nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol. And already at double digit snow by then, RAP has been solid. And the last few runs it stalls it in the spot where the run ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 23 minutes ago, ag3 said: I’m in Whitestone and my entire yard is still covered in snow as are many areas. Bare Ground here, outside of a random snow patch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, nycsnow said: And already at double digit snow by then, RAP has been solid. And the last few runs it stalls it in the spot where the run ended Yes its possible if precip is really heavy the sleet line could stall for a few hours and obviously that makes a huge difference in this scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 00Z guidance has commenced 21z SREF This portends the NAM being north and warmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol. LOL Very few people here actually live in NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 i see zero reason to deviate from 6-10" for the city and about 8-12" here closer to 287... using mostly a RGEM/ECMWF blend with some consideration for the NAM very strong 700mb FGEN will allow for rates up to 2"/hr for a time midday into the early-mid afternoon. should be a fun day tomorrow 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Yes its possible if precip is really heavy the sleet line could stall for a few hours and obviously that makes a huge difference in this scenario. The heavy precip will help for sure cooling the column for a while but eventually all guidance gets the sleet line through the city and LI, probably by 4-5pm. Just north of the city it could go back and forth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 OMG .Everybody just needs to chill out Yolanda! Stop living or dying by every new model that comes out. Can you imagine if every NWS Met changed the forecast with every model run? That would equal chaos. There is a major, impactful winter storm imminent. For EVERYONE. Forget about snow totals. Impacts, will be similar, probably worse were you get more sleet or freezing rain. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 16 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep, they still get the thump to start maybe 4-6”, but the easterly fetch eventually gets temps over 32 especially near/east of the Garden State Parkway. Interior S NJ might have an icing event since I think this surface cold will be hard to dislodge. I am thinking areas south of I-78 will be the battle zone in NJ for that 32 degree line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 I can't wait for tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Feeble alert. We have heavy snow south oofMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 It all comes down to the 1 to 4pm period when precip will be cranking. If we flip at 1 we get 5 to 7 with a lot of sleet. Closer to 4 we get 8 to 12. I'm still going with 6 for mby with 2" of sleet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 This one i feel over performs. Im usually underperformer type of guy. I still say 12-15. Think the warm nose is overdone. Battleground Driscoll bridge area 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i see zero reason to deviate from 6-10" for the city and about 8-12" here closer to 287... using mostly a RGEM/ECMWF blend with some consideration for the NAM very strong 700mb FGEN will allow for rates up to 2"/hr for a time midday into the early-mid afternoon. should be a fun day tomorrow I've got 7-11" I-78/I-80 corridors and 6-9 EWR, CP, JFK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, MANDA said: I've got 7-11" I-78/I-80 corridors and 6-9 EWR, CP, JFK I like this call and I think the risk is to the upside, personally. I expect 8-9" where I live but would be less shocked by 12 than I would 6 (including IP). The initial 700 mb forcing is classic and the airmass couldn't be better for isentropic upglide. I also think areas around I-80ish may not flip completely to snow if rates remain heavy. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 4 minutes ago, nightknights said: This one i feel over performs. Im usually underperformer type of guy. I still say 12-15. Think the warm nose is overdone. Battleground Driscoll bridge area I agree fellow Nutley resident. NAM will continue correcting south tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Since this storm will be dumping heavy snow from the Texas through New England, the NESIS value might be huge. Category 3 at least... maybe 4. Although, I wonder how far outside of the northeast, NESIS applies to. I thought to the Midwest...https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 16 degrees in Central Park with a DP of -13. Models show the column saturating relatively quickly once the precipitation moves in, but some virga is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 9 minutes ago, danstorm said: I like this call and I think the risk is to the upside, personally. I expect 8-9" where I live but would be less shocked by 12 than I would 6 (including IP). The initial 700 mb forcing is classic and the airmass couldn't be better for isentropic upglide. I also think areas around I-80ish may not flip completely to snow if rates remain heavy. Model consensus looks like at any given point the best forcing lasts for about 4 hours. Will rip snow from around late morning to mid afternoon from SW to NE across NJ/NYC metro and LI. Most of snow will fall during that time. Glad this will be taking place during the daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: LOL Very few people here actually live in NYC proper. Boogie down here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Hrr is still a tick colder and snowier through 18z tomorrow compared to the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Currently: partly cloudy. +6.3F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Hrrr thumps. Still snowing at 4pm for most of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Hrr similar to the rap in slowing the mix line down right below long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 27 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Since this storm will be dumping heavy snow from the Texas through New England, the NESIS value might be huge. Category 3 at least... maybe 4. Although, I wonder how far outside of the northeast, NESIS applies to. I thought to the Midwest...https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis I looked this up the other day and posted about it - I'll go back and find it. The formula is surprisingly straight forward. It does not take location into effect, just accumulations, land area, and population. Edit: Found it. Pasting it in here b/c I can't figure out how to include a link to the original post. As you can see it uses an example. I'm not clear on the summation part, but am just speaking here to the variables apparently used in the formula. I'm sure there's someone on here much smarter than me about this who can correct me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 2 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Hrr is still a tick colder and snowier through 18z tomorrow compared to the 18z run At 21z tomorrow it has sleet south of NYC still and keeps trying to wash it out as it advances. If that happens most of us will be very very happy. I’m still wary of it being too cold in these setups though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: Currently: partly cloudy. +6.3F With the extremely cold and dry air would expect the snow to start out fine and grainy early on. Once the lift and saturation gets underway look for nice dendrites that accumulate efficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 HRR is gonna be 10+ for most by 22z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just now, jm1220 said: At 21z tomorrow it has sleet south of NYC still and keeps trying to wash it out as it advances. If that happens most of us will be very very happy. I’m still wary of it being too cold in these setups though. Agreed but it’s also not alone. Minus the nam all the other short range mesos do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Just through 5pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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