January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[stormtracker]

Atari graphics say 12-15*

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Still stuck.   Still looks just a tad flatter out in front, i can't say whether it's going to change much....still a shit ton of moisture gathering

is that a technical term? 

[Ji]

[TSSN+]

Here it comes 

 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

so roughly about 9 hours?

that's just the heavy parts.  not total storm duration

[DDweatherman]

Maps coming out now, I'll defer to our friends that like to post them, its a FOLKS. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

is that a technical term? 

Yes, it's a unit larger than a metric ton

[jayyy]

Honestly, the fact that the Euro AI is holding FIRM and has been for the past 2 days has me feeling very good about our chances. It’s been lights out inside D5. Other models show a variation of 6-12+ with the chance of some sleet at the end. Can’t be mad about where we are right now.

[TSSN+]

[NorthArlington101]

Total precip

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Total precip

Smoked 

[jayyy]

Hit us with the 10:1 and Kuchie maps NorthArlington

[jayyy]

Folks for sure

[weathercoins]

EURO looks great?  Not THAT much leeway for DC/south but that’s what we’d expect… would take this no questions asked 

[TSSN+]

Dc mixes at the very end but gets smoked before any of it. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Late ECMWF DataSubscribe

Investigating - We currently see no 12z data queued or being disseminated from ECMWF. We will process data as soon as they provide it.
Jan 21, 2026 - 12:29 EST

I know I’m a griper but are the models breaking down because paying customers are trying to use them?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, weathercoins said:

EURO looks great?  Not THAT much leeway for DC/south but that’s what we’d expect… would take this no questions asked 

It's the trade off for dealing with increasing qpf, 1.2-1.5" QPF is a prolific storm. 

[stormtracker]

@NorthArlington101  

Come see me in my office when you're done.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Wow I can't believe PHL mixes. 

[Ephesians2]

Why is there very little sleet on the Euro- just really snow and freezing rain?

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Hit us with the 10:1 and Kuchie maps NorthArlington

They take their sweet time. You'll see them about 5s after I do. WxBell still at 68

[umdterps29]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That is a VERY fast switch over to sleet/ice for east of 95. Not much time to thump before that. This is going to be depressing  to watch the NW posters get slammed while I wind up with 4 inches and a boatload of sleet

[Amped]

I like the 2 mile area of sleet between the snow and the freezing rain. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I know I’m a griper but are the models breaking down because paying customers are trying to them?

Good question.   I mean, it's across all vendors so I don't think it's a specific company.   I still don't fully understand the whole dissemination process tho

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Dc mixes at the very end but gets smoked before any of it. 

Pretty strong trend in the last 24 hours actually. Remember when 24 hours ago the GFS had no snow, was too far south? I think we still have some time to move this thing around a little. It's hard to believe the low pressure will cut much further with strong High pressure to the north though. This LP north is actually creating some stronger wind gradient in the snow zone. 

[annapolismike]

I grew up in NW Jersey.  All the big storms for the most part seemed to end with a period of sleet and ice.  God's way of locking in the snow for a while.

[bncho]

Just now, Amped said:

I like the 2 mile area of sleet between the snow and the freezing rain. 

A lot of that ZR is likely sleet, only 700mb in some of those areas is above 0C

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Atari graphics say 12-15*

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, umdterps29 said:

That is a VERY fast switch over to sleet/ice for east of 95. Not much time to thump before that. This is going to be depressing  to watch the NW posters get slammed while I wind up with 4 inches and a boatload of sleet

I actually think most of the damage is done by this point.  

[BristowWx]

Just now, bncho said:

A lot of that ZR is likely sleet, only 700mb in some of those areas is above 0C

whats the surface temp?  if i may ask