MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I"m going to need to see some support from the 00Z CMC RDPS / HRDPS before I give much weight to this. If it is onto something both the RDPS and HRDPS should start to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MANDA said: I"m going to need to see some support from the 00Z CMC RDPS / HRDPS before I give much weight to this. If it is onto something both the RDPS and HRDPS should start to see it. They were there @ 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Fv3 as mix starts in metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Nam is unchanged from its 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 NAM doesn't seem to be backing down, if anything maybe a touch warmer than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Of course it is! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Nam is unchanged from its 18z run 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: NAM doesn't seem to be backing down, if anything maybe a touch warmer than 18z. Its actually slightly south with the sleet. Coastal is east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Fv3 is great 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The NAM is actually a touch warmer. At this point I think it’s just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 As I suspected the NAM isn't backing down, it's been pretty consistent. Whether or not that means it's correct is another story but you can't discount this potential solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Nam will lead the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3k change. A little better in some spots worse in others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: NAM doesn't seem to be backing down, if anything maybe a touch warmer than 18z. At this point the NAM is probably overdone a little with the warmth but it has something of a clue. I believe it more than the cold HRRR/RAP that I’ve seen come in too cold in SWFE setups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 NAM is way different than the other models in terms of the snow amounts in southern Ohio and southern PA. We'll probably know by tomorrow morning if the NAM is onto something or lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, jm1220 said: At this point the NAM is probably overdone a little with the warmth but it has something of a clue. I believe it more than the cold HRRR/RAP that I’ve seen come in too cold in SWFE setups. Nam 3k don’t even agree it’s a bit colder and snowier Nam is literally on its owns there’s gonna be a point where people stop giving it so much credit. Nothing is trending to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1/26 00z NAM QPF storm Snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: NAM is way different than the other models in terms of the snow amounts in southern Ohio and southern PA. We'll probably know by tomorrow morning if the NAM is onto something or lost. From Little Rock to Carolina’s NAM has been off all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: Nam will lead the way You dont know that. People bash the Nam all the time and now its right ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Mixing line seems to be further south then modeled at the moment. Not by a lot but noticeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: NAM is way different than the other models in terms of the snow amounts in southern Ohio and southern PA. We'll probably know by tomorrow morning if the NAM is onto something or lost. We’ll know in the morning as the snow shield comes into the area. We need the hellacious thump the RGEM models and HRRR/RAP show. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: We’ll know in the morning as the snow shield comes into the area. We need the hellacious thump the RGEM models and HRRR/RAP show. The RGEM showing the big thump gives me some hope, and the UKIE as well. I can't much if any stock into what the HRRR and RAP show, they almost always run on the cold side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/26 00z NAM QPF storm Snow: Well, if there’s 5” of snow at 10-1 ratio (0.5” liquid) then 1” liquid as sleet, that’s 8” total with sleet at 3:1 ratio. And again I don’t think this is gospel correct but it’s been consistent enough today to think it has to be onto something since it’s usually a little better at finding these warm layers, although it often overdoes it somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/26 00z NAM QPF storm Snow: NAM shows 1.4” of QPF has 7” of snow in NW NJ. I don’t buy it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, psv88 said: NAM shows 1.4” of QPF has 7” of snow in NW NJ. I don’t buy it I’m sure it’s somewhat excessive. It probably jumps the sleet line all the way to I-84 still. You can see how the amounts drop from Monticello area to I-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You dont know that. People bash the Nam all the time and now its right ? it certainly led the way detecting the warm nose from its 84 hour run...there is pretty good agreement now that south of 78 will have a changeover to sleet...the question is does it get all the way up the ny/nj border. The high end amount for this storm have all been sliced little by little. The HRRR is always cold and snowier than reality. Im not saying it might only be 4-6, i am saying the warming alot is real. That will prevent those 10-12 inch amounts in central jersey and Nyc and jersey shore im expecting a heavy thump for about 5 hours from 8-1pm and then sleet and then shuts down to snizzle....5-6 inches with an inch of sleet. maybe 6-8 a call for my area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Source: https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/53067/noaa_53067_DS1.pdf 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Well, if there’s 5” of snow at 10-1 ratio (0.5” liquid) then 1” liquid as sleet, that’s 8” total with sleet at 3:1 ratio. And again I don’t think this is gospel correct but it’s been consistent enough today to think it has to be onto something since it’s usually a little better at finding these warm layers, although it often overdoes it somewhat. But what about every other model that’s been locked in for days? You could make the argument for cmc rgem Ukie rap hrrr euro ai euro they haven’t wavered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Nam has to be overdone. Euro has held. I’ll take the blend. 6-10” on Long Island and then sleet 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Nam has to be overdone. Euro has held. I’ll take the blend. 6-10” on Long Island and then sleet At this time anyone on LI should be happy with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8-14 nyc area and if nyc hits double digits better never hear about the NAM and how it nailed 4 warm tongue events in the last 37 years lol….hopefully the colder trends on the other models continue tn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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