Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[wxman]

6" down.  Heavy snow.  9 degrees.

[wxman]

CC radar looks like the parting of the red sea down in far south jersey lol

[TriPol]

Too early to score GFS for the coup against all the other models... 

[Euripides]

20 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Coastal forming...

Is the coastal forming a little further south than modeled?

[nycsnow]

staten island about to hit 6 inches… NAM had that as the total lol

[WestBabylonWeather]

7 minutes ago, wxman said:

CC radar looks like the parting of the red sea down in far south jersey lol

I was just looking at that. It split 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

staten island about to hit 6 inches… NAM had that as the total lol

See this is another factor. I admit I am overly focused on the warm tongue, however if the rates overperform it will compensate.

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

staten island about to hit 6 inches… NAM had that as the total lol

The NAM has had about 0.5" QPF as snow for Staten Island for several cycles. I'm not sure how much melted liquid has fallen there. It might not end up so far off when the mix begins. With good ratios to begin that could easily end up as 8" of snow.

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Too early to score GFS for the coup against all the other models... 

The GFS clearly performed terribly. If shifted significantly northward for 8 cycles in a row to catch up to the rest of guidance. DCA is not getting 18" of snow. They already flipped.

[eduggs]

The mid-level warm surge is setting up through SEPA progged to head towards north central NJ. NYC east should be a little cooler or later to warm. The latest few HRRR runs are really trying to push the sleet line back south after 22z or so. Looks really close for Passaic Co. to southern Westchester.

[RU848789]

As of 10:30 am, snowing legitimately heavily (1/4 mile visibility) with a bit larger dendrites and we now have 5.2" otg (1.2" last hour) at 13F (10F dewpoint). Just went for a Jeb Walk and took a few pics - gorgeous out there.

 

[EastonSN+]

To monitor:

Speed of warm tongue.

Snowfall rates.

How much snow mixes with the sleet. You can accumulate at a 50/50 rate, albeit will be slow. Again March 2017 had 7.5 inches before Thundersleet. A couple hours later 9.5 inches!!

So accumulation may not just stop when the mix starts.

[eduggs]

You can clearly see the arc of the warm nose on radar with sleet in SEPA with snow to the east in NJ down to almost Cape May. 

[Astoriaweather]

It’s going to be incredibly nasty this evening. https://x.com/nwspittsburgh/status/2015447318368075930?s=46&t=vSc28c4jRnGy3UkOwCbIQQ

[MJO812]

Wow heavy snow here

[wkd]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KTTN&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Thanks

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

You can clearly see the arc of the warm nose on radar with sleet in SEPA with snow to the east in NJ down to almost Cape May. 

Still snowing all the way down in wildwood 

[nycsnow]

Absolutely puking snow 

[Neblizzard]

Snowing 2 inches per hour in Union County NJ.  In addition the wind is starting to pick up .  Nice storm !

[WestBabylonWeather]

It’s not really moving north on the Jersey side 

[Intensewind002]

Measured about 3" around half an hour ago in Lindenhurst. Here's to another 10!!! 

[BoulderWX]

5.25” as of 11am; 1.25” in the last hour. Moderate to heavy snow continues. 

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It’s not really moving north on the Jersey side 

well to be fair modelling didnt have it moving further into NJ til 1

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It’s not really moving north on the Jersey side 

It has made it to sw jersey though. Reports of flip to sleet

[Stormlover74]

Also some drier air down there so maybe that explains the flip and they go back if rates improve?

[Stormlover74]

Slightly colder over ne nj. Still snowing at 3pm. We'll see

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It’s not really moving north on the Jersey side 

It will come up from that spot by Philadelphia moving Northeast. Focus on that spot rather than south Jersey.

[nycsnow]

Check out okx the ocean effect bands moving opposite direction of the storm bands pretty cool 

[Neblizzard]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

well to be fair modelling didnt have it moving further into NJ til 1

Goldberg on channel 7 said the mixing line may be delayed till 4pm now. 

[Jt17]

Slightly colder over ne nj. Still snowing at 3pm. We'll see

If the city can get to 4 PM all snow would be epic


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