WxUSAF Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS compared to OZ. North shift bay-bee 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6hrs snowfall off latest Sref. Pretty far north. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_006h-mean-imp&rh=2026012015&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 SREF looks north 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Sleet bombs can be fun. Especially with an arctic outbreak following it. Literal glacier situation. True. Sleet might be underrated. Big FZRA storms I can do without, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: That is my greatest memory of Bob Ryan. I used to “argue” with him on tv and loved watching him increase the forecast. Never thought anything could eclipse 1996 in DC area and then 2010 and 2016 blew past it. Bob Ryan led the charge with 20-30” forecast in 1996. That was really the first Internet storm with SNONUT and PTRAVEL on the dial up discussion boards. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: North shift bay-bee Just keep creeping north 20 miles per day and we are in prime time. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 15Z NBM This accumulation distribution matches the January 22/23 1940 storm pretty closely. Richmond received 21" and DC got 15". I believe that is still the biggest storm on record for Richmond. No idea if any part of the pattern or storm evolution is also a match, but there is at least historical precedence for accumulations like this. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 More watches popping down in the plains. Can’t wait to see the map light up over the next couple days. There’s going to be a ton of people under winter headlines. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said: This accumulation distribution matches the January 22/23 1940 storm pretty closely. Richmond received 21" and DC got 15". I believe that is still the biggest storm on record for Richmond. No idea if any part of the pattern or storm evolution is also a match, but there is at least historical precedence for accumulations like this. 1940? Well dang Baltimore must've gotten skunked then because BWI recorded 9.8 inches on the month, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Just keep creeping north 20 miles per day and we are in prime time. I don't know ow about that especially if it brings a chance of ice into Magnolia Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: What an awesome batch of overnight runs. To make things even better, I get to be on a panel at IMD today that moderate by Dr. Louis Uccellini. Wow the U of KU himself??? That is awesome! 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wow the U of KU himself??? That is awesome! I got my KU book signed by him years ago. Great dude. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Flying down to DC Monday morning. I asked the Vermont cold to head down a few days ahead of me. You're welcome. 14 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 13 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said: This accumulation distribution matches the January 22/23 1940 storm pretty closely. Richmond received 21" and DC got 15". I believe that is still the biggest storm on record for Richmond. No idea if any part of the pattern or storm evolution is also a match, but there is at least historical precedence for accumulations like this. Interesting that storm was also followed by a major arctic blast. Richmond recorded it's record low of -12 on the 29th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, das said: Flying down to DC Monday morning. I asked the Vermont cold to head down a few days ahead of me. You're welcome. You think so, huh? 2 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, das said: Flying down to DC Monday morning. I asked the Vermont cold to head down a few days ahead of me. You're welcome. Dude I don't think ur flying anywhere Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: You think so, huh? Yep. I'll tell the pilots and DCA management that I have some serious snow to measure IMBY in Clarksburg. Slantsticking is serious government business. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You think so, huh? Hope the big 3 airports are all closed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18Z started. WB 18Z HRRR. Low moving onto west coast not diving SE toward Baha. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Didn’t see the EuroAI ensembles posted, but has 1” QPF to DC-Annapolis or so. Based on H5, looks to my eye like the mean has better phasing than the Op EuroAI. Overall a really strong 12z suite. Not as consistent as 0z and 6z thanks to the GFS and AIGFS, but otherwise great consensus. It has a 50% chance of IAD & DCA exceeding a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Man. Watching some live vids of LE in NY right now. They are getting hammered. Heavy snow and 14 degrees. Hopefully a taste of what we will be seeing in a couple of days. Although from completely different synoptics 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 17 minutes ago, das said: Yep. I'll tell the pilots and DCA management that I have some serious snow to measure IMBY in Clarksburg. Slantsticking is serious government business. Can you show the folks at DCA the proper way of slantsticking...I swear if I have 2 ft and they have 9.2" my head will explode! 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, MacChump said: stand your ground, friend Come out back, let me holla at you real quick 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Didn’t see the EuroAI ensembles posted, but has 1” QPF to DC-Annapolis or so. Based on H5, looks to my eye like the mean has better phasing than the Op EuroAI. Overall a really strong 12z suite. Not as consistent as 0z and 6z thanks to the GFS and AIGFS, but otherwise great consensus. 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Like that the EPS got a lil better 59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: North shift bay-bee That EPS trend gif might be the most exciting thing I saw out of the 12z suite. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 48 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wow the U of KU himself??? That is awesome! Yes @wxmeddlerand I were on a panel he moderated. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 NWS 3-7 day outlook for heavy snow pushed NW 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 314 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is continuing to increase for a significant winter storm for the region Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, snow accumulations increase for upslope snow showers in the Alleghenies Wednesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Significant winter storm expected across the Mid- Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. - 2) Accumulating snow is likely along the Alleghenies Wednesday night through Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. Broad upper troughing will remain established across the Great Lks into the northern Mid-Atlantic through at least early next week. Southern stream energy is expected to interact with very cold air to the north to produce moderate to heavy snow across the area this weekend. Looking at most recent model data, the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM remain the furthest south and weakest solutions as it leaves more energy cut off while the 12Z EC and Canadian models show more energy getting absorbed into the northern stream. The 12Z EPS and AIFS are more consistent with their deterministic runs while the GFES shows a very different solution to its deterministic run. Will continue to highlight a significant winter storm affecting the area this weekend in our Hazardous Weather Outlook. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 314 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence is continuing to increase for a significant winter storm for the region Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, snow accumulations increase for upslope snow showers in the Alleghenies Wednesday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Significant winter storm expected across the Mid- Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. - 2) Accumulating snow is likely along the Alleghenies Wednesday night through Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week. Broad upper troughing will remain established across the Great Lks into the northern Mid-Atlantic through at least early next week. Southern stream energy is expected to interact with very cold air to the north to produce moderate to heavy snow across the area this weekend. Looking at most recent model data, the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM remain the furthest south and weakest solutions as it leaves more energy cut off while the 12Z EC and Canadian models show more energy getting absorbed into the northern stream. The 12Z EPS and AIFS are more consistent with their deterministic runs while the GFES shows a very different solution to its deterministic run. Will continue to highlight a significant winter storm affecting the area this weekend in our Hazardous Weather Outlook. No mention of the Icon? I think we're The only ones that actually look at that model lol 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20 Author Share Posted January 20 Yay, meeting time at work. Will return for the GFS/ICON. Hopefully. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yet zwyts can post here to tell us he can’t post here? It was confusing. i too agree with the EPS trend gif being my favorite part of 12z, maybe minus the UK thrashing us all again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said: 12z 6z You can also see a stronger Tennessee valley handoff signal as well on 12z. How do you tell that from these 2 charts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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