January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam, Gfs and euro. Can see Nam looks more like euro here 

What I really see here is the major divergence more so would come between the 84-108 window of time…none of these are that much different from a NA500 hemispheric perspective. 

[mappy]

A reminder

 

[weathercoins]

9 minutes ago, Nomz said:

I do a forecast for my school, I was wondering what y'all think is a reasonable range to forecast for tonight? I'll wait for the 18z suite but I'm thinking probably 4-8 for now? I want to suggest significant accumulation but keep a lid on it for now.

I did this 20+ years ago and always hyped it up too much.  Was great when the jackpot hit though.

“4-8 or 6-8 inches and possibly more, and we will know much more at the end of the week” seems fine 

[TSSN+]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

What I really see here is the major divergence more so would come between the 84-108 window of time…none of these are that much different from a NA500 hemispheric perspective. 

Take a look at it in motion. The Nam at 84 is starting to phase energy and starts to turn east while the gfs continues to dig se. 

[DDweatherman]

Time for the real 18z models..and a Prozac. Main focus is efficient release of the Baja s/w and no further slowing of that and timeline on arrival of precip. 

[StormyClearweather]

ICON looks a touch faster to me, so far. 

[mattie g]

Not seeing any major differences on Der IKON at 96.

[mattie g]

At 108, it's pressing a bit more in the upper Midwest.

[TSSN+]

So far early goings precip is further north on icon than last run. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, mattie g said:

At 108, it's pressing a bit more in the upper Midwest.

Little more north at 114. 

[IronTy]

I'm getting ready for the 18Z, anything else I need?

[LP08]

Icon leaves some of the southern vort behind, still should be good

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Icon leaves some of the southern vort behind, still should be good

Was it a full ejection at 12z?

[Nomz]

Icon probably just a hold

[Amped]

Icon is way less amped with the northern stream this run. 

[LP08]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Was it a full ejection at 12z?

It’s comes out on both, difference is the stream interaction 

[mattie g]

Looks like the upper energy gets out in front a little bit on the ICON, so it doesn't wrap up as much.

[caviman2201]

18z ICON @ 120 w/ lots of storm left to go

|\

Slight iimprovement over 12z

[stormtracker]

Looks like a hold?  Who knows.  It's not even done at the end of the run

[DDweatherman]

Just now, caviman2201 said:

18z ICON @ 120 w/ lots of storm left to go

|\

Definite improvement over 12z

It’s definitely not over 12z, but it’s not a bad look. Probably another 4-6 for the area after 120. 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, caviman2201 said:

18z ICON @ 120 w/ lots of storm left to go

|\

Definite improvement over 12z

Yeah, central VA jack looks north, as well. 

[DDweatherman]

Some of the models have shown the n/s getting a little quick, which wouldn’t kill the storm quite like the Baja s/w getting buried, but it would reduce the probability of long duration precipitation and some Of the high end upside. 

[Interstate]

Yeah I do not get why some models reduce their run lengths on off hours.

[bncho]

Just now, Interstate said:

Yeah I do not get why some models reduce their run lengths on off hours.

probably a money issue

[StormyClearweather]

I mean it's noise, but it's a little better verbatim, though I wonder if this is more just it being a little faster than anything.

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like a hold?  Who knows.  It's not even done at the end of the run

I think so. Gets it done (or would get it done), but just a bit differently than at 12z.

[Eskimo Joe]

For our lower Delmarva / southern MD / VA tidewater folks. Only two 12z Euro AI EPS members have below 10" of snow for Virginia Beach. What an incredibly consistent signal at this range, which is right in the Euro AI EPS's wheelhouse.

 

 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Interstate said:

Yeah I do not get why some models reduce their run lengths on off hours.

Probably supercomputer time being limited. It might be shared with other tasks. 

[poprock49]

Hey all,

I'm here to add to the barrage of teenagers (HS, I'm roughly between @bncho and @Nomz). Been heavily lurking for about a year but I'm so hyped for this storm I finally decided to post. My APUSH teacher had some sage advice for my class today that I'll share here: "don't get too excited, the energy warms up the atmosphere." lol. 

Let's reel this one in! 

[Eskimo Joe]

Today we start to cross the HR120 (D5) threshold. Should see the guidance really tighten up over the next 24 hours. Would caution folks here that might result in some extreme solutions getting eliminated and thus, reducing a mean snowfall here or there. That does not mean this is "trending towards a bust", but rather just narrowing towards a better forecast.