Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[eduggs]

The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that?

[Wannabehippie]

This system shows why Miller B storms are always iffy for coastal areas. If that secondary low isn't strong enough, or forms too close to the coast, warmer air will mix in, producing sleet, freezing rain, possibly rain along coastal areas. If we want a big all snow storm we need a Miller A just off the coast, or a Miller B with that secondary in the right position, and strong enough to take over from the primary. 
Still it looks like we will get a nice thump of snow before it mixes with sleet, possibly freezing rain in areas. So, no real complaints from me, as it is still going to fall within my 0" - 100" prediction range.

 

[ag3]

3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

In Brooklyn? I'm surprised. I have virtually nothing here and I'm well north of you in Whitestone, Queens.

Either way, we're all getting thumped tomorrow so it'll be fun.

I’m in Whitestone and my entire yard is still covered in snow as are many areas.

[mob1]

Just now, ag3 said:

Im in Whitestone and my entire yard is still covered in snow as are many areas.

Yeah, that's what I mean, not piles in a parking lot. 

[Wannabehippie]

Just now, eduggs said:

The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that?

Possibly if that low is too close to eastern half of LI, especially south facing areas. A difference of 20 miles can make a huge difference, and that has to be within the range of errors on all the models.

 

[ag3]

Just now, mob1 said:

Yeah, that's what I mean, not piles in a parking lot. 

Parts of my area look like this as well. Not sure where in Whitestone the other guy lives. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, eduggs said:

The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that?

Looks more like drizzle then steady rain. I could buy that but I think ZR probably more likely.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that?

I’m sure you do

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that?

No. Maybe Montauk and a tiny part of the twin forks. I’m more worried about it for the NJ coast where there’s a much longer fetch off the ocean on ENE wind. 

[SACRUS]

 

RAP mixing by 3PM

[kat5hurricane]

2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

I’m in Whitestone and my entire yard is still covered in snow as are many areas.

We only have patches here, I'm near the Throgs Neck bridge and all throughout the town it's the same deal and Bayside as well, I was out and about most of the day. Where in Whitestone are you that you have almost full coverage? Not that I doubt you but it's pretty bare here.

[psv88]

Just now, jm1220 said:

No. Maybe Montauk and a tiny part of the twin forks. I’m more worried about it for the NJ coast where there’s a much longer fetch off the ocean on ENE wind. 

Agreed. Our winds are ENE and sourced from Connecticut. Cold enough and sound is cold 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

I’m in Whitestone and my entire yard is still covered in snow as are many areas.

Yep seems to be a LIE dividing zone as happens so many times. Most areas here are covered in at least some snow. I was in Long Beach on Thursday and nothing. 

[Wannabehippie]

Anyone going on a Jebwalk early tomorrow AM before any change over?

 

[mob1]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The RGEM has several hours of rain on the eastern half of LI overnight Sun - especially south shore. Anybody buy that?

It's possible. Very often in storms like this models underforecast the low level cold initially, but later in the forecast period the opposite is actually true. 

I've seen the city be stuck in the 20s all day in SWFE events despite models having it higher, then jump to the 40s or even higher towards the tail end when the dry slot approaches and/or the primary cutting north and west of us.

 

With that said, the wind direction here argues against that. Maybe if coastal moves so far north that it actually bisects LI. 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

RAP mixing by 3PM

would be another double digit for metro area 

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Pivotal don’t let any maps that show sleet impact snow accumulation I believe 

Yes. That's correct. From Pivotal Weather:

ECMWF, UKMET, and Environment Canada models keep track of precipitation type in a precise way as the model integrates, so we know how exactly much precipitation falls in the form of snow (at least, based on the model’s internal diagnostics). This eliminates any concern about including sleet, graupel, or rain when we compute snowfall for those models.

https://home.pivotalweather.com/guides/snowfall

[Winterweatherlover]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

No. Maybe Montauk and a tiny part of the twin forks. I’m more worried about it for the NJ coast where there’s a much longer fetch off the ocean on ENE wind. 

I think a flip to plain rain on the NJ coast at least from Toms River area southward almost a given at this point but should see a good thump before that.

[Brasiluvsnow]

42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and Euro AI have a big thump. Around a foot for NYC. 

Euro AI has been having IMO a good winter

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

would be another double digit for metro area 

It seems models have increased totals in southern Ohio and southern PA in the last few cycles which is interesting as they are closer to the storm and maybe a sign of a weaker primary? 

[RU848789]

With the 18Z models now out and generally (Euro/AIFS/RGEM/UK/CMC/HRDPS/HRRR) a bit snowier/less sleety than at 6Z and 12Z gnerally showing 8-12" before any sleet at 10:1 (which would be 10-15" at 13:1 ratios) I feel more confidence in an 8-12" snowfall for 95 from Philly to NYC and all of CNJ/EPA N of 276/195 and S of 78 (and more N of there). The two model exceptions were the NAM/GFS, which showed 5-6" (at 10:1) for CNJ (6-8" at 13:1 ratios) and then a lot of sleet (2"). I'll definitely take the Euro/AIFS/RGEM/UK/CMC/HRDPS/HRRR over NAM/GFS every day of the week (with the GFS the worst, going from most snowy to least snowy over the last 24 hours). We'll see soon I guess.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I think a flip to plain rain on the NJ coast at least from Toms River area southward almost a given at this point but should see a good thump before that.

Yep, they still get the thump to start maybe 4-6”, but the easterly fetch eventually gets temps over 32 especially near/east of the Garden State Parkway. Interior S NJ might have an icing event since I think this surface cold will be hard to dislodge. 

[jdj5211]

All I know is that radar looks HEALTHY!




.

[SACRUS]

 

Snow it s just about to WPA and WV and that usually equates to a 8 hour journey here (more or less 3-4 AM).

[NJwx85]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

RAP mixing by 3PM

Once again, this is confined to areas well South of where most people here live.

[Noteaster101]

 I don’t know if anyone saw Bernie’s  latest video, but he’s very skeptical about the warm air overtaking the cold air and the sleet, making it into New York City

 

https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1MnGnPprrYjxO

16 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

 

[Yanksfan]

30 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

NAM literally on its own and trended colder at 18z

It’s gonna cave. If not at 00z then at 06z.

[SACRUS]

 

00Z guidance has commenced 

 

21z SREF

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Once again, this is confined to areas well South of where most people here live.

It's knocking on the door of NYC which is where most of the forum lives lol.

[coastalplainsnowman]

43 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Cleaned my yard and shed when it was 12 degrees. Had on 4 layers. I enjoyed it

Frigid but calm is great.