January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[DDweatherman]

It helped a ton that it snowed for long duration and the phasing got DC/Balt into the goods there after h129. Wide precip field. Through 129 there wasn’t that great of totals Qpf wise. 

[stormtracker]

@NorthArlington101 you know what time it is

[TSSN+]

Well got a general idea but will be nice to see when the pretty non 1967 maps come out shortly. 

[DDweatherman]

The euro has been insistent on the “part 2” picking up the slack on its runs. Later hours allows the low to creep north and the n/s element keeps the snow guns on for quite a while. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

@NorthArlington101 you know what time it is

I’ll be able to get total QPF shortly but think it’s about 9” 10:1 for DCA. Please hold 

[BristowWx]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

It helped a ton that it snowed for long duration and the phasing got DC/Balt into the goods there after h129. Wide precip field. Through 129 there wasn’t that great of totals Qpf wise. 

gonna be a long week.  still kinda way out there...not waaayyyy out there but enough out there in time to make our underwear feel scratchy

[bncho]

1" QPF all the way to DC

[T. August]

DC pushing 10” 10:1 at 138

[DDweatherman]

Just now, BristowWx said:

gonna be a long week.  still kinda way out there...not waaayyyy out there but enough out there in time to make our underwear feel scratchy

I gotta see the maps. I thought h5 looked pretty good that run but qpf seemed kinda paltry on Randy’s maps for the phasing being “clean” coming east. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, BristowWx said:

gonna be a long week.  still kinda way out there...not waaayyyy out there but enough out there in time to make our underwear feel scratchy

Yeah it will, the good thing is even in a less phasey solution we're most likely gonna snow.  Very likely we get at least a moderate hit.  The extra coastal stuff will take more time to be resolved. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll be able to get total QPF shortly but think it’s about 9” 10:1 for DCA. Please hold 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

The euro has been insistent on the “part 2” picking up the slack on its runs. Later hours allows the low to creep north and the n/s element keeps the snow guns on for quite a while. 

Part 2 will have terrific ratios.

[T. August]

My favorite thing about this run is we got the start time under 5 days

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

0z comparison?

[Ji]

definitely a step back from 6z with the phasing

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Part 2 will have terrific ratios.

I'd rather have 8 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 8 hours..personal preference to watch snow fall I guess.  bet the final solution no where near final.  

[Alfoman]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

0z comparison?

0Z had around .97 QPF in the city, so a very slight step back but mostly just noise 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

definitely a step back from 6z with the phasing

Close enough at this range though.

[bncho]

12z Euro holds

[clskinsfan]

Nothing wrong with this run at all. It's 8-12+ for everyone. 

[Winter Wizard]

Definitely good to see a more meridional height field. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

definitely a step back from 6z with the phasing

This is 6z same time. That trough in Canada is further south this run and looks a bit stronger. That could be messing up the full phase for now.

[stormtracker]

I'm good my 6 to 10 goal is still in range.   What's next?

[StormyClearweather]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Close enough at this range though.

It seems to me a slight trend toward holding back that energy on most of the guidance (GFS obviously being the worst and most extreme offender), a trend we obviously need to stop. What's the cause of that? Is it the stronger high to the north or something else?

[bncho]

[Alfoman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

definitely a step back from 6z with the phasing

Actually think that is the fault of our NS SW as it digs deeper over the Midwest but moves a bit faster than 6Z did which led to a messier downstream phase

[wasnow215]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm good my 6 to 10 goal is still in range.   What's next?

Euro snow maps? Haha

[Ji]

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

I mean...that is indeed a hold! Just gotta stay level-headed (good luck with that, lol).

[HighStakes]

Definitely like seeing no sharp cutoff. Good snows make well north of us.