Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow 1/23 - 1/25

[TriPol]

The primary signal this upcoming weekend is for potentially record-breaking cold driven by a deep, anomalous trough settling over the region.

Guid2-meter temperatures solidly in the single digits, with readings near 5°F to around 11°F across much of the city and immediate suburbs at 12z Sunday. That places the region well below climatological norms and indicates a deeply entrenched Arctic air mass rather than transient radiational cooling. Inland locations just north and west of the city are even colder, reinforcing a strong low-level cold pool draining southward.

The coastal influence is visible but limited. While the nearby ocean slightly moderates temperatures, it is not enough to prevent NYC from remaining firmly in the freezer. The tight temperature gradient just offshore highlights how marginal changes in low-level flow could matter, but as depicted here, the city remains locked into dangerously cold conditions that would be capable of challenging daily record lows and producing dangerously low wind chills if even modest winds persist.

Cold air is firmly locked in, so any precipitation shown here would fall as snow for the NYC area. With a deep Arctic air mass in place, there are no thermal concerns. The EC-AIFS total QPF signal of roughly 2–4 inches liquid over the period would translate efficiently to snowfall, potentially with higher-than-normal ratios given the cold column. Even lighter events could accumulate quickly in this regime.

The larger takeaway is that this looks like a sustained cold, active pattern rather than a single storm threat. Storm tracks favoring the coast with NYC near the western edge of the precipitation shield suggest multiple chances for accumulating snow. Individual event details will matter, but precipitation type is not in question. In this setup, the cold does the heavy lifting; the only variables left are track, timing, and frequency.

With extremely cold temperatures in place, snowfall efficiency becomes a major factor. In an Arctic air mass like this, snow-to-liquid ratios can easily exceed climatological averages, meaning even modest liquid amounts translate into greater snowfall depth. The ECMWF Kuchera output already reflects enhanced ratios, but if the cold column deepens further or dendritic growth is maximized, actual ratios could run higher than modeled.

For NYC, that means the depicted ~6 inches is not a hard ceiling. In a very cold, well-saturated column, snowflakes tend to be fluffier and accumulate more efficiently, especially if rates increase under banding. In this setup, depth is driven less by raw QPF and more by how effectively the atmosphere converts that moisture into snow, and extreme cold tilts that equation in favor of higher totals.

 

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

bro u jinxed us delete it

[Franklin0529]

29 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bro u jinxed us delete it

Weather don't care about making a storm thread lol 

[NEG NAO]

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Only hazards cold ??

[TJW014]

Nice write-up. We track. Best pattern we've had in years. Let's cash in on one. 

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Nice write-up. We track. Best pattern we've had in years. Let's cash in on one. 

We're due down the shore man. I'm up in coastal Monmouth county an it's been terrible the last couple years

[RU848789]

33 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Weather don't care about making a storm thread lol 

Exactly.  Anyone who claims to be a scientist of any kind can't possibly believe in jinxes - how one ties one's shoes, wears a cap or posts on an internet weather forum has no bearing on the outcome of any event.  It's just dumb.  

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

The primary signal this upcoming weekend is for potentially record-breaking cold driven by a deep, anomalous trough settling over the region.

Guid2-meter temperatures solidly in the single digits, with readings near 5°F to around 11°F across much of the city and immediate suburbs at 12z Sunday. That places the region well below climatological norms and indicates a deeply entrenched Arctic air mass rather than transient radiational cooling. Inland locations just north and west of the city are even colder, reinforcing a strong low-level cold pool draining southward.

The coastal influence is visible but limited. While the nearby ocean slightly moderates temperatures, it is not enough to prevent NYC from remaining firmly in the freezer. The tight temperature gradient just offshore highlights how marginal changes in low-level flow could matter, but as depicted here, the city remains locked into dangerously cold conditions that would be capable of challenging daily record lows and producing dangerously low wind chills if even modest winds persist.

Cold air is firmly locked in, so any precipitation shown here would fall as snow for the NYC area. With a deep Arctic air mass in place, there are no thermal concerns. The EC-AIFS total QPF signal of roughly 2–4 inches liquid over the period would translate efficiently to snowfall, potentially with higher-than-normal ratios given the cold column. Even lighter events could accumulate quickly in this regime.

The larger takeaway is that this looks like a sustained cold, active pattern rather than a single storm threat. Storm tracks favoring the coast with NYC near the western edge of the precipitation shield suggest multiple chances for accumulating snow. Individual event details will matter, but precipitation type is not in question. In this setup, the cold does the heavy lifting; the only variables left are track, timing, and frequency.

With extremely cold temperatures in place, snowfall efficiency becomes a major factor. In an Arctic air mass like this, snow-to-liquid ratios can easily exceed climatological averages, meaning even modest liquid amounts translate into greater snowfall depth. The ECMWF Kuchera output already reflects enhanced ratios, but if the cold column deepens further or dendritic growth is maximized, actual ratios could run higher than modeled.

For NYC, that means the depicted ~6 inches is not a hard ceiling. In a very cold, well-saturated column, snowflakes tend to be fluffier and accumulate more efficiently, especially if rates increase under banding. In this setup, depth is driven less by raw QPF and more by how effectively the atmosphere converts that moisture into snow, and extreme cold tilts that equation in favor of higher totals.

 

 

 

looks like the storm that shall not be named.....2/6/2010. this is not quite as massive though.

[Big Jims Videos]

hoping this is the real deal and not a "premature evaluation."

[Nibor]

Tomer is always a good read:

 

 

 

[North and West]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

The primary signal this upcoming weekend is for potentially record-breaking cold driven by a deep, anomalous trough settling over the region.

Guid2-meter temperatures solidly in the single digits, with readings near 5°F to around 11°F across much of the city and immediate suburbs at 12z Sunday. That places the region well below climatological norms and indicates a deeply entrenched Arctic air mass rather than transient radiational cooling. Inland locations just north and west of the city are even colder, reinforcing a strong low-level cold pool draining southward.

The coastal influence is visible but limited. While the nearby ocean slightly moderates temperatures, it is not enough to prevent NYC from remaining firmly in the freezer. The tight temperature gradient just offshore highlights how marginal changes in low-level flow could matter, but as depicted here, the city remains locked into dangerously cold conditions that would be capable of challenging daily record lows and producing dangerously low wind chills if even modest winds persist.

Cold air is firmly locked in, so any precipitation shown here would fall as snow for the NYC area. With a deep Arctic air mass in place, there are no thermal concerns. The EC-AIFS total QPF signal of roughly 2–4 inches liquid over the period would translate efficiently to snowfall, potentially with higher-than-normal ratios given the cold column. Even lighter events could accumulate quickly in this regime.

The larger takeaway is that this looks like a sustained cold, active pattern rather than a single storm threat. Storm tracks favoring the coast with NYC near the western edge of the precipitation shield suggest multiple chances for accumulating snow. Individual event details will matter, but precipitation type is not in question. In this setup, the cold does the heavy lifting; the only variables left are track, timing, and frequency.

With extremely cold temperatures in place, snowfall efficiency becomes a major factor. In an Arctic air mass like this, snow-to-liquid ratios can easily exceed climatological averages, meaning even modest liquid amounts translate into greater snowfall depth. The ECMWF Kuchera output already reflects enhanced ratios, but if the cold column deepens further or dendritic growth is maximized, actual ratios could run higher than modeled.

For NYC, that means the depicted ~6 inches is not a hard ceiling. In a very cold, well-saturated column, snowflakes tend to be fluffier and accumulate more efficiently, especially if rates increase under banding. In this setup, depth is driven less by raw QPF and more by how effectively the atmosphere converts that moisture into snow, and extreme cold tilts that equation in favor of higher totals.

 

 

 

I didn't want to, but I feel like, again, it's going to be more than four hours.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bro u jinxed us delete it

It's not starting a thread early that makes it a problem. It's how it's presented.
 

No hysteria here, or exaggerated headlines from a scenario that may have backing from just one or two operational model runs. This is a logical well thought out presentation of what could be next weekend. More emphasis on the cold which seems high probability and less on the snow which at this time is very uncertain. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I feel it, we are gonna have flip flops this week and ups and downs and anxiety. It’s too early. It’s gonna be a loooong week 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I feel it, we are gonna have flip flops this week and ups and downs and anxiety. It’s too early. It’s gonna be a loooong week 

Ratios on the Northern fringe could be as high as 20:1 but these storms always hit a brick wall at some point. Hopefully that brick wall is North of I-84.

[wxman]

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I feel it, we are gonna have flip flops this week and ups and downs and anxiety. It’s too early. It’s gonna be a loooong week 

Has it ever been otherwise?  That's a rare bird indeed.