet so what… see March 2017. At least this time we will go in knowing not to expect big snows. This crap will not be easy to clean and the ERs are gonna be busy. The biggest danger here is going to be for middle aged men. 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 hours ago, TJW014 said:

Closing in on 48 hours until go time for some of us. Here's my initial dartboard throw. Never underestimate the jacuzzi that is the Atlantic, even if the buoys are only reading 40. 12 hours of ENE wind, it's going to bring some rain to the coast. Feel free to throw some Oscar Meyers.

This is pretty reasonable.

[RU848789]

DT/WxRisk's first guess map is the best one I've seen and I'd say I'm very aligned with it, as it has most of CNJ and 95 from Philly to NYC in the 8-12" of snow swath and noting that much of that area would also be receiving sleet; he doesn't specify how much sleet, but it's part of the 8-12" of "snow".  I also like his 12-18" area with no sleet beginning around 78, which is a good guess. I might have his light blue area with a changeover to sleet/ZR all the way up to 78, though.  I know he's a polarizing figure, but I like his work sometimes. 

The new NWS maps and discussion aren't up yet, but they did update their winter storm watches, below, which essentially have 12-17" of snow (and some sleet and up to 0.1" of ZR) for the counties N of 276/195 in PA/NJ (and Ocean), while they have 8-15" of snow and sleet with up to 0.25" of freezing rain for the counties S of 276/195 in SE PA/SNJ and DE. This is more realistic and in-line with my post above on DT's forecast.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
127 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen
Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern
Burlington-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations between 8 and 15 inches and ice accumulations up to
one quarter of an inch possible.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
127 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western
Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
accumulations between 12 and 17 inches and ice accumulations
around one tenth of an inch possible.

[RU848789]

Was out at poker night but am now caught up and would love for the GFS or AIFS/AIGFS to be right and give most of CNJ and the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and the coast and my house very little sleet/ZR, but we've seen too many times when the WAA is undermodeled and with several other models showing 25-40% of the QPF falling as sleet, mostly, with a bit of ZR it seems quite possible we'll at least get 33% as sleet/ZR. Here's some thoughts for how to look at that. I still think mets need to find a way to report total frozen mass in mixed precip events as frozen mass is much better correlated to impacts than simple depth. I have to say this at least once a day, lol.  

Seeing QPFs of 0.9-1.5" across the models, if I take 1.2" as the QPF and have 66% of it be snow, that's 0.8" as snow and 0.4" as sleet/ZR, so let's say that's 0.3" as sleet and 0.1" as ZR. At 13:1 SLR (the rough ratio seen on the NBM through 0Z Monday when many models switch to sleet), the 0.8" QPF as snow is 10.4" of 13:1 snow, the 0.3" of QPF as sleet is 0.9" of sleet for a depth of 11.3" and the 0.1" of QPF as ZR has no depth as it's just absorbed into the snow/sleet pack although some compaction and freezing will occur, especially near the top

Bottom line this could end up having 10" of depth after compaction containing 1.2" of QPF which has a top several inches being frozen solid with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. This is a friggin' mess to drive in, walk on, plow, shovel, etc., and likely worse than dealing with that same 1.2" QPF of frozen mass as pure 15:1 snow or 18" of depth. Won't be nearly as pretty, but will be as or more impactful.
And if there's more like 50% of the 1.2" QPF as snow (7.8" at 13:1) and 50% of the QPF as sleet and no ZR (2" of sleet at 3:1), that's 9.8" of depth and keep in mind that sleet melts much more slowly than snow as it has a far lower exposed surface area per unit volume.