Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol.

And already at double digit snow by then, RAP has been solid. And the last few runs it stalls it in the spot where the run ended 

[kat5hurricane]

23 minutes ago, ag3 said:

I’m in Whitestone and my entire yard is still covered in snow as are many areas.

Bare Ground here, outside of a random snow patch or two

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, nycsnow said:

And already at double digit snow by then, RAP has been solid. And the last few runs it stalls it in the spot where the run ended 

Yes its possible if precip is really heavy the sleet line could stall for a few hours and obviously that makes a huge difference in this scenario.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

00Z guidance has commenced 

 

21z SREF

 

 

This portends the NAM being north and warmer 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol.

LOL

Very few people here actually live in NYC proper. 

[brooklynwx99]

i see zero reason to deviate from 6-10" for the city and about 8-12" here closer to 287... using mostly a RGEM/ECMWF blend with some consideration for the NAM

very strong 700mb FGEN will allow for rates up to 2"/hr for a time midday into the early-mid afternoon. should be a fun day tomorrow

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Yes its possible if precip is really heavy the sleet line could stall for a few hours and obviously that makes a huge difference in this scenario.

The heavy precip will help for sure cooling the column for a while but eventually all guidance gets the sleet line through the city and LI, probably by 4-5pm. Just north of the city it could go back and forth. 

[sussexcountyobs]

OMG .Everybody just needs to chill out Yolanda! Stop living or dying by every new model that comes out. Can you imagine if every NWS Met changed the forecast with every model run? That would equal chaos.

There is a major, impactful winter storm imminent.  For EVERYONE. Forget about snow totals. Impacts, will be similar,  probably worse were you get more sleet or freezing rain. 

[Wannabehippie]

16 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, they still get the thump to start maybe 4-6”, but the easterly fetch eventually gets temps over 32 especially near/east of the Garden State Parkway. Interior S NJ might have an icing event since I think this surface cold will be hard to dislodge. 

I am thinking areas south of I-78 will be the battle zone in NJ for that 32 degree line.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

I can't wait for tomorrow!

[mikeysed]

Feeble alert. We have heavy snow south oofMD

[Stormlover74]

It all comes down to the 1 to 4pm period when precip will be cranking. If we flip at 1 we get 5 to 7 with a lot of sleet. Closer to 4 we get 8 to 12. I'm still going with 6 for mby with 2" of sleet on top. 

 

[nightknights]

This one i feel over performs.   Im usually underperformer type of guy.  I still say 12-15.  Think the warm nose is overdone.  Battleground Driscoll bridge area

[MANDA]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i see zero reason to deviate from 6-10" for the city and about 8-12" here closer to 287... using mostly a RGEM/ECMWF blend with some consideration for the NAM

very strong 700mb FGEN will allow for rates up to 2"/hr for a time midday into the early-mid afternoon. should be a fun day tomorrow

I've got 7-11" I-78/I-80 corridors and 6-9 EWR, CP, JFK

[danstorm]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

I've got 7-11" I-78/I-80 corridors and 6-9 EWR, CP, JFK

I like this call and I think the risk is to the upside, personally.  I expect 8-9" where I live but would be less shocked by 12 than I would 6 (including IP).

The initial 700 mb forcing is classic and the airmass couldn't be better for isentropic upglide.  

I also think areas around I-80ish may not flip completely to snow if rates remain heavy.  

[Yanksfan]

4 minutes ago, nightknights said:

This one i feel over performs.   Im usually underperformer type of guy.  I still say 12-15.  Think the warm nose is overdone.  Battleground Driscoll bridge area

I agree fellow Nutley resident. NAM will continue correcting south tonight.

[Metasequoia]

Since this storm will be dumping heavy snow from the Texas through New England, the NESIS value might be huge. Category 3 at least... maybe 4. Although, I wonder how far outside of the northeast, NESIS applies to. I thought to the Midwest...
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

[mob1]

16 degrees in Central Park with a DP of -13.

Models show the column saturating relatively quickly once the precipitation moves in, but some virga is to be expected. 

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, danstorm said:

I like this call and I think the risk is to the upside, personally.  I expect 8-9" where I live but would be less shocked by 12 than I would 6 (including IP).

The initial 700 mb forcing is classic and the airmass couldn't be better for isentropic upglide.  

I also think areas around I-80ish may not flip completely to snow if rates remain heavy.  

Model consensus looks like at any given point the best forcing lasts for about 4 hours.  Will rip snow from around late morning to mid afternoon from SW to NE across NJ/NYC metro and LI.  Most of snow will fall during that time.  Glad this will be taking place during the daylight hours.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

LOL

Very few people here actually live in NYC proper. 

Boogie down here. 

[nycsnow]

Hrr is still a tick colder and snowier through 18z tomorrow compared to the 18z run

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently: partly cloudy. +6.3F

[Stormlover74]

Hrrr thumps. Still snowing at 4pm for most of us

[nycsnow]

Hrr similar to the rap in slowing the mix line down right below long island 

[coastalplainsnowman]

27 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Since this storm will be dumping heavy snow from the Texas through New England, the NESIS value might be huge. Category 3 at least... maybe 4. Although, I wonder how far outside of the northeast, NESIS applies to. I thought to the Midwest...
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

I looked this up the other day and posted about it - I'll go back and find it.  The formula is surprisingly straight forward.  It does not take location into effect, just accumulations, land area, and population.

Edit:  Found it.  Pasting it in here b/c I can't figure out how to include a link to the original post. As you can see it uses an example.  I'm not clear on the summation part, but am just speaking here to the variables apparently used in the formula.  I'm sure there's someone on here much smarter than me about this who can correct me.

 

 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Hrr is still a tick colder and snowier through 18z tomorrow compared to the 18z run

At 21z tomorrow it has sleet south of NYC still and keeps trying to wash it out as it advances. If that happens most of us will be very very happy. I’m still wary of it being too cold in these setups though. 

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Currently: partly cloudy. +6.3F

With the extremely cold and dry air would expect the snow to start out fine and grainy early on.  Once the lift and saturation gets underway look for nice dendrites that accumulate efficiently.

[nycsnow]

HRR is gonna be 10+ for most by 22z

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

At 21z tomorrow it has sleet south of NYC still and keeps trying to wash it out as it advances. If that happens most of us will be very very happy. I’m still wary of it being too cold in these setups though. 

Agreed but it’s also not alone. Minus the nam all the other short range mesos do this

[Stormlover74]

Just through 5pm