jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 12z RRFS (new / replace NAM) Snow by 3/4AM Snow through 2PM before mixing with sleet Yeah, if there's sleet pushing to I-80 in PA then all the way to Hartford NYC is screwed for any kind of big event. Again it's one possible outcome but the other cold models need to hold on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 12z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The NAM is the Aaron Rodgers of models Clearly ready for the exit Was always flawed but racked up some big wins in its career Problematic in ways that distract from its strengths (but fans like it for being "contrarian") People vigorously rooting for it to lose Still capable of some key plays that make it impossible to write off 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just caught up and surprisingly, didn't see the NWS snow/ice maps, so here they are. I had also summarized all of the NWS-Philly/NYC warnings elsewhere, so sharing them here. Nice to see the NWS finally bringing snowfall forecasts in line with the models and most other forecasters - I think a general 8-12" of snow and sleet for most S of 78 and more N of there and NE through NYC and the LHV/CT is pretty good. The NWS has me at 11.9" of snow/sleet, which I think is still a little high, so I'll go with 10.4" for Metuchen. NWS-Philly Counties For Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton, the warning is for 11-15" of snow/sleet, but no freezing rain (ZR) For counties in PA/NJ south of 78 (except coastal counties south of Ocean), i.e.,Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Berks-Delaware-Philadelphia-Chester-Montgomery (and Newcastle/Kent in DE), the warnings are for 7-13" of snow and sleet with up to 0.3" of freezing rain accretion, especially SW of Trenton as per the ice map below. For Atlantic/Cape May counties and southern DE, the warning is for 4-8" of snow/sleet plus about 0.1" ZR NWS-NYC Counties For W. Passaic, the entire Hudson Valley and the coastal CT counties, the warning is for 12-16" of snow For NENJ (Union/Essex/Hudson/Bergen/E Passaic), NYC and LI, the warning is for 10-14" snow/sleet plus a light glaze of ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Definitely way colder than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Another thought Don is the start time to what the models are showing. The cold dry air in place might hold off for the snow to reach the surface for some time more till the columns saturate especially points north of NYC. Currently 7/-8 Yes. I agree. The steady snow might not arrive in the Hudson Valley until 13z or 14z (northern Hudson Valley). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 If this continues the 11” forecast at islip from NWS is going to lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 12z ICON Total QPF Total Snow / Sleet (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. I agree. The steady snow might not arrive in the Hudson Valley until 13z or 14z (northern Hudson Valley). Damn, now we have to worry about the sun angle...at 15F, lol. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 14z RAP has snow starting around 4/5 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Icon is colder than nam and in nyc area it’s only .5- inch different from 06z so I’d say it held steady?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, mulen said: Been along time since I viewed this board go all the way back to the TWC days good look dudes no snow googles been in Florida 10 yrs so I watch from afar . We were talking about you and others in the obs thread a few days ago Glad to see you seeya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Honestly, while the threat for sleet at the end is increasing somewhat, many here are way overreacting. Take a compromise and you get one heck of a snowstorm for just about everyone. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Regardless of which models are right, it appears we're in for a general 6 to 12 inch snowfall before any mix/change. I cannot believe that so many are miserable about that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, SACRUS said: Queue the "it's still snowing in Nashville and it was supposed to changeover to sleet already so that's a good sign for us" posts lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, mulen said: Been along time since I viewed this board go all the way back to the TWC days good look dudes no snow googles been in Florida 10 yrs so I watch from afar . It's good to see ya dude! Hope all is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, WIN said: Regardless of which models are right, it appears we're in for a general 6 to 12 inch snowfall before any mix/change. I cannot believe that so many are miserable about that. I am thinking 5 to 8 in NYC, but at this point I will be satisfied with that, especially if the sleet helps it form into a glacier afterwards. . I guess my one worry is that things just keep trending bad until game time and even 5 is not within reach in the urban, coastal core. Hope I am wrong. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 58 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We shall see. Nam can be amped but cant discount it since this is a new run. We go through this so often. And people cover their eyes and ears beforehand and pretend it didn't happen afterwards. When the NAM shows sleet it sleets. And the extent is usually north of where the 3rd party vendor graphics show it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This reminds me a lot of December 16/17 2020. I don't think the public freakout was as over-the-top for that one... but then again, people didn't have the apple weather app yet I don't think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Besides the thermals, I guess I also worry that the storm ends up moving past us even faster than models suggest it will. It seems that often ends up happening, unless its a prolonged overrunning or crawling coastal. There have been plenty of times where we expect storms to last 12 hours but in reality they pass by in about 8 to 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree Fv3 is all snow and a big thump How does the FV3 usually do with thermals ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: We shall see. Nam can be amped but cant discount it since this is a new run. I agree with you. Discount the NAM at your own risk at this range. Especially since the new RRFS is trending towards it. Over the years people have been burned really bad tossing the NAM in these types of setups 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: We go through this so often. And people cover their eyes and ears beforehand and pretend it didn't happen afterwards. When the NAM shows sleet it sleets. And the extent is usually north of where the 3rd party vendor graphics show it. Nobody said it wasn’t going to sleet! You always seem to flip what people are saying. I still think 6-10 in the city is doable and areas north and west will see over a foot. I reside 30 miles north of the city and even with the NAM showing sleet up here around 4pm the damage has been done already with 8-12” by that time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I agree with you. Discount the NAM at your own risk at this range. Especially since the new RRFS is trending towards it. Over the years people have been burned really bad tossing the NAM in these types of setups Yeah I'm leaning lower. I think ratios and thump still gets us several inches but it's clearly trending less and less. Under 6" honestly wouldn't surprise me now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I don’t think the NAM is wrong, but I do have a hard time seeing sleet push all the way up damn near Poughkeepsie. The battleground for these storms is almost always that I-78 line and maybe a little further north. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 God that's an ugly sounding for NYC. I wonder if the warm layer being between 700mb and 850mb makes it less likely to show up on 3rd party graphics for other models... maybe other models don't generate and distribute temperature data in between the more common pressure heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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