January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS compared to OZ.

North shift bay-bee

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6hrs snowfall off latest Sref. Pretty far north.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_006h-mean-imp&rh=2026012015&fh=87&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

SREF looks north

[87storms]

17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Sleet bombs can be fun. Especially with an arctic outbreak following it. Literal glacier situation. 

True. Sleet might be underrated. Big FZRA storms I can do without, though.

[Jersey Andrew]

1 minute ago, snowmagnet said:

That is my greatest memory of Bob Ryan. I used to “argue” with him on tv and loved watching him increase the forecast. 

Never thought anything could eclipse 1996 in DC area and then 2010 and 2016 blew past it. Bob Ryan led the charge with 20-30” forecast in 1996. That was really the first Internet storm with SNONUT and PTRAVEL on the dial up discussion boards.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

North shift bay-bee

Just keep creeping north 20 miles per day and we are in prime time. 

[Hank Scorpio]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 15Z NBM

This accumulation distribution matches the January 22/23 1940 storm pretty closely. Richmond received 21" and DC got 15". I believe that is still the biggest storm on record for Richmond. 

No idea if any part of the pattern or storm evolution is also a match, but there is at least historical precedence for accumulations like this. 

[TSSN+]

More watches popping down in the plains. Can’t wait to see the map light up over the next couple days. There’s going to be a ton of people under winter headlines. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

This accumulation distribution matches the January 22/23 1940 storm pretty closely. Richmond received 21" and DC got 15". I believe that is still the biggest storm on record for Richmond. 

No idea if any part of the pattern or storm evolution is also a match, but there is at least historical precedence for accumulations like this. 

1940? Well dang Baltimore must've gotten skunked then because BWI recorded 9.8 inches on the month, lol

[GreyHat]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Just keep creeping north 20 miles per day and we are in prime time. 

I don't know ow about that especially if it brings a chance of ice into Magnolia Delaware. 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What an awesome batch of overnight runs. To make things even better, I get to be on a panel at IMD today that moderate by Dr. Louis Uccellini. 

Wow the U of KU himself??? That is awesome!

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow the U of KU himself??? That is awesome!

I got my KU book signed by him years ago. Great dude.

[das]

Flying down to DC Monday morning.  I asked the Vermont cold to head down a few days ahead of me.  You're welcome.

[clskinsfan]

13 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

This accumulation distribution matches the January 22/23 1940 storm pretty closely. Richmond received 21" and DC got 15". I believe that is still the biggest storm on record for Richmond. 

No idea if any part of the pattern or storm evolution is also a match, but there is at least historical precedence for accumulations like this. 

Interesting that storm was also followed by a major arctic blast. Richmond recorded it's record low of -12 on the 29th.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, das said:

Flying down to DC Monday morning.  I asked the Vermont cold to head down a few days ahead of me.  You're welcome.

You think so, huh?

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, das said:

Flying down to DC Monday morning.  I asked the Vermont cold to head down a few days ahead of me.  You're welcome.

Dude I don't think ur flying anywhere Monday 

[das]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

You think so, huh?

Yep.  I'll tell the pilots and DCA management that I have some serious snow to measure IMBY in Clarksburg.  Slantsticking is serious government business.

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You think so, huh?

Hope the big 3 airports are all closed.

[Weather Will]

18Z started.  WB 18Z HRRR. Low moving onto west coast not diving SE toward Baha. 

[Eskimo Joe]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Didn’t see the EuroAI ensembles posted, but has 1” QPF to DC-Annapolis or so. Based on H5, looks to my eye like the mean has better phasing than the Op EuroAI. 
 

Overall a really strong 12z suite. Not as consistent as 0z and 6z thanks to the GFS and AIGFS, but otherwise great consensus.

It has a 50% chance of IAD & DCA exceeding a foot of snow. 

[clskinsfan]

Man. Watching some live vids of LE in NY right now. They are getting hammered. Heavy snow and 14 degrees. Hopefully a taste of what we will be seeing in a couple of days. Although from completely different synoptics

[GATECH]

17 minutes ago, das said:

Yep.  I'll tell the pilots and DCA management that I have some serious snow to measure IMBY in Clarksburg.  Slantsticking is serious government business.

Can you show the folks at DCA the proper way of slantsticking...I swear if I have 2 ft and they have 9.2" my head will explode!

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, MacChump said:

stand your ground, friend

Come out back, let me holla at you real quick

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Didn’t see the EuroAI ensembles posted, but has 1” QPF to DC-Annapolis or so. Based on H5, looks to my eye like the mean has better phasing than the Op EuroAI. 
 

Overall a really strong 12z suite. Not as consistent as 0z and 6z thanks to the GFS and AIGFS, but otherwise great consensus.

 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Like that the EPS got a lil better

 

59 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

North shift bay-bee

That EPS trend gif might be the most exciting thing I saw out of the 12z suite. 

[Eskimo Joe]

48 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow the U of KU himself??? That is awesome!

Yes @wxmeddlerand I were on a panel he moderated.

[bncho]

NWS 3-7 day outlook for heavy snow pushed NW

[stormtracker]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
314 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is continuing to increase for a significant winter
storm for the region Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, snow
accumulations increase for upslope snow showers in the
Alleghenies Wednesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-  1) Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-
  Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing
  widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area
  Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source
  for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week.

- 2) Accumulating snow is likely along the Alleghenies Wednesday
  night through Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic
high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures
this weekend into early next week.

Broad upper troughing will remain established across the Great Lks
into the northern Mid-Atlantic through at least early next week.
Southern stream energy is expected to interact with very cold air to
the north to produce moderate to heavy snow across the area this
weekend. Looking at most recent model data, the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM
remain the furthest south and weakest solutions as it leaves more
energy cut off while the 12Z EC and Canadian models show more energy
getting absorbed into the northern stream. The 12Z EPS and AIFS are
more consistent with their deterministic runs while the GFES shows a
very different solution to its deterministic run. Will continue to
highlight a significant winter storm affecting the area this weekend
in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
314 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is continuing to increase for a significant winter
storm for the region Saturday into Sunday. Additionally, snow
accumulations increase for upslope snow showers in the
Alleghenies Wednesday night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
-  1) Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-
  Atlantic states late Saturday through Sunday bringing
  widespread snow. Arctic high pressure will build into the area
  Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source
  for very cold temperatures this weekend into early next week.

- 2) Accumulating snow is likely along the Alleghenies Wednesday
  night through Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant winter storm expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states late Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread snow. Arctic
high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures
this weekend into early next week.

Broad upper troughing will remain established across the Great Lks
into the northern Mid-Atlantic through at least early next week.
Southern stream energy is expected to interact with very cold air to
the north to produce moderate to heavy snow across the area this
weekend. Looking at most recent model data, the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM
remain the furthest south and weakest solutions as it leaves more
energy cut off while the 12Z EC and Canadian models show more energy
getting absorbed into the northern stream. The 12Z EPS and AIFS are
more consistent with their deterministic runs while the GFES shows a
very different solution to its deterministic run. Will continue to
highlight a significant winter storm affecting the area this weekend
in our Hazardous Weather Outlook.

No mention of the Icon? 

I think we're The only ones that actually look at that model lol

[stormtracker]

Yay, meeting time at work.   Will return for the GFS/ICON.  Hopefully.

[DDweatherman]

Yet zwyts can post here to tell us he can’t post here? It was confusing.

i too agree with the EPS trend gif being my favorite part of 12z, maybe minus the UK thrashing us all again 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

 

12z

6z

You can also see a stronger Tennessee valley handoff signal as well on 12z. 

How do you tell that from these 2 charts?