NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 12z GFS AI AIGFS Ratio's will start higher beginning of storm and probably get lower as the storm progresses 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Putnam county and north doesn't change over and gets pummeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Worst case we still see a significant amount of snow Yeah with the airmass in place we know we'll at least see a very significant front end dump. It is kind of funny though (as Stormlover mentioned) that we went from worries about it possibly being suppressed with the brutal arctic airmass in place to now having mixing issues, but it's not a big surprise for this area. We've seen that many times before. It still should be our biggest snowstorm in years even if the mixing comes in a little more quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: According to pivotal maps its alot of sleet as you zoom in to regional yes I was only looking at national map but I think the primary doesn't get that far north - the strong HP will cause the transfer earlier to the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 i don't believe the CMC is right, that high pressure just can't get pushed like that from such a weak low pressure yes it's a big system but the pressure gradient isn't low enough for higher gradient to imbalance it that fast and strong! I call this run a bleep and I think it's either GFS or south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: According to pivotal maps its alot of sleet As of now the CMC has the furthest north solution. The 6z EURO was further south than 0z so hopefully a hold. Still a lot of time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GGEM is 6-10 NYC with period of sleet. GGEM does have a bit of a warm / nw tendency at this range. Many of the good storms always have a period of sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Euro at 6z trended back a bit south another similar tick and a little slower and it would look more like the GFS. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 The Canadian is NOT a good model and I wouldn’t be concerned with it at all unless it started moving back towards a more suppressed look. It’s over amplifying the trough and not handeling the airmass to the North well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 If ukie and euro follow suit its a legit concern 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Impressive model to model and run to run consistency, a few days out. Gives me some realistic hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: If ukie and euro follow suit its a legit concern Even if the UK and Euro dont show this- with four days to go, its always a possibility with EC storms of this nature, but with the level of cold forecast i think we'll do quite well before / if any changeover occurs, regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Big storms like this tend to shove the artic high away, not saying this is the case but it does throw up a red flag. We have seen it in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Big storms like this tend to shove the artic high away, not saying this is the case but it does throw up a red flag. We have seen it in the past. This is an expansive and unusually cold Arctic airmass this time. I think it'll be very difficult for low to plow through it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 the precip will shut off before we can get much sleet 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ukie doesn't look like cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: If ukie and euro follow suit its a legit concern The EURO won't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ukie is definitely a little less amped than its 00z counterpart. Stronger confluence north, slightly lower heights east. havent looked at the surface the end is definitely less amped soundings look like pure snow, even on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12Z GEFS total QPF mean Storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This is an expansive and unusually cold Arctic airmass this time. I think it'll be very difficult for low to plow through it. I’m not worried but I have seen it go from single digits to rain in the 80s. It can happen. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Ukie doesn't look like cmc Yep it does get a little mixing in here towards the end when the precip is lighter, but the damage has already been done. Nice hit on the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ukie is a much different evolution as compared to 0Z. It does mix with a little sleet but is still a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Ukie doesn't look like cmc FWIW the CMC has a history of being on the north side of the guidance at this stage. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12 UKMET Total QPF storm long duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Ukmet slaps us with 10-15”+ before a flip at the tail end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 12Z Total QPF (Storm) NYC ICON: 0.9 - 1.1 GFS: 1.1 - 1.3 GFS AI AIGFS: .09 - 1.1 GGEM: 1.1 (Partial sleet) GEFS: 0.7 - 0.8 UKMET: 1.1 (some sleet) Updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I love how we went from worrying about suppression to mixing in 24 hours. Cant it ever be easy? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Ukmet slaps us with 10-15”+ before a flip at the tail end. There’s actually a burst of snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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