Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[jm1220]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

Not super likely but could happen if they get better banding.

The resolution on the GFS sucks so it shows these weird blotches on the snowmaps. But I think from here down to DC are basically in the same boat. NYC probably does a couple to few inches better than DC because of closeness to the high. 

[DreamBig]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS increased totals even though had more sleet due to heavier snow initially.

Lol gives Boston almost double the RDPS, and NYC almost half. Things are still all over the place

[nycsnow]

Extended RAP rolling and it’s continuing what it was doing at 02z the mix line touches nyc and north shore and drops south 

 

[EastonSN+]

GDPS and I am off.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, DreamBig said:

Lol gives Boston almost double the RDPS, and NYC almost half. Things are still all over the place

SWFE usually don't produce 2 feet type totals I don't think but this one is very cold and very juiced.

[jm1220]

Just now, DreamBig said:

Lol gives Boston almost double the RDPS, and NY almost half. Things are still all over the place

What could make this a really great storm in Boston vs very good but not one of the greats is whatever happens on Monday with the coastal low. They'll also get assist from the coastal front. Pretty confident Boston gets at least 15" and good shot at 18. If the Monday snow happens they have a shot at over 20. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

GDPS and I am off.

Yea definitely lack of model agreement since GFS has Philly and NYC getting almost the same amount and GDPS has NYC getting 7 inches more. It's nowcasting at this point.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

My temp is running a degree cooler then progged rn,not much cloud cover so the temps are still dropping. 12/-9f currently. 

[weatherpruf]

mt holly not as bullish as they were ; dropped amounts 2-4 and believe south of 95 switches to rain; sleet up to i 80, then they admit warm layer isn't that deep and could be overcome by intense snows....something we have tended to discount..... 

[nycsnow]

Rap 12-16

[MJO812]

Steve D likes 8-16 inches for NYC and LI , 12-18 for north of NYC  and 6-12 inches south of NYC 

He thinks the sleet line on the Nam is wrong. 

[psv88]

Canadian looks great! 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Steve D likes 8-16 inches for NYC and LI and 12-18 for north of NYC  and 6-12 inches south of NYC 

He thinks the sleet line on the Nam is wrong. 

Ive been rooting for the 557ww model. Last 3 days it has kept most of nyc snow along with the navgem models. 

[SACRUS]

 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Canadian looks great! 

Incredible trends tonight, I’m really starting to get curious of the sleet line hitting the Bronx and dropping south rrfs hrrr and rap have been doing it continuously 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Incredible trends tonight, I’m really starting to get curious of the sleet line hitting the Bronx and dropping south rrfs hrrr and rap have been doing it continuously 

Ill be here waiting on it.. trust me it might be epic around these parts if it never mixes. At the rates/ratios. It might be crazy for a while.

[David-LI]

canadian seems to stay all snow for the city, correct me if Im wrong

[eduggs]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. That's correct. From Pivotal Weather:

ECMWF, UKMET, and Environment Canada models keep track of precipitation type in a precise way as the model integrates, so we know how exactly much precipitation falls in the form of snow (at least, based on the model’s internal diagnostics). This eliminates any concern about including sleet, graupel, or rain when we compute snowfall for those models.

https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall

This is questionable. See DCA as an example below. At 18z Sun the 18z UKMET shows 7.7" snow accumulation. The ptype is sleet and the sleet line has cleanly crossed the area. By 21z the sleet line has crossed into PA indicating the line was advancing steadily northward. Yet at 27hr the UK snow total on Pivotal increases to 8.9" for DCA and then 10.3", and 10.4" at 30hr and 33hr. Based on this continued snow accumulation when the dominant ptype is clearly not snow, particularly combined with the mismatch between the UKMET snowfall output compared to other models, the claim above seems dubious. Something is not right with the way Pivotal depicts snowfall accumulation for the UKMET.

 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D likes 8-16 inches for NYC and LI , 12-18 for north of NYC  and 6-12 inches south of NYC 

He thinks the sleet line on the Nam is wrong. 

He never adjusts his forecasts though

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

mt holly not as bullish as they were ; dropped amounts 2-4 and believe south of 95 switches to rain; sleet up to i 80, then they admit warm layer isn't that deep and could be overcome by intense snows....something we have tended to discount..... 

Here are the associated graphics:

 

[eduggs]

Just now, eduggs said:

This is questionable. See DCA as an example below. At 18z Sun the 18z UKMET shows 7.7" snow accumulation. The ptype is sleet and the sleet line has cleanly crossed the area. By 21z the sleet line has crossed into PA indicating the line was advancing steadily northward. Yet at 27hr the UK snow total on Pivotal increases to 8.9" for DCA and then 10.3", and 10.4" at 30hr and 33hr. Based on this continued snow accumulation when the dominant ptype is clearly not snow, particularly combined with the mismatch between the UKMET snowfall output compared to other models, the claim above seems dubious. Something is not right with the way Pivotal depicts snowfall accumulation for the UKMET.

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

He never adjusts his forecasts though

He sticks with it

[MANDA]

Off to get some sleep.  Interesting day of weather coming up for tomorrow.  Hourly obs, radar and mPING on the agenda.  Good luck to all. 

Hope everyone gets what they want and what they are expecting.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Off to get some sleep.  Interesting day of weather coming up for tomorrow.  Hourly obs, radar and mPING on the agenda.  Good luck to all. 

Hope everyone gets what the want and what they expecting.

I will be working tomorrow. Should be fun.

[nycsnow]

still watching that trend on the hourly models and hrr once again brings the mix line up and then starts to drop it south of li…. Really hope this isn’t fake 

[psv88]

13/-4. Ready to go 

[winterwx21]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

He never adjusts his forecasts though

I think 6 to 10 is a good forecast for our area. Maybe 7 inches of snow and then 1 to 2 inches of sleet. 

[Snowlover11]

Its go time, Snowing in DC.

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Its go time, Snowing in DC.

our start Time could be earlier than advertised ,,,

[hooralph]

Find someone to love and hold on to it like the UKMET and that weird snow hole over NYC.