EastonSN+ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, MJO812 said: Lets just watch the radar and hope for a positive bust. Gonna be a lot of snow and sleet regardless and will stick around for a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 RGEM is less than an inch difference from 18z for a lot of people biggest thing I noticed I posted above the fact it brought the big boy numbers 14-17 to the ct coast li sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Those few hours before the change look so intense. I really think with ratios we could be pushing 3"+ an hour. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, nycsnow said: RGEM is literally 10 miles if that from giving north shore 14-16 inches North shore might do well I'll probably get 2" more than the south shore because snow will hang on a little longer here but we see the colder models gradually adjusting warmer and the NAM/GFS getting slightly colder but no big cave. Pretty clear that we'll be sleeting by 21z. White Plains/coastal CT probably get a little sleet but not enough to really harm accumulations. So that could get them another 3-5" total over me. I do think 6" is a lock for everyone in this subforum save coastal NJ where we'll have to see when it changes to rain. Again, since sleet and snow are the same water content as all snow, it will just make it harder to move/shovel here and maybe we get some freezing drizzle to fuse it all together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Intense upward air motion. Almost always signals heavy snow when you hear thunder when it’s snowing 5 minutes ago, Irish said: Other than sounding cool, being during a snow storm, is there any other importance to it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Its all model noise at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 All it would take is a delay in mix for higher totals to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 RGEM is 10-14” for the island, west to east. Let’s go! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: RGEM is less than an inch difference from 18z for a lot of people biggest thing I noticed I posted above the fact it brought the big boy numbers 14-17 to the ct coast li sound It has a foot for northern NYC and the extreme north shore of LI. It's probably the best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I'll probably get 2" more than the south shore because snow will hang on a little longer here but we see the colder models gradually adjusting warmer and the NAM/GFS getting slightly colder but no big cave. Pretty clear that we'll be sleeting by 21z. White Plains/coastal CT probably get a little sleet but not enough to really harm accumulations. So that could get them another 3-5" total over me. I do think 6" is a lock for everyone in this subforum save coastal NJ where we'll have to see when it changes to rain. Again, since sleet and snow are the same water content as all snow, it will just make it harder to move/shovel here and maybe we get some freezing drizzle to fuse it all together. Also one thing to look at, I don’t know how to lol but been seeing a lot of people on social media saying be careful of precip maps because a lot of them showing sleet the sounding would support snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: It has 12+ for northern NYC and the extreme north shore of LI. It's probably the best case scenario. It’s close to all models other than GFS and NAM, both which got better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 GFS increased totals even though had more sleet due to heavier snow initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: All it would take is a delay in mix for higher totals to verify. Literally 2 hours can mean difference form 10 to 12 or 14 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 In Tennessee any snow that fell is now frozen solid per my sister. Temp of 24 there, from 19 in morning, shoot up like a rocket to 54 then down to the 20s. Wild temp swings down there.. rough living down there with such erratic temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, psv88 said: RGEM is 10-14” for the island, west to east. Let’s go! of snow or mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, David-LI said: of snow or mix? Combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS increased totals even though had more sleet due to heavier snow initially. I mean Philly has pretty much the same amount of snow as NYC and White Plains? GFS sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I just looked at the 0z RGEM on Pivotal and not much change to me. Sleet is here by 21z and seemed to advance a little faster. Also it has something like 1.6" liquid now-whatever falls will be heavy with a lot of water content. This will be lasting a long time on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I just looked at the 0z RGEM on Pivotal and not much change to me. Sleet is here by 21z and seemed to advance a little faster. Sleet got here faster offset by a heavier thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, ILoveWinter said: I mean Philly has pretty much the same amount of snow as NYC and White Plains? GFS sucks Not super likely but could happen if they get better banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 156 pages wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 March 2017 had 7.5 of snow followed by 2.0 of snow sleet mix for a total of 9.5. Sleet snow mix DOES accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I just looked at the 0z RGEM on Pivotal and not much change to me. Sleet is here by 21z and seemed to advance a little faster. You’ll probably grab an extra inch or two from this storm than me. My southeast move will hurt a bit. I’ve seen the sleet line get pinned just south of the LIE before, which gives me a whole mile of safety…I’ve also seen it stay a mile north for a long time. Will be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, EastonSN+ said: March 2017 had 7.5 of snow followed by 2.0 of snow sleet mix for a total of 9.5. Sleet snow mix DOES accumulate. Yes if it's mixed it will but slower, I mean even sleet on it's own will accumulate especially on top of a snowpack it'll just be very slow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: Not super likely but could happen if they get better banding. The resolution on the GFS sucks so it shows these weird blotches on the snowmaps. But I think from here down to DC are basically in the same boat. NYC probably does a couple to few inches better than DC because of closeness to the high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: GFS increased totals even though had more sleet due to heavier snow initially. Lol gives Boston almost double the RDPS, and NYC almost half. Things are still all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Extended RAP rolling and it’s continuing what it was doing at 02z the mix line touches nyc and north shore and drops south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 GDPS and I am off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, DreamBig said: Lol gives Boston almost double the RDPS, and NYC almost half. Things are still all over the place SWFE usually don't produce 2 feet type totals I don't think but this one is very cold and very juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, DreamBig said: Lol gives Boston almost double the RDPS, and NY almost half. Things are still all over the place What could make this a really great storm in Boston vs very good but not one of the greats is whatever happens on Monday with the coastal low. They'll also get assist from the coastal front. Pretty confident Boston gets at least 15" and good shot at 18. If the Monday snow happens they have a shot at over 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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