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January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage


stormtracker
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Just now, DDweatherman said:

It helped a ton that it snowed for long duration and the phasing got DC/Balt into the goods there after h129. Wide precip field. Through 129 there wasn’t that great of totals Qpf wise. 

gonna be a long week.  still kinda way out there...not waaayyyy out there but enough out there in time to make our underwear feel scratchy

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Just now, BristowWx said:

gonna be a long week.  still kinda way out there...not waaayyyy out there but enough out there in time to make our underwear feel scratchy

I gotta see the maps. I thought h5 looked pretty good that run but qpf seemed kinda paltry on Randy’s maps for the phasing being “clean” coming east. 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

gonna be a long week.  still kinda way out there...not waaayyyy out there but enough out there in time to make our underwear feel scratchy

Yeah it will, the good thing is even in a less phasey solution we're most likely gonna snow.  Very likely we get at least a moderate hit.  The extra coastal stuff will take more time to be resolved. 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

The euro has been insistent on the “part 2” picking up the slack on its runs. Later hours allows the low to creep north and the n/s element keeps the snow guns on for quite a while. 

Part 2 will have terrific ratios.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Part 2 will have terrific ratios.

I'd rather have 8 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 8 hours..personal preference to watch snow fall I guess.  bet the final solution no where near final.  

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Close enough at this range though.

It seems to me a slight trend toward holding back that energy on most of the guidance (GFS obviously being the worst and most extreme offender), a trend we obviously need to stop. What's the cause of that? Is it the stronger high to the north or something else?

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