Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[mob1]

Dry slot in southern Jersey filling in some. Over 7" here and snowing nicely (though somewhat lighter than before and it looks like we're in a bit of a subsidence zone but should get out of it pretty soon). 

[steve392]

Near whiteout conditions in ridgefield park.  Down is doing a great job clearing roads. Down to blacktop. 

[winterwarlock]

flipped to sleet villanova pa

[NorthShoreWx]

48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That would be huge. More importantly does it move more northeast or NNE that was modeled. Another factor.

Need the new low to deepen more than the primary (soon) and for the primary to open up.  Still lots of S-SW flow in the mid levels.  That and stray a little east of the forecast like you said.  

So far, the modeling is too slow and a little too west with the secondary, but stranger things have happened.

[jm1220]

HRRR again showing sleet coming into the area but then being fought/pushed back for a while. This idea will either be the hero of the day or fall flat on its face. 

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

HRRR again showing sleet coming into the area but then being fought/pushed back for a while. This idea will either be the hero of the day or fall flat on its face. 

RAP which brings the sleet line into nyc Long Island quicker is still another 5-7 inches 

16z hrr rolling and it’s still showing snow along the south shore at 23z

[nycsnow]

Hrrr shows another 7-11 inches central nj into sne before the mix line crosses over Long Island 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

RAP which brings the sleet line into nyc Long Island quicker is still another 5-7 inches 

16z hrr rolling and it’s still showing snow along the south shore at 23z

I'm not buying that with how fast it's advancing, I think pings start in Staten Island and the Rockaways in an hour or so but question is does it charge right in or hit snags/retreat for a time. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Hrrr shows another 7-11 inches central nj into sne before the mix line crosses over Long Island 

Its on crack

[ILoveWinter]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Its on crack

Yea agree, its as if it's not seeing the sleet at all 

[mgerb]

FWIW, HRRR hr 1 (12 PM) is too far south with the sleet line, as it appears to be approaching southern Mercer/Middlesex in NJ (based on CC and mPING). Around 7" so far here, so might be able to pull off low-end double digits with sleet included. But also suspect there will be some compaction with the sleet on top. 

[SACRUS]

 

Heavy rates counter acting the sleet progression here in Monroe, CNJ

 

[RKO36]

6.6 inches in Edison..still coming down beautifully...all be it a tiny bit wetter.

[Joerock]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

5” and counting here 

Yep..here in Marine Park (South Brooklyn) i would say i got 6 inches and its coming down at a big clip

[Wannabehippie]

HRRR is drunk. It needs to go home. People already have totals over what it is predicting for the entire storm.

 

[snywx]

16z HRRR is showing an additional 14-16" up here lol.. Wild stuff 

[Euripides]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Heavy rates counter acting the sleet progression here in Monroe, CNJ

Heavy snow in South Old Bridge in Middlesex so still holding off that sleet line for now.

Monmouth County is just a few lights south of me.

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, Joerock said:

Yep..here in Marine Park (South Brooklyn) i would say i got 6 inches and its coming down at a big clip

Yeah it’s snowing over 1” per hour I would say its close to 7” now

[mgerb]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Heavy rates counter acting the sleet progression here in Monroe, CNJ

 

What's your mix? Some snow, some sleet? Oddly, there's little signal on KDIX base reflectivity (or the other tilts), but KDOX shows it well. 

[winterwarlock]

the hrrr is off on the sleet...its already sleeting in Hamilton NJ

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, mgerb said:

What's your mix? Some snow, some sleet? Oddly, there's little signal on KDIX base reflectivity, but KDOX shows it well. 

Yea that’s what I wanna know, I see some reports are it’s mostly snow in places with couple of pellets mixed in so I assume you’ll still accumulate well 

[Wannabehippie]

The ratios have to be off the wall with how cold it is at all levels right now.

[psv88]

Euro still going with a foot plus at the the latitude of the city 

[SACRUS]

 

more to show extent of precip not the mix line

 

[SACRUS]

3 minutes ago, mgerb said:

What's your mix? Some snow, some sleet? Oddly, there's little signal on KDIX base reflectivity (or the other tilts), but KDOX shows it well. 

85/90% snow

[nycsnow]

Looks like sleet line slowing down last few frames south of Middletown 

[psv88]

Bands east of the city are building well ahead of mix line. As most of the city and island are approaching 6”, I think the low end of the warning (8”) verifies and likely 10” before the flip. With 1-2” of sleet, that’s your 12”

[the_other_guy]

1. Never discount the HRRR.

2. You guys have been searching for sleet to ruin a snowstorm since Thursday.

Meanwhile closing in on 7 inches…and 12F

 

[mgerb]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

85/90% snow

Kickass. Keep it coming. Can't believe it's still 11 deg (edit: now 12 deg). 

[SACRUS]