Stormlover74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: gfs catching up Gives 30+ to NC 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: There was no snow up here on 12z. correct, thus me saying big improvement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: correct, thus me saying big improvement? 5 days out not bad, gfs is playing catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Good to see GFS coming around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I dont see Carolina getting 30 inches...someone might, more likely northern Va to central Jersey. That's my target range now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The phase was just a little late. Need to amplify the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Gonna wait till Thursday to make the decision to head down to family place in Ocean City Maryland. I've done a few chases down there it's great 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Gonna wait till Thursday to make the decision to head down to family place in Ocean City Maryland. I've done a few chases down there it's great Waiting until then as well - if models stay consistent I’m definitely heading down south! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS Total QPF was only a trace at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 22 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/20 18Z Total QPF ICON: (120H) in line with 12z GFS: 0.3 - 0.4 GFS AID: 0.5 - 0.6 Updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Big takeaway is all the models at the current time give some snow to the region. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Is this looking like a Sunday night into Monday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Is this looking like a Sunday night into Monday event? early afternoon Sunday should be snowing 2pm or so! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The 1/20 18z GFS showed better phasing as both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream were better aligned. The result is that snowfall got into the New York City area unlike with the 12z GFS. The 12z ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET continued to show a snowier outcome for New York City. Historical data for 6" or above Washington DC January-February snowstorms also argues strongly against a shutout in the New York City area. Within the next day or two, model skill will improve and confidence in the solutions will increase. Key factors to be resolved: 1) Jet stream interaction/Degree of phasing 2) Strength and position of Arctic high and confluence There remains a risk of suppression and/or a sharp cutoff of precipitation on the northern edge of the storm. However, New York City and its suburbs still remain very much in the game for a moderate or significant snowfall, especially when the more skillful guidance is considered. The 1/21 0z runs will provide additional insight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Been reading these forums for over 10 years but never posted. Found this account today I made back in 2014 and logged in. This is my first post on it haha. Excited for this storm! 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Pretty sure I recall that guidance for 1-23-2016 was in the 10" range for NYC up until 24-36h before event, it only took a slight northward tick on the track to bring the max snowfall axis north several degrees of latitude. I think there would be a tendency for models to overcook the depth of cold in the air mass arriving over the Great Lakes region Friday-Saturday, I am seeing some thickness values that could easily be 6-12 dm too low, in this case a weakening of the cold air barrier is your friend rather than being a problem. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Pretty sure I recall that guidance for 1-23-2016 was in the 10" range for NYC up until 24-36h before event, it only took a slight northward tick on the track to bring the max snowfall axis north several degrees of latitude. I think there would be a tendency for models to overcook the depth of cold in the air mass arriving over the Great Lakes region Friday-Saturday, I am seeing some thickness values that could easily be 6-12 dm too low, in this case a weakening of the cold air barrier is your friend rather than being a problem. Nam had us 15-20 range from 84 hours and on and kept depicting that north move every other model caved to it, GFS was last to cave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Pretty sure I recall that guidance for 1-23-2016 was in the 10" range for NYC up until 24-36h before event, it only took a slight northward tick on the track to bring the max snowfall axis north several degrees of latitude. I think there would be a tendency for models to overcook the depth of cold in the air mass arriving over the Great Lakes region Friday-Saturday, I am seeing some thickness values that could easily be 6-12 dm too low, in this case a weakening of the cold air barrier is your friend rather than being a problem. exactly.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 40 minutes ago, psv88 said: I dont see Carolina getting 30 inches...someone might, more likely northern Va to central Jersey. That's my target range now. Thats my initial thinking as well, this storm may be too strong to be as far south as depicted on the gfs but may be too cold to jackpot our area. DC-ACY seems like the sweet spot but I do think warning level snows are possible in this sub forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 31 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Is this looking like a Sunday night into Monday event? Probably too early to nail down timeframe exactly but yes probably Sunday night to Monday seems like would be the bulk of it as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Wonder what Eric Webb thinks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 19 minutes ago, Mo Snow said: Been reading these forums for over 10 years but never posted. Found this account today I made back in 2014 and logged in. This is my first post on it haha. Excited for this storm! Always room for one more. Welcome. You are among friends who will troll you anyway. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 You can see here how the timing is slightly off and instead of a consolidated trough, it gets elongated, weakens, and gets kicked East at the last momiute. Still positive trends. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The 12z trended a bit warmer I wonder if that will have any influence on how north the storm come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GEFS look great. North of the Op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wonder what Eric Webb thinks He thinks I am a weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro looks more amplified at 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, Yanksfan said: GEFS look great. North of the Op. Good sign that those have continued to improve. Someone loop the last 4-5 runs of it and the difference becomes abundantly clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Euro looks like its going to be a big hit. Also comes in earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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