NEG NAO Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, winterwarlock said: we are in such a spot where we can have 6 inches or 12 and it will be impossible to forecast...but I always hear those pingers alot early that progged like December 26 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Less snow but mostly due to lower qpf. Still 6-10 the overall system looks se to me but we get a weird dry spot 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: like December 26 ? not just that storm... 40 years of watching these overruning events...thump to sleet to snizzle...the end part usually dry slots and we get less qpf than forecast the rgem is what I think will happen for me at least 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: like December 26 ? that one actually had backend snows though... for me the classics are march 94 and march 2017. that 94 storm was brutal; like the house was being sandblasted. unlike this one, temps were more marginal so it was slushy on bottom; try shoveling 5-6 inches of that..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 The NAM 3km flips us over to sleet here around 2pm ... that would be lousy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: we are in such a spot where we can have 6 inches or 12 and it will be impossible to forecast...but I always hear those pingers alot early that progged Going to be a nowcast event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I think some folks are still over reacting to that mix line because of what happened December 26 with the unexpected speed of the warm layer arriving earlier than expected.... It's not from just one storm - it's happened many, many times over multiple decades in Central NJ. When the mix line or changeover stays south, we often jackpot. But it's very common for us to get 4-6 inches less than from the southern and far eastern portions of Middlesex County to the northern and and further inland portions 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Going with 6-10” for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East of the Parkway Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said: It's not from just one storm - it's happened many, many times over multiple decades in Central NJ. When the mix line or changeover stays south, we often jackpot. But it's very common for us to get 4-6 inches less than from the southern and far eastern portions of Middlesex County to the northern and and further inland portions Life east of the parkway my friend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 https://x.com/burgwx/status/2014695227408228416 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Synoptically very similar to 6z on the RGEM but less thump. Big snowfall gradient right across the urban corridor - but not much room for comfort. The overall longwave trof has steadily been shifting less sharply tilted over the past 5 or 6 runs on the RGEM if anybody wants to cycle through them on TT. This has been gradually delaying the onset and shifting the northern limit of the primary surface reflection south. I was hoping for an improvement but we got a hold with less lucky banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: The NAM 3km flips us over to sleet here around 2pm ... that would be lousy. Not saying it's wrong, but the NAM 3k is best for very short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 12 ICON total QPF storm Total snow / sleet (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, East of the Parkway said: Life east of the parkway my friend. Haha - yeah. I'm actually substantially west of the Parkway, but far enough South that we sometimes (although not quite as often) suffer from some pretty brutal cutoffs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: your talking a few miles at 60 hours - not going to be reliable at this range Also, compare out west to 6z on this model. More compressed on the western edge which pushed the primary a bit SE which is a trend we want to see continue. A definite improvement over 6z IMO, regardless of the snow map or sleet line depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, eduggs said: Synoptically very similar to 6z on the RGEM but less thump. Big snowfall gradient right across the urban corridor - but not much room for comfort. The overall longwave trof has steadily been shifting less sharply tilted over the past 5 or 6 runs on the RGEM if anybody wants to cycle through them on TT. This has been gradually delaying the onset and shifting the northern limit of the primary surface reflection south. I was hoping for an improvement but we got a hold with less lucky banding. If the overall storm evolution is shifting in a better direction that’s all I really need at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, eduggs said: Synoptically very similar to 6z on the RGEM but less thump. Big snowfall gradient right across the urban corridor - but not much room for comfort. The overall longwave trof has steadily been shifting less sharply tilted over the past 5 or 6 runs on the RGEM if anybody wants to cycle through them on TT. This has been gradually delaying the onset and shifting the northern limit of the primary surface reflection south. I was hoping for an improvement but we got a hold with less lucky banding. There is a weird dry slot. Thats why the totals were lower. All the models trended better so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Wow. Just woke up to the good ol’ NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 State of emergency for NY Remote learning possible for Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 First Call - MMU: 7-11; sleet - CPK: 6-10; sleet - SPARTA: 12-16; all snow - White Plains: 10 - 14; mostly if not all snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Synoptically very similar to 6z on the RGEM but less thump. Big snowfall gradient right across the urban corridor - but not much room for comfort. The overall longwave trof has steadily been shifting less sharply tilted over the past 5 or 6 runs on the RGEM if anybody wants to cycle through them on TT. This has been gradually delaying the onset and shifting the northern limit of the primary surface reflection south. I was hoping for an improvement but we got a hold with less lucky banding. So far every 12z run has been consistent with where the mix line reaches. As of right now anyone S of the TZ bridge is prob gonna taint at some point. North of there it’s gonna be fun to watch. Wouldn’t surprise me if the favored spots in the interior approach 24” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said: Haha - yeah. I'm actually substantially west of the Parkway, but far enough South that we sometimes (although not quite as often) suffer from some pretty brutal cutoffs i'm too far north for the huggers, which hit monmouth and ocean then scoot to long island, and too far south for the northern storms. it has been this way my whole life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Not saying it's wrong, but the NAM 3k is best for very short range. i'd use HRRR for really short term.. Nam sucks overall except sniffing out the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: There is a weird dry slot. Thats why the totals were lower. All the models trended better so far. RGEM and ICON look like holds to me in terms of the thermals. The ICON might actually be a tiny hair warmer but 6z was a weenie run. The NAM was better. I guess the positive takeaway is we have pretty good run to run consistency and even inter-model consistency now that the GFS is getting closer to consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 12Z NAM looked way better for NYC, RGEM slightly worse, expect some wobbling, going to be close in terms of mainly snow vs several hours of sleet but I think we are narrowing the borderline area to 30 miles north and south of the I80 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Definite improvements for the NAM and RGEM as the primary on both are faster to move east and do not gain as much latitude. ICON was a step back with the opposite of the above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, eduggs said: RGEM and ICON look like holds to me in terms of the thermals. The ICON might actually be a tiny hair warmer but 6z was a weenie run. The NAM was better. I guess the positive takeaway is we have pretty good run to run consistency and even inter-model consistency now that the GFS is getting closer to consensus. To me it’s been steady as she goes for the last 2 days. There’ll be a very heavy initial thump of snow then we flip to sleet at least around I-80 and south for a while, looks like around mid to late afternoon. Hopefully by then most of the precip is done. The questions are really what happens on Monday with any coastal development and how fast the dry slot gets here. The stronger primary further north also means faster dry slot. It’s fundamentally a SWFE so the flip to sleet is coming for many. The real question area for sleet to me is around White Plains area to coastal CT and northern NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Add the RRFS to the models that have improved at 12z. It shifted the thermals and surface features south. Looks like a great run for most of our forum. And it's not quite over here with some light wraparound stuff still to move through. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I don't take the ICON very seriously but the cutoff is pretty insane, 8 inches southern NYC, 20 inches at the Bronx/Westchester border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1/23 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now